The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Thursday, November 12.
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NBA Best Bets for Thursday, November 12
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pistons vs. Wizards
While Washington currently boasts the best defensive three-point percentage in the NBA, I am suspicious of those early-season numbers. We are only 10 games into the year, and that metric feels heavily reliant on sheer luck rather than an elite perimeter defensive scheme.
Regardless of what the Wizards' defensive numbers suggest, Duncan Robinson's recent shooting volume makes this a smash play. He is averaging over 13 three-point attempts per 100 possessions, has already launched 92 threes this season, and is burying them at an elite 45.7 percent clip.
This isn't a small-sample anomaly either; Robinson shot 45 percent for an entire season back in 2019-20 and is a career 40-percent shooter from deep. He has cleared this 3.5 line in six of his 10 games this season and in three of his last four, routinely seeing eight, nine, 10, or even 11 attempts per night.
Robinson averages seven above-the-break three-point attempts per game alone, which is the most on the Pistons roster.
Conveniently, the Wizards surrender the seventh-most above-the-break threes per game in the league, while allowing opponents to shoot just 30 percent on those looks — but that percentage will inevitably improve when facing a shooter of Robinson's caliber.
To sweeten the pot, the Wizards are stepping into a brutal schedule spot, playing their fifth game in eight days on the back end of a back-to-back.
With Anthony Davis expected to rest for Washington, the Wizards will be forced to send lots of help defense to the interior to contend with Detroit's physicality.
When the Wizards' defense collapses into the paint, Robinson should have miles of space on the perimeter to catch and shoot off Cade Cunningham’s playmaking.
Pick: Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (-112)
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Raptors vs. 76ers
By Matt Moore
This is only a one-star play for me because Toronto is operating on the second night of a back-to-back—their third game in four nights on the road—which introduces the possibility that they rest RJ Barrett or Immanuel Quickley.
If they sit their primary creators, Allen Graves will see a massive spike in usage and volume by default, which could easily sink this under. However, if the Raptors' rotation stays relatively intact, this matchup is a nightmare for his specific shot profile.
Graves has only recorded a made three-pointer in four of his 10 games this season, hitting exactly one in each of those contests. More importantly, he is heavily reliant on the corners for his perimeter offense. He averages 1.4 corner three-point attempts per game compared to just 0.6 above the break, and he is shooting a miserable 27 percent on those corner looks.
Tonight, he faces a 76ers defense under Nick Nurse that is excellent at limiting corner threes because of their strict drop coverage coverage principles. With Joel Embiid dropping in the pick-and-roll, the rest of the Sixers defenders flatten out along the baseline, taking away the corners while conceding looks above the break.
Philadelphia allows just 7.8 corner three-point attempts per game—one of the lowest marks in the league.
Graves is not the type of on-ball creator who is going to run a pick-and-roll and pull up from the top of the key. He relies on catch-and-shoot opportunities from the corner, and against a pissed-off Sixers team coming off a tough loss to the Celtics, those looks simply will not be available.
Give me the under on a young, inefficient shooter going up against a defense designed to erase his favorite spots on the floor.
Pick: Allen Graves Under 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-115)
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Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
Timberwolves -5.5
By Matt Moore
While the Mavericks boast a respectable record of 7-4 straight up and against the spread, I am finding it difficult to fully buy into their defensive ceiling.
The Mavs' schedule-adjusted defensive metrics look elite on paper—sitting 12th overall against the 11th-hardest slate of opposing offenses—but a large portion of that rating is being subsidized by favorable variance with opponents simply missing wide-open three-pointers.
I do not love how Dallas matches up on the interior against a rested Minnesota frontcourt. Even with Rudy Gobert currently struggling to finish easy layups, his sheer size presents a large hurdle for the Mavericks to overcome.
On the flip side, the Timberwolves are playing lights-out basketball right now. They are utilizing a large amount of offensive space, setting screens near half-court just to open up driving lanes and free up shooters in the middle of the floor, which has allowed guys like Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga to shoot the ball very well.
I am not trying to catch a falling knife or bank on immediate regression here; I am fully buying into Minnesota's current form.
Dallas had a signature win against Houston and beat an injury-depleted OKC squad, but my read on the Mavericks is that they are a team to back as favorites against bad teams, not on the road against a elite squads.
Minnesota holds a huge rest advantage coming off three-plus days of rest, and they are fully healthy outside of Anthony Edwards.
From a strict model perspective, I have this game priced at Timberwolves -7.1. Even if you heavily weigh the in-season numbers—which still accounts for Dallas's strong start—the math points to Minnesota -5.3.
I will back the confident, rested home team to handle business here.
Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
LaMelo Ball Over 27.5 Points & Assists
Even though LaMelo Ball is seeing slightly reduced run compared to a traditional star—playing similar minutes to last year where he isn't even cracking the 30-minute threshold every night—he is finding consistent ways to remain productive on the floor.
While the Mavericks' defense looks stout on paper, they are benefiting from opponent three-point shooting luck, and that variance is eventually going to level out.
Minnesota has established themselves as a genuinely good shooting team, ranking 13th in the league in three-point attempts per 100 possessions and converting those looks at a 37 percent clip. They also play at a top-10 pace, and that tempo is exactly what LaMelo will look to exploit in this specific matchup.
