VCU vs. UNC Odds & Betting Predictions - March 19, 2026

Boomer’s Book

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Projecting 1.1

#Tailing @nick_giffen

Projecting 8.5 ... VCU doesnt allow 3s and doesnt foul. Dixon coming off a run of teams that allows a lot of 3s and making 67% L3 but was 22.7% L5 before that

Merry Christmas!! 🎄🏀 pick logic here: https://open.substack.com/pub/wheatonbrando/p/thursday-evening-slate-march-madness?r=k19t&utm_medium=ios

Heeeeeeels

I don’t trust UNC’s guards at all. No Wilson. Give me VCU.

This VCU team is very good and remains underrated even after winning the A-10 Tournament. I think some people may be hesitant to trust this team after being a trendy underdog last March Madness and then getting exposed by BYU in the first round. While I understand that fear, I am here to tell you that not only was that BYU team way better than this UNC team, but this VCU team is also completely retooled. I love this roster and don’t think this is another scenario like we saw last season. You may see the big brand of North Carolina and immediately think they are the more talented team. However, that’s just not true, especially since losing Caleb Wilson to injury. According to BRP, VCU has the more talented and deeper roster. Henri Veesaar will be the best player on the floor, but after him there’s a major drop off in talent for UNC. I simply don’t like this North Carolina team without Wilson running the offense. Since Caleb Wilson went down, UNC’s offensive rebounding numbers are down 3.8% and their turnover percentage is up 1.2%. These may seem like small differences, but basketball games are won on thin margins, especially in March. Not to mention, UNC continues to have major defensive issues. They were dead last in the ACC in defending the three ball and rank 344th in the country in forcing turnovers. They don’t block shots and they don’t create havoc for other teams. VCU is a very solid ball handling team and won’t be overmatched as the underdog. Oftentimes we see mid majors get overwhelmed by defensive pressure, but UNC doesn’t fit that mold. I simply think VCU is the better team, and they’ve been playing like it. Since February 1st, VCU ranks 28th in the country compared to UNC at 33rd. This is over a month and a half sample size. VCU is also getting hot at the right time, winning six straight and 16 of their last 17 games. Meanwhile, UNC is coming in cold, losing back to back games and four of their last nine. UNC is also one of the worst road teams in the country. They rank second to last nationally in Hasla Metrics away from home stat. UNC was a perfect 18-0 at home, but a brutal 4-6 away from Chapel Hill this season. Meanwhile, VCU is 150 spots better away from home and also ranks top 25 in consistency. UNC is also one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, ranking 316th in free throw percentage. They often find themselves unable to extend leads or put teams away. I’ll gladly take the team that does all the little things better. Give me VCU to cover.

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