The Dallas Mavericks (7-4) and Minnesota Timberwolves (8-3) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Timberwolves are 5.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread, with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. The Timberwolves are -210 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Mavericks are listed as +176 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, November 12.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction
- Mavericks vs Timberwolves pick: Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
My Mavericks vs. Timberwolves best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Mavericks vs Timberwolves Odds
- Mavericks vs Timberwolves spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-110), Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
- Mavericks vs Timberwolves over/under: 226.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mavericks vs Timberwolves moneyline: Mavericks +176, Timberwolves -210
Mavericks vs Timberwolves NBA Preview
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks are sitting at 7-4 straight up and against the spread, but I am still trying to figure out exactly what their ceiling is.
The Mavericks' defensive metrics actually stand out in a positive way right now. Their defensive strength of schedule is 11th, and their schedule-adjusted defensive rating ranks 12th, which is a genuinely good mark.
They Mavs have picked up some impressive results, including beating the Heat straight up as underdogs and securing a signature win over the Rockets that indicates they are a legitimately good team.
However, my specific read on Dallas is that I want to back them as a favorite against bad teams or as a small underdog against sub-elite tiers.
I do not love this interior matchup for them tonight. Even with Rudy Gobert struggling to make layups right now, his size and presence on the inside are just a lot for the Mavericks to deal with.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing lights-out basketball.
While I have voiced some concerns about their long-term trajectory—I do not think they will maintain the level they have shown over their first 11 games for the entire season—they are currently shooting efficiently and playing with an immense amount of confidence.
Offensively, they are utilizing so much space, setting screens all the way out at half-court just to get guys free in the middle of the floor. Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga are benefiting from this spacing and shooting incredibly well.
The Timberwolves are also entering this matchup with a big rest advantage, coming off three-plus days of pure rest.
Outside of missing Anthony Edwards, this roster is completely healthy and firing on all cylinders.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Pick, Betting Analysis
I am laying the 5.5 points with the Timberwolves. I actually wonder if this is the worst of the number and if Dallas will take some steam to push this down to 4.5, but I am comfortable backing Minnesota inside of two possessions.
This is not a spot where I am trying to catch a falling knife and bank on immediate regression; the Wolves are simply playing too well right now.
From a pure model perspective, I make this game Minnesota -7.1. If you look at how these teams have been priced by the market, it sits around 5.7, and even heavily weighing the in-season numbers brings it to 5.3.
With the rest advantage and the way they are stretching the floor, I will gladly lay the points with Minnesota here.
Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Betting Trends
