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Updated NBA Finals Series Odds Tracker: Heat Still Alive After Game 5 Thriller

Updated NBA Finals Series Odds Tracker: Heat Still Alive After Game 5 Thriller article feature image

Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat reacts during Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

  • The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat are in the ultimate battle of favorite vs. underdog in the NBA Finals.
  • The Lakers currently hold a 3-1 lead over the Heat entering Game 5.
  • Below you'll find odds to win the series, Finals MVP odds, Finals schedule and more.

Lakers vs. Heat Series Odds

Odds as of Friday 11:45 p.m. ET and via BetMGM

 Lakers  Heat
Series Winner -715 [Bet Now] +500 [Bet Now]
Win in 4 -176 [Bet Now] +5000 [Bet Now]
Win in 5 -334  [Bet Now] +6500 [Bet Now]
Win in 6 -200 [Bet Now]  +4000 [Bet Now]
Win in 7 +300 [Bet Now]  +500 [Bet Now]

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Series Picks | MVP Odds | MVP Picks | Finals Schedule

The Miami Heat just won’t quit. They entered Game 5 as 7.5-point underdogs (+270 on the moneyline) and trailed the Lakers less than 20 seconds to go, but were able to pull out a gritty 111-108 win thanks to the outstanding play of Jimmy Butler.

Butler’s second 30-point triple-double of the NBA Finals helped the Heat’s title odds move from +2000 pregame to +500 entering Game 6 on Sunday.

Below you’ll find everything you’ll need to bet on this series from outright championship winner odds to Finals MVP odds and more.

Previous Odds Updates

Oct. 9
The Los Angeles Lakers won a slow-paced and gritty Game 4 Tuesday to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals over the Miami Heat. The Heat were able to keep it close throughout and even got a back door cover courtesy of a Tyler Herro 3-pointer down nine points with less than five seconds to go.

The Heat’s odds have dropped to +2000 (4.7% implied odds), while the Lakers’ odds have moved to -10000. The Lakers have opened as 7.5-point favorites in Game 5 — the same game they’ve closed out every other round during their postseason run.

Oct. 6
In typical Miami Heat fashion, Jimmy Butler and Co. were able to out-hustle the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 to get on the board in the series. Butler had a historic performance with a 40-point triple-double, just the third such game in NBA Finals history.

The win changed the complexion of the series that felt like it was headed toward a Lakers sweep. The Heat’s odds moved from +1600 (5.8% implied) to win the series to +1100 (8.3% implied) after Game 3. Oddsmakers at BetMGM still expect the Lakers to win the series quickly and have the Lakers winning in five games listed at -139.

Oct. 4
The Lakers controlled Game 2 from start to finish on their way to another double-digit win and a 2-0 series lead. The Heat, to their credit, gave a valiant effort, but can’t overcome the Heat’s size without their All-Star center Bam Adebayo who is dealing with neck strain.

Adebayo said he hopes to play in Game 3, but oddsmakers don’t seem to have much faith in that making a difference in this series. The Heat’s odds have dropped to +1600 (5.8% implied odds) and they are nearly double-digit dogs in a must-win Game 3. If Sunday’s game follows the trend of the past two matchups, the only suspense will be whether LeBron James or Anthony Davis wins series MVP.

Oct. 2
It took the Los Angeles Lakers half a quarter to shake off the NBA Finals nerves, but they eventually put on the afterburners and jumped out to 32-point lead at one point on their way to a huge Game 1 win.

The Miami Heat accumulated some unfortunate injuries in the process. Jimmy Butler suffered an ankle sprain, Bam Adebayo left the game with a left shoulder strain and Goran Dragic suffered a plantar tear in his left foot. Our NBA Insiders tool projects Adebayo’s chances of playing in Game 2  at around 70% while Dragic will be out for the foreseeable future.

The Heat’s odds have taken a hit entering Game 2 as their implied odds were cut in half from 25% to 12.5%. The Lakers, who were heavy favorites entering this series saw their odds to win this series by a sweep move from +450 (18%) to +230 (30%).

Sept. 30
It has been 344 days since this NBA season started, but we have officially reached the NBA Finals! The Miami Heat clinched the East in six games over the Boston Celtics; the Los Angeles Lakers clinched the West in five games over the Denver Nuggets.

Now the Heat and Lakers will meet in a Finals series that was rather improbable 344 days ago — this exact matchup had 100-1 odds at PointsBet in the preseason.

Naturally, the biggest underdogs in nearly two decades to make the Finals are underdogs to win the Finals — the Heat likely wouldn’t have it any other way. At +300, the Heat’s odds translate to 25% implied odds.

The Lakers are -358 to win the NBA title (78% implied odds) and haven’t lost two games in any of their three series during this run in the postseason. Bet MGM also has odds on the series spread with the Lakers covering -1.5 games listed at -182. The over for 5.5 total games in the series is set at -120 with the under at +100.

Staff Series Bets

Matt Moore: Miami Heat (+300)
The Lakers usually win the Finals. That’s just the way of the universe. But I can’t just shut off my analyst brain for the narrative, so I’m betting Heat at +300 because I think this is much closer to a 50/50 series at its start and the implied probability is 25%.

Brandon Anderson: Lakers to Win Series from Behind (+250)
I think the Heat can go up 1-0 or 2-1, but the Lakers still take the series. This lets me give the Heat some real credit for the challenge they’ll present and multiple outs for them to lead the series, while ultimately still rolling with the favorite I expect to win in the end.

Joe Dellera: Lakers in 5 (+300)
The Lakers are the better team. They have the best two players, James and Anthony Davis, along with complementary role players that Frank Vogel has used to perfection this entire postseason. I think Miami can steal one game, but I do not like their long-term prospects in this series.

