The 76ers came back from down 3-1 against the Celtics and advanced to face another old rival with the Knicks awaiting them in the second round. This sets up a matchup of All-Star duos with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid taking on Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Maxey and Brunson both averaged over 6 assists per game, and they typically set up their big men. However, tonight and in this series, it may be the other way around.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Monday, May 4.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for 76ers vs. Knicks
The Angle: All-Star Point Guards Score, Big Men Distribute
Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points
While Embiid's injury status is always a lingering question for the Sixers, they can usually count on Maxey to deliver. In the regular season, he averaged 28 points with and without Embiid. That carried over into the playoffs when he averaged 27 points in the first round against Boston. He scored 25 points in the final of the seven games, including 30 points in Game 6 and Game 7.
It was not the first time that Maxey proved he was capable of rising to the moment in the playoffs. He is now averaging 23.4 points over his last 36 playoff games on 46/40/93 shooting splits. Six of those games were in the first round series against the Knicks in the 2024 playoffs. Maxey averaged 29.8 points per game while having games of 33, 35, 25, and 46 points.
Overall, Maxey is averaging 29.4 points over his last 15 games against the Knicks. While the Knicks have OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges as perimeter defenders, one of them will likely be on Paul George. Additionally, Maxey's quickness poses matchup problems for them and Josh Hart is not a great option on him either.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Maxey Points / Embiid Assists + Brunson Points / Towns Assists
On the other side of that first round matchup was Brunson, who was in his second playoff run with the Knicks. In 48 playoff games as a Knick, Brunson is averaging 29.5 points per game on 46/34/84 shooting splits. Brunson has averaged 28.5 points over his last 17 games against the 76ers.
In that playoff series against them, he averaged 35.5 points and scored 39 points in the final four games. While he has become less heliocentric since then under Mike Brown, he still scored 25+ points in four of the six games against Atlanta in the first round. That includes 39 points in the pivotal Game 5.
He averaged 21 field goal attempts per game against the Hawks. If that volume continues, he should get 25-30 points tonight.
Pick: Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
Joel Embiid Over 4.5 Assists
Averaging 3.9 assists per game this season, Embiid has essentially averaged four assists per game in each of the last five seasons. It is an underrated part of his game because he is such a dominant scorer. However, when he returned against the Celtics last round, he recorded six assists in all four games with eight assists in two of them.
An interesting subplot of this series will be the matchup against Towns as well as the personal beef with the two. Over the last five seasons, Embiid has averaged 33.7 points per game against Towns, but also 4.3 assists.
The Knicks probably don't want Towns defending Embiid 1-on-1 too often, so I would expect them to run some double teams at Embiid. That will set up more assist opportunities for him, some to Maxey and others to George and VJ Edgecombe among others.
Embiid has had five assists in seven of his last 10 games against the Knicks. That includes 10 assists in a triple-double in the last playoff matchup while he was playing on one leg in the series. With the team playing through him (36.6% usage rate), five to eight assists should be on the table tonight.
Pick: Joel Embiid Over 4.5 Assists
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 Assists
The Knicks seemed to flip the series in Game 4 against the Hawks when they ran their offense through Towns. However, that did not necessarily translate into more points. Towns did average 18.7 points in the series, but he scored 20, 16, and 12 points in the Knicks' final three victories.
Instead, he had 10 assists in two of the final three games, both triple-doubles. Towns finished the series, averaging six assists per game with at least four assists in five of the six games.
The Sixers finished the regular season 19th in assists allowed per game and 13th specifically against centers. Towns had five assists in his last game against them. He has recorded six assists in just 10 games this season, but seven of those games have happened in his last 20 games.
If the Knicks continue running their offense through him, the assists may continue to pile up for him.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 Assists
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+654)
- Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points
- Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
- Joel Embiid Over 4.5 Assists
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 Assists
Compounding Angle (+19059)
- Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points
- Jalen Brunson 30+ Points
- Joel Embiid 8+ Assists
- Karl-Anthony 6+ Assists
