Nuggets vs. Blazers Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Denver Cover at Home?

Nuggets vs. Blazers Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Denver Cover at Home? article feature image
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27)

Game 5 Betting Odds: Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

  • Spread: Nuggets -4.5
  • Over/Under: 213.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Tied 2-2

>> All odds as of Monday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


The young Nuggets were able to grab a much-needed road victory in Game 4 to even this series.

Can they take care of business at home tonight? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

Under coach Terry Stotts, the Blazers have had a tough time bouncing back in the playoffs after a loss. Portland is 8-15 ATS (34.8%) after a straight-up loss in the playoffs under Stotts, making him the third-least profitable coach in this spot since 2012, his first season in Portland.

Entering the 2019 playoffs, Stotts was 0-10 straight-up on the road after a straight-up loss in the playoffs with the Blazers. In this year’s postseason, however, Portland is 2-0 straight-up and ATS on the road in this spot. – Evan Abrams

Of the eight remaining teams in the NBA Playoffs, only the Denver Nuggets failed to make the playoffs last year. Those teams have historically been poor ATS late in playoff series.

Since 2005, teams that failed to make the postseason the year before are an abysmal 80-107-4 ATS (42.8%) in Games 5-7. They are 7-17 ATS (29.2%) the last three seasons and 22-38 ATS (36.7%) since 2013-14.

Non-playoff teams from the year before against teams that did make the playoffs have gone just 46-73-2 ATS (38.7%) in Games 5-7. Those teams are 2-5 ATS so far in the 2019 playoffs. – Abrams


Mears: How I’m Handicapping Game 5


Evan gave some really cool trends above. Here are a few more: First, per Bet Labs, it has been profitable to bet favorites when they’re getting more money than spread bets:

Those teams have gone a ridiculous 104-53-1 (66.2%) ATS since 2015, including 17-6 (73.9%) just this season. As of Monday night, the Nuggets are getting 60% of the spread bets but 73% of the money. It is early as of this writing, however, so make sure to monitor all of the public betting percentages in our app to see if this trend matches for this game.

Another trend: It’s been profitable historically to fade the public on over/unders:

Overs or unders (either one) getting less than 50% of the bets have historically hit at a 60% rate, going above or below the number by an average of 4.34 points per game. Matches for this trend have gone 12-7-1 just this season, and currently the under on this game is a match, as 61% of the bets are on the over.

It’s not wise to blindly follow a trend, but I do think the Nuggets are intriguing for the rest of this series. First, they have perhaps the largest home-court advantage in all of sports; during the regular season they went an impressive 25-16 ATS in Denver. And second, they’ve consistently been getting better shots than the Blazers, which is more important to me than pure field goal percentage.

According to NBA.com, the Nuggets have been “wide open” — a defender six-plus feet away — on 21.5% of their shots compared to 16.6% for Portland. They’ve been wide open on 19.1% of their 3-pointers compared to 13.5% for the Blazers.

Shot quality is important as a series goes on, and Denver certainly has an edge. Plus, at home role players tend to shoot better, and the Nuggets already have one of the best home courts in sports. — Bryan Mears


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.