Warriors vs. Clippers Game 6 Betting Preview: Can LA Force a Game 7?

Warriors vs. Clippers Game 6 Betting Preview: Can LA Force a Game 7? article feature image

Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry and Garrett Temple

Game 6 Betting Odds: Golden State Warriors to Los Angeles Clippers

  • Spread: Warriors -10
  • Over/Under: 232.5
  • Time: 10 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Series Score: Warriors lead 3-2

>> All odds as of Thursday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

The two-time defending champions somehow find themselves in one of the last remaining first-round series. They rebounded in Game 3 coming off a loss; will they do the same tonight? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

The longer a series goes, the more familiar opponents become with each other. Defensive adjustments are made and player fatigue becomes an issue, all of which contributes to lower-scoring outcomes. Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet the under in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series. –– John Ewing

After losing as a 15-point favorite in Game 5, the Warriors are now 9-15 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs under Steve Kerr. As a single-digit favorite or underdog, Golden State has gone 41-23 (64%) ATS. The Warriors opened at -9, but now sit at -10. — Ewing

The Warriors have already lost twice in this series against the Clippers as a double-digit favorite and are now 10-point road favorites in Game 6. Since 2005, only three teams have closed above a seven-point road favorite in Games 5, 6 or 7 of a playoff series.

Two of the three road favorites lost straight-up, including Kobe Bryant and Lakers in 2009 and the “Big 3” Celtics in 2008 (both ended up winning the NBA title).

  • 2017 Cavaliers (-9.5) at Celtics (Cavs won 135-102)
  • 2009 Lakers (-9) at Rockets (Rockets won 95-80)
  • 2008 Celtics (-8.5) at Hawks (Hawks won 103-100) — Abrams

Since 2005, nine teams prior to the Clippers in Game 5 have won a playoff game as a double-digit underdog. Only two of those teams played their next game in Game 4 of a playoff series or later; both failed to cover the spread on the road:

  • 2017 Cavaliers (-15) at Celtics (Cavs won 112-99)
  • 2006 Pistons (-5.5) at Cavaliers (Pistons won 84-82) –Abrams

The Warriors have lost consecutive home games straight-up in the playoffs to the Clippers. In the Steve Kerr era, this is just the second time the Warriors have dropped consecutive home games in the playoffs. The other was in the 2016 NBA Finals against the Cavaliers, a series Golden State would go on to lose in seven games. — Abrams

One of the Warriors’ key trademarks in all of their wins has been their passing and their ability specifically to find the open man and create assists. In their Games 2 and 5 losses to the Clippers, Golden State managed to accumulate at least 30 assists in both games.

Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 200-19 (91.3%) straight-up in the regular season and playoffs when recording at least 30 assists, including 18-2 (90%) SU in the playoffs. Both playoff losses in this spot have come in this series against the Clippers. — Abrams

Mears: How I’m Betting Game 6

Oh how fun it is to handicap the Golden State Warriors — a team that can turn it on and make basketball look too easy or one that can play with apathy and lose two games to an No. 8 seed in the first round.

I wrote extensively about the Warriors yesterday, so you can find a lot of my thoughts on their defense, specifically against the Clippers, there. A lot of it comes down to motivation it seems.

In the Clippers’ two wins, here’s how they shot against the Warriors at the rim:

  • Game 2: 18-of-19 (94.7%)
  • Game 5: 15-of-15 (100.0%)

In Wednesday’s win, the Clips grabbed 37.5% of their misses, which is in the 94th percentile of games this season. They absolutely dominated inside, getting penetration, hitting the boards and devastating the Warriors with the Lou Williams-Montrezl Harrell pick-and-roll combination.

Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LA Clippers forward Montrezl Harrell (5).

But take Game 3: The Warriors, coming off a loss, held the Clippers to a low 97.7 Offensive Rating. They held them to just 59.1% shooting at the rim and a low 24.5% offensive rebounding rate. No surprise, that game quickly turned into a blowout early in the fourth quarter.

So which Warriors team will we get in this one?

It’s easy to assume we’ll get the Game 3 version, as they’re again coming off a loss and now are losing valuable rest time with their potential second-round opponent, the Rockets, already through. That latter factor was also the case in Game 5, however, and the Warriors took an L at home.

This line opened at Warriors -9 on the road and has since moved to -10. I will say that the trend for the Warriors under Steve Kerr has been to over perform on the road and underperform at home.

Most of those poor home performances have admittedly come just ATS — not with an outright loss — but it’s nonetheless been an interesting trend:

  • Warriors in the playoffs ATS at home: 26-22
  • Warriors in the playoffs ATS on the road: 24-16

Again, it’s somewhat shocking to see the Dubs actually outright lose at Oracle to an No. 8 seed, but the place to bet the Dubs has consistently been on the road. I don’t think there’s a ton of value on this spread — and the Warriors continue to be a nightmare to handicap — but I would lean in their direction if anything.

But let’s all root for a Clippers victory so we can get a Game 7 in Oracle with the Dubs having to deal with the 3-1 narrative again. We all win then. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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