Ball has comfortably cleared this 27.5 line in three of his last four games. The lone under came against a tremendous Rockets defense that specifically schemed to take the ball out of his hands, frustrating his drives and forcing him into a 6-of-11 shooting night where he still managed to hit four of his seven looks from deep.
Unless he is facing a truly elite defensive scheme, Ball is going to get his production. I still do not trust the consistency of this Dallas defense, and I doubt they finish the year as a top-10 unit or maintain this mirage of being an elite three-point defense.
In a pace-up game environment, LaMelo should be able to spray the ball around the perimeter, rack up seven or eight easy assists when his shooters knock down open looks, and generate enough of his own offense to cash this ticket.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 27.5 Points & Assists (-110)
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Hornets vs. Suns
Over 213.5
By Matt Moore
The Hornets started the year horrifically on the offensive end, but we finally saw them break the seal and get their shots to fall against the Cavaliers.
The process has been there for Charlotte all season; they are taking the exact shots they want to take, they just simply haven’t been able to knock them down.
The Hornets are dealing with some key injuries, but they still have plenty of capable shooters on the floor like Naz Reid, Brandon Miller, and Coby White. Charlotte simply isn't as bad offensively as their early metrics suggest.
On the other side of the floor, the Suns started the year as a tire fire defensively, getting obliterated on a nightly basis. However, they have turned a corner recently, going on a nice run against the Clippers where they moved the ball beautifully and got huge contributions from their bench.
The Suns' defense has climbed to 22nd in schedule-adjusted metrics, though part of that is inflated by getting to play the Trail Blazers twice.
Even with Phoenix playing better basketball, they are still going to surrender the perimeter looks that Charlotte actively hunts.
I'm using some numbers from last year to help project this total, but obviously the biggest problem with doing that is the removal of LaMelo Ball from the equation.
If you adjust for LaMelo's departure in a normal environment, you have to dock the Hornets' average total by roughly three to six points. However, even if I apply that maximum six-point penalty and regularize this matchup using last year's baseline, my projection still lands at 214, sitting cleanly above the current market number.
If I strictly use the in-season numbers, which accounts for Phoenix's improved defensive rating, my model makes the total 217. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in overall pace, which keeps the total suppressed, but the volume of three-point attempts should be there to carry this over the number.
Pick: Over 213.5 (-110)
Grayson Allen Over 17.5 Points
If you haven't been paying close attention, Grayson Allen has quietly been killing it this season, shooting a blistering 47 percent from three-point range on 7.5 attempts per game.
While you could certainly isolate his three-point prop at 3.5, I strongly prefer the points market here because of his increased aggression in getting to the rim and drawing fouls.
Allen is currently averaging 3.5 free-throw attempts per game—the highest mark of his career—and he is converting them at an elite 92 percent clip. That ability to manufacture points at the charity stripe gives him a much safer scoring floor, which has already resulted in multiple 20-point outbursts this season.
The Hornets' entire offensive philosophy under Charles Lee is predicated on spacing the floor and generating high-volume three-point shots, specifically from the corners and above the break. They are currently launching a league-leading 47 threes per game. Even though they are only connecting on 31 percent of them, the sheer volume dictates more scoring opportunities.
Charlotte is stepping into this matchup shorthanded; they are already missing Kon Knueppel, and both Brandon Miller and Dennis Schröder have been officially declared out.
Without their primary offensive creators available, Allen is going to be forced to dive deeper into his bag and shoulder a heavier offensive load — and he draws a highly favorable matchup against a Suns defense that has taken a noticeable step back recently, consistently allowing open perimeter looks.
Factor in the revenge narrative of Allen playing against the team that traded him, and I think he may be primed for a big game tonight.
Pick: Grayson Allen Over 17.5 Points (-118)
Coby White Over 17.5 Points & Assists
By Joe Dellera
I'm looking at Coby White tonight as he continues to ramp up his conditioning following his return from injury. When monitoring his usage over the last few contests, the gradual increase in his workload is exactly what we want to see for a prop like this.
Aside from an understandable dip during an uncompetitive blowout against the Celtics, White has seen a slight uptick in his minutes in every single game. He just logged 20 minutes his last time out against the Cavaliers, and based on this steady progression, I fully expect him to push into the 22-to-24-minute range tonight.
While his shots have been falling a little short recently, I am not overly concerned because it certainly hasn't been for a lack of volume. The attempts are there, and the efficiency should naturally bounce back in this specific matchup.
White should see plenty of high-quality chances today against a notably weak Suns defense that has struggled to string together consistent stops.
When you dive into his distribution numbers, White’s top assist zone comes from generating three-point opportunities for his teammates — and defending the perimeter is exactly where this Phoenix defense is weakest.
When you combine his expanding workload, his consistent shot volume despite the recent misses, and an exploitable defensive matchup tailored to both his scoring and passing strengths, this line is simply too low.
I'll back White to clear this combined points and assists prop tonight as his rotation role continues to normalize.
Pick: Coby White Over 17.5 Points & Assists (-116)
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