Reed Wallach: Lakers in 6 (+325)
I think this is going to be a back and forth series, but the Lakers’ duo of James and Davis find ways to win. I like taking this in six games because it also gives me potential outs as the series goes longer to hedge or work out other ways to maximize the value of my bet.

NBA Finals MVP Odds

Odds as of Saturday 3 p.m. ET and via BetMGM 

Player Finals MVP Odds
LeBron James -500 [Bet Now]
Jimmy Butler +525 [Bet Now]
Anthony Davis +1000 [Bet Now]
Bam Adebayo +155000 [Bet Now]
Tyler Herro +30000 [Bet Now]
Rajon Rondo +50000 [Bet Now]
Kyle Kuzma +100000 [Bet Now]
Duncan Robinson +100000 [Bet Now]
Goran Dragic +200000 [Bet Now]
Danny Green +250000 [Bet Now]
Dwight Howard +200000 [Bet Now]
Markieff Morris +250000 [Bet Now]
Dion Waiters +250000 [Bet Now]
Andre Iguodala +300000 [Bet Now]
Kelly Olynyk +300000 [Bet Now]
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope +500000 [Bet Now]
Alex Caruso +500000 [Bet Now]
JaVale McGee +500000 [Bet Now]
JR Smith +500000 [Bet Now]
Kendrick Nunn +500000 [Bet Now]

Jimmy Butler has been nothing short of amazing in this series and he has now moved past Anthony Davis in terms of NBA Finals MVP odds.

Butler is averaging 29 points and 10.2 assists per game while shooting 55% from the field and 92% from the free throw line. The five-time All-Star is putting up the best numbers he’s ever had in his career on the biggest stage and is a huge reason why the Heat have a legitimate shot to win it.

LeBron James still comfortably leads the way and had another ho-hum 40 point game while hitting six 3-pointers. Based on the way Game 5 played out, James will somehow need to do more if he plans on winning his fourth NBA Finals MVP award.

Previous MVP Updates

Oct. 9
You may be aware of this, but LeBron James is quite good in closeout games. Oddsmakers are apparently aware of that fact as well as his odds to win NBA Finals MVP have moved from -500 (83.3% implied odds) to -834 (89.2% implied).

James has already notched two 35-point triple-doubles in closeout games this postseason and a performance like that would go a long way to helping him make his case over his teammate Anthony Davis (+500 odds to win Finals MVP).

Oct. 7
LeBron James was quiet to start, but had another near triple-double in Game 4 with 28 points, eight assists and 12 rebounds, while Anthony Davis pitched in with 22 points, nine rebounds and four blocks.

The two Lakers stars have been vital to every win in these Finals, but James’ odds to win Finals MVP soared after the win Tuesday. James moved from a -139 favorite to a -500 favorite to win the award ahead of Game 5. Davis’ odds to win dropped back to +260 after Game 4.

Oct. 6
Check out the numbers the Lakers two stars are putting up through two NBA Finals games:

  • James: 29.0 PPG | 9.0 APG | 11 RPG | 54% FG | 41% 3FG
  • Davis: 33.0  PPG | 11.5 RPG | 63% FG | 60% 3FG | 100% FT

Two players accounting for 62 points per game in the NBA Finals is unreal. Davis shooting 63% from the field in the Finals is unreal. James nearly averaging a 30-point triple-double at 35 years old is … unreal.

These performances will make it tough on voters to pick a Finals MVP winner, but oddsmakers have James as the frontrunner. Davis’ chances to win the award moved from +200 (33.3% implied) to +145 (40.8% implied) after back-to-back 30-point games. With Adebayo’s status for the remainder of the series up in the air, there isn’t much stopping Davis from continuing his impressive run.

Oct. 2
LeBron James was leading the way for Finals MVP entering Game 1 and after nearly posting a triple-double (25 points, 13 rebounds, nine assists) James is still the front-runner.

Anthony Davis had an even more dominant performance in the Lakers’ blowout win with 34 points, nine rebounds, five assists and three blocks, but didn’t see his odds move past the King’s.

Sept. 30
There are two former NBA Finals MVP winners in this series: LeBron James (2012, 2013, 2016) and Andre Iguodala (2015).

James is the clear favorite to win the award (-143) averaging 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.9 assists in 15 games this postseason. Iguodala is on the far end of the odds board at 750-1. Anthony Davis is second in terms of odds (+280) followed by Jimmy Butler (+550) and Bam Adebayo (18-1).

Staff Finals MVP Bets

Brandon Anderson: LeBron James (-143)
This is the best series bet on the board. If the Lakers win the Finals, there’s only one MVP possibility. Betting LeBron to win Finals MVP is a Lakers series bet, and it’s darn near +EV odds.

Raheem Palmer: LeBron James (-143)
James will have the highest usage rate on his team and thus, he’ll have the best numbers. LeBron complained about being overlooked for the regular season MVP Award, he won’t be overlooked this time.

Matt Moore: Bam Adebayo (18-1)
If the Heat win (and they certainly can win), the voters will reward not only a versatile stat line, but his defense of Davis  (see: Leonard, Kawhi, 2014, and Iguodala, Andre, 2015).

Malik Smith: Anthony Davis (+300)
If Davis maintains his play offensively and defensively (and maybe rebounds a little) I think he has a great chance to become the first Lakers’ big man since Shaquille O’Neal to take home the Finals MVP.

Lakers vs. Heat NBA Finals Schedule

  • Game 1: Lakers 116, Heat 98
  • Game 2: Lakers 124, Heat 114
  • Game 3: Heat 115, Lakers 104
  • Game 4: Lakers 102, Heat 96
  • Game 5: Heat 111, Lakers 108
  • Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 11 (If Nec.)
  • Game 7: Wednesday, Oct. 13 (If Nec.)

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