The Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) and Denver Nuggets (54-28) will face off in Game 1 of their first round NBA playoff series this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Nuggets -6.5), with the over/under set at 231.5 total points. Denver is a -258 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Minnesota is +210 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 18.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction
- Timberwolves vs Nuggets pick: Timberwolves +6.5 (-105)
My Nuggets vs. Timberwolves best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds for Game 1
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 231.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 231.5 -110o / -110u | -258 |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA Playoffs Game 1 Preview
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
I like the matchup for the Nuggets a lot in this series.
Denver has added a significant amount of shooting since the Wolves’ upset them two seasons ago. Jamal Murray’s game and body are both much better.
Plus, the Wolves are slightly worse defensively now with Ayo Dosunmu instead of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Julius Randle instead of Karl-Anthony Towns.
However, I think the Game 1 spread is too heavy.
Denver won comfortably against the Wolves without Anthony Edwards earlier this season — and both teams were missing key players at times in the matchups.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Wolves won the latest meeting between these two teams — and in their Christmas Day matchup, Minnesota led deep into the game before Edwards got ejected and the Nuggets came surging back to steal a win.
There’s also the matter of the bench minutes. Chris Finch is willing to play both Rudy Gobert and Edwards whenever Nikola Jokic isn't on the floor.
The Nuggets’ counters are to stagger Jokic against them, which he won’t do — or to go small with Spencer Jones. If they play Jonas Valanciunas, he’ll get mercilessly targeted in pick-and-roll actions.
So instead, the Nuggets will likely go small, but that may lead to them geting beat on the glass badly to the point of having to bring Jokic back in the game early — and that will exhaust him and risk foul trouble.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Pick, Betting Analysis
Timberwolves +6.5
Denver’s offense is truly elite, the best in the league. Minnesota’s defense isn’t quite as good as it has been in other years.
However, the familiarity of these two teams and Denver’s tendency to suffer defensively opens the door.
I’ll take the points with the Wolves in Game 1.
Under 231.5
I wanted to be on the other side here, because I think Denver’s offense is significantly better than it was two years ago with their spacing.
The big difference is the Nuggets' defense. It’s worse this year in the aggregate, but that’s with all the injuries they’ve carried this season, and what I can only describe as a downshift in their defensive identity.
When Denver picks it up defensively… well, okay, they’re still not good — but they are not terrible; they’re average.
Turnovers tend to increase pace and scoring, but neither team really forces turnovers.
This is going to be a heavyweight slugfest the whole series. Both teams can score, but both teams will value possessions to slow the pace.
Naz Reid / Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
The Nuggets are bottom-three in corner three-point threes allowed per game. They give up those shots consistently as a result of their defensive coverage.
First, they play pick-and-roll coverage at the level often, resulting in the need for backside rotations that open up corner shooters.
Second, they play a healthy mix of zone, leaving Jokic to defend the corner in 3-2 zone sets.
Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels both shoot 40 percent or better on corner three-point attempts. They’ll get opportunities from the corners specifically, and overall in spot-up chances.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Best Bets
- Timberwolves +6.5 (-105)
- Under 231.5 (-110)
- Naz Reid Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-149)
- Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+147)
