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Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: Bad Spot to Back Dallas (November 29)

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction: Bad Spot to Back Dallas (November 29) article feature image
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Jordan JohnsonNBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry

  • The Warriors and Mavericks meet Tuesday night in Dallas in a rematch of last season's Western Conference Finals.
  • Golden State is red-hot right now, while Dallas returns home from a disappointing road trip.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds

Warriors Odds -1.5
Mavericks Odds +1.5
Over/Under 226.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Dallas Mavericks host the Golden State Warriors in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals.

Both teams are in the midst of season-high streaks with the Warriors winning three straight and the Mavericks losing four in a row.

Will Dallas get their revenge on last season’s disappointing exit or do the Warriors own this matchup?

Let’s break it down.

Warriors Improving Defensively

The Warriors are absolutely rolling right now, riding a three-game winning streak in which they’ve won by an average of 17 points per game.

Since the Warriors earned their first road win of the season — which came at the hands of the Houston Rockets — they’ve played like a different team.

One part of this change has come from head coach Steve Kerr’s rotational changes, replacing young inexperienced players’ minutes with veterans like Anthony Lamb and Donte DiVincenzo.

The Warriors sent the inexperienced James Wiseman to the G-League in the middle of November — a few games before their Rockets victory — and the struggling Jonathan Kuminga has also seen his minutes decrease in that time.

The most noticeable difference since the change has been defensively, although their offense has been even better as well.

The Warriors’ Defensive Rating before Wiseman’s demotion was the fourth worst in the league (114.1) behind only the Pistons, Spurs and Rockets.

Since then, they’ve improved to just around league average at 111.5, and they’ve been even better in their three-game winning streak with a 109.4 Defensive Rating.

With their improved defense, the Warriors’ ability to exploit the Mavericks in transition should be a significant factor. They currently rank seventh in the league on Points Per Play in transition (129.3) while the Mavericks are third-worst with 136.0 allowed, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Mavericks Need to Limit 3s

The Mavericks are coming off a tough road trip that’s seen them drop their last four games in a row to Denver, Boston, Toronto and Milwaukee.

Unlike the Warriors, the Mavericks’ biggest issue of late has been their defense.

Before their losing streak, the Mavericks had the third best Adjusted Defensive Rating (108.5) according to Dunks and Threes, which takes into account strength of schedule.

In the last four games, Dallas has fallen to 11th in the league at 110.6.

The Mavericks’ defensive scheme relies heavily on limiting opponent threes and layups and they just so happened to run into teams that can exploit that weakness.

The Nuggets are eighth in Rim Rate (36.1%), the Celtics are second in 3-Point Rate (44.1%), and the Bucks are seventh in that metric (38.5%).

The Raptors don’t shoot many threes and are only 13th in Rim Rate (34.5%), but that was game in which Nick Nurse just outcoached Jason Kidd, double-teaming Luka Doncic and forcing him to find the open man, and to make the right decision, something he can sometimes struggle with under pressure.

The problem for the Mavericks will be preventing the rain of threes from the Splash Brothers. The Warriors are the number one team in 3-Point Rate (44.7%), but last in Rim Rate (26.4%).

Dallas’ best chance will be to outshoot the Warriors, but either way it should end up being a 3-point fest.

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Warriors-Mavericks Pick

I lean over, but this is a bad spot for Dallas, which comes home after a three-game road trip that included the Thanksgiving break. The Mavericks either stayed on the road in Toronto or flew home to Dallas and then to Toronto.

Either way, it’s a lot of traveling despite the fact that they find themselves in comfortable territory on home court.

Expect the Dubs to keep rolling and the Mavs to find their next win in Detroit on Thursday. I like the Warriors all the way down to -2.5

Pick: Warriors -2.5 or better

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