The Toronto Raptors (5-6) and Philadelphia 76ers (9-3) will clash in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pa. The game will broadcast live on Sportsnet.
The 76ers are 8.5-point favorites over the Raptors on the spread, with the over/under set at 222.5 total points. The Sixers are -350 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Raptors are listed as +280 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Raptors vs. 76ers predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, November 12.
Raptors vs 76ers Prediction
- Raptors vs 76ers pick: Raptors +8.5 (-110)
My Raptors vs. 76ers best bet is Toronto to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Download the Action Network app now for more NBA picks and analysis! If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Raptors vs 76ers Odds
- Raptors vs 76ers spread: 76ers -8.5 (-110), Raptors +8.5 (-110)
- Raptors vs 76ers over/under: 222.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Raptors vs 76ers moneyline: Raptors +280, 76ers -350
Raptors vs 76ers NBA Preview
Toronto Raptors Betting Preview
The Raptors will hope for a different outcome in the City of Brotherly Love after squandering a 22-point lead and losing 98-93 to the Celtics at Scotiabank Arena.
Sometimes, after such a disappointing home defeat, the best remedy is to hit the road and pick up the pieces as soon as possible.
In most cases, a quick turnaround can be a detriment. However, teams on short rest this season are 31-28 (52.5%) against the spread. That number improves to 17-12 (58.6%) after a loss.
One telling sign is that the Raptors are somewhat undervalued given their advanced metrics. They rank 13th in Net Rating (+2.7), and when you apply the Dunks and Threes adjustment for strength of schedule, the Raptors are slightly better at No. 12 in the league.
There's a level of honesty about the Raptors you have to admire. Since they know they're not a great three-point shooting team (ranked 27th at 32.4%), they make sure to limit opponents to just 34.7 attempts per game (ranked fourth).
In other words, by guarding the 3-point line, opponents are less likely to go on huge runs against the Raptors.
Another thing the Raptors' defense does really well is to stop transition points. Toronto leads the league with just 11.1 opponent fast-break points per game.
Thus, if you can defend in transition and on the break, you're not giving your opponent many chances to build a huge lead.
Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview
If we turn to the 76ers, their raw net rating is barely in the black at +0.8. However, when adjusted for strength of schedule, the 76ers' +0.0 mark is right at the league's midpoint.
It's worth noting that eight of Philadelphia's 12 outings qualified as clutch games, with the scoreline within five points and five minutes or less remaining in the fourth quarter or any overtime period.
Philadelphia went on to win each of those clutch games, a trend that's simply unsustainable. Therefore, it's no surprise that Team Rankings lists the 76ers as the second luckiest team thus far.
I still think this 76ers team has some growing pains to overcome as they try to get everyone on the same page. It's not often you have two high-profile players, Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, join an already established team with pieces Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid.
Brown averaged 28.7 points last season, but now the former NBA Finals MVP's scoring has dropped to 21.5 points per game while playing second fiddle to Maxey, who leads the team with 26.7 per game.
Call me a contrarian, but I refuse to believe that it's always sunny in Philadelphia. Given the 76ers' penchant for close games, laying double digits as a home favorite clearly carries some risk.
Raptors vs 76ers Pick, Betting Analysis
Building on our analysis of how teams have fared on short rest this season, I also looked at how double-digit dogs performed on short rest after blowing a 20-plus-point lead. Historically, teams in this spot are 7-3 against the spread.
There's no question the market tends to overadjust when teams are on a back-to-back, and this is one of those instances.
The Raptors' underlying numbers point to a team that's underperforming relative to their current metrics.
With the 76ers ranking 26th in 3-point attempts (34.2) and 22nd in 3-point percentage (33.7%), the Raptors will focus on transition defense, an area in which the 76ers rank fourth (17.1 per game).
The good news is this is a department the Raptors already excel in.
Philadelphia originally opened as a 10-point favorite in this game, and that number is already down to -8.5.
With my model projecting this line should be closer to -6, there's still enough of an edge to back the visitors at the current number.
Pick: Raptors +8.5 (-110)
