We have an excellent slate of NBA games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions for Thursday, November 12.
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NBA Predictions for Thursday, November 12
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Hornets vs. Suns
The Hornets started the year horrifically on the offensive end, but we finally saw them break the seal and get their shots to fall against the Cavaliers.
The process has been there for Charlotte all season; they are taking the exact shots they want to take, they just simply haven’t been able to knock them down.
The Hornets are dealing with some key injuries, but they still have plenty of capable shooters on the floor like Naz Reid, Brandon Miller, and Coby White. Charlotte simply isn't as bad offensively as their early metrics suggest.
On the other side of the floor, the Suns started the year as a tire fire defensively, getting obliterated on a nightly basis. However, they have turned a corner recently, going on a nice run against the Clippers where they moved the ball beautifully and got huge contributions from their bench.
The Suns' defense has climbed to 22nd in schedule-adjusted metrics, though part of that is inflated by getting to play the Trail Blazers twice. Even with Phoenix playing better basketball, they are still going to surrender the perimeter looks that Charlotte actively hunts.
I'm using some numbers from last year to help project this total, but obviously the biggest problem with doing that is the removal of LaMelo Ball from the equation.
If you adjust for LaMelo's departure in a normal environment, you have to dock the Hornets' average total projection by roughly three to six points. However, even if I apply that maximum six-point penalty and regularize this matchup using last year's baseline, my projection still lands at 214, sitting cleanly above the current market number.
If I strictly use the in-season numbers, which accounts for Phoenix's improved defensive rating, my model makes the total 217. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in overall pace, which keeps the total suppressed, but the volume of three-point attempts should be there to carry this over the number.
Pick: Over 213.5 (-110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Hornets vs Suns betting preview!
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Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
While the Mavericks boast a respectable record of 7-4 straight up and against the spread, I am finding it difficult to fully buy into their defensive ceiling.
The Mavs' schedule-adjusted defensive metrics look elite on paper—sitting 12th overall against the 11th-hardest slate of opposing offenses—but a large portion of that rating is being subsidized by favorable variance with opponents simply missing wide-open three-pointers.
I do not love how Dallas matches up on the interior against a rested Minnesota frontcourt. Even with Rudy Gobert currently struggling to finish easy layups, his sheer size presents a large hurdle for the Mavericks to overcome.
On the flip side, the Timberwolves are playing lights-out basketball right now. They are utilizing a large amount of space at the offensive end, setting screens near half-court just to open up driving lanes and free up shooters in the middle of the floor, which has allowed guys like Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga to shoot the ball very well.
I am not trying to catch a falling knife or bank on immediate regression here; I am fully buying into Minnesota's current form.
Dallas had a signature win against Houston and beat an injury-depleted OKC squad, but my read on the Mavericks is that they are a team to back as favorites against bad teams, not on the road against a elite squads.
Minnesota holds a huge rest advantage coming off three-plus days of rest, and they are fully healthy outside of Anthony Edwards.
From a strict model perspective, I have this game priced at Timberwolves -7.1. Even if you heavily weigh the in-season numbers—which still accounts for Dallas's strong start—the math points to Minnesota -5.3.
I will back the confident, rested home team to handle business here.
Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Mavericks vs Timberwolves betting preview!
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Raptors vs. 76ers
This is only a one-star play for me because Toronto is operating on the second night of a back-to-back—their third game in four nights on the road—which introduces the possibility that they rest RJ Barrett or Immanuel Quickley.
If the Raptors sit their primary creators, Allen Graves will see a spike in usage and volume by default, which could easily sink this under. However, if the Raptors' rotation stays relatively intact, this matchup is a nightmare for his specific shot profile.
Graves has only recorded a made three-pointer in four of his 10 games this season, hitting exactly one in each of those contests. More importantly, he is heavily reliant on the corners for his perimeter offense. He averages 1.4 corner three-point attempts per game compared to just 0.6 above the break, and he is shooting a miserable 27 percent on those corner looks.
Tonight, he faces a 76ers defense under Nick Nurse that is excellent at limiting corner threes because of their strict drop coverage coverage principles. With Joel Embiid dropping in the pick-and-roll, the rest of the Sixers defenders flatten out along the baseline, taking away the corners while conceding looks above the break.
Philadelphia allows just 7.8 corner three-point attempts per game—one of the lowest marks in the league.
Graves is not the type of on-ball creator who is going to run a pick-and-roll and pull up from the top of the key. He relies on catch-and-shoot opportunities from the corner, and against a pissed-off Sixers team coming off a tough loss to the Celtics, those looks simply will not be available.
Give me the under on a young, inefficient shooter going up against a defense designed to erase his favorite spots on the floor.
Pick: Allen Graves Under 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-115)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Raptors vs 76ers betting preview!
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