College Basketball Odds, Pick for BYU vs Kansas State

The Big 12 is the strongest and deepest conference in men's college basketball.

For the teams trying to trudge through the conference schedule, there are a few different outcomes.

• The teams at the top have proven themselves among the best teams in the country, hoping to be more tested than tired come March.
• The teams in the middle of the pack are fighting for their lives, trying to hold serve at home and steal whatever games they can on the road.
• The teams at the bottom are just grasping for air. Any win is a good one when your schedule constantly features top-50 teams.

Kansas State falls into that third category, having lost seven of its last eight games after a 4-1 conference start. Don't get it twisted — the Wildcats are still a solid team. K-State's last four losses came by a combined 18 points, with the lone win in the last month coming over highly-ranked in-state rival Kansas.

The schedule throws another tough test at the Wildcats on Saturday, with the BYU Cougars in town. Can the Wildcats protect home court in this Saturday duel?

Mark Pope has the Cougars playing disciplined basketball on the offensive end, knowing exactly how to maximize this team's firepower. BYU takes 3s at the third-highest rate in the country, and only North Florida scores a higher percentage of its points from deep.

That strategy plays perfectly for a team with a ton of shooting talent. When an opponent does close out on a BYU shooter, the Cougars are looking to slash to create one of two chances: another open 3-pointer or a gimme at the basket.

BYU shoots the third-lowest rate of shots at the rim but makes the highest percentage of rim looks in the country. If BYU attacks the paint, it's looking for a sure thing or simply drawing attention for the high-value kick-out to a waiting shooter.

It's a sound strategy — until the 3s stop dropping. BYU has gone 9-0 when shooting 38% or better from 3-point land in a game but winless in five games shooting under 32%.

That reliance on the deep ball and risk of shooting luck continues on the other end of the floor for the Cougars. Brigham Young allows the fifth-lowest rim rate in the nation, forcing jump shots. That's worked so far, with BYU's opponents combining to hit just 30.4% from outside this season.

The Cougars a whopping 14-0 in the games where their opponents sank under 30% of their shots from beyond the arc.

I'd love to tell you there's more to it than this, but this is exactly how Pope wants his team to be. With some of the best pure shooters in the country, he's ready to bet on his guys to outshoot opponents over a 40-minute sample size.

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When Kansas State started conference play 4-1, Jerome Tang was once again attracting attention in National Coach of the Year conversations. Since mid-January, however, the season has swung against Tang and his Wildcats.

Not only has K-State lost seven of its last eight games, but a lot of the Wildcats' prior performances look worse than they once did. Losses to Miami and USC certainly look worse than they did at the time, with a win over Villanova losing shine as the season wears on.

Toss in Kansas State's incredible overtime luck — currently 6-0 on the season in an extra period, including three straight games at one point — and this team's standing near the bottom of the Big 12 makes a lot more sense.

If overtime wins over Oral Roberts and North Alabama were losses, this season looks so much different. The same is true of Kansas State's best wins, overtime victories over Kansas and Baylor.

This team's issues are almost exclusively on the offensive end of the floor. Tang can scheme a defense as good as any coach in the country, and he's got a group of dogs that execute his vision. Offensively, however, the attack is sloppy.

Kansas State ranks last in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, largely due to turnover issues. The Cats rank 350th in the country in turnover rate and last in the conference. Big 12 defenses are tough, but there's just no way to overcome a turnover on 22% of possessions.

Creighton transfer Arthur Kaluma was expected to be the centerpiece of the K-State offense, but he hasn't found life without the Bluejays' shooters around him quite as easy.

Based on the BYU write-up above, this breakdown should be simple. The Cougars' shooting luck feels very predictive of the outcome here.

That's a little easier to say than forecasting a funky team like Kansas State. The Wildcats are shooting 28% from deep in five games in February, 21% in their last three games and just 17.6% (6-of-34!) in their last two outings.

That sounds due for regression, right? Well, maybe not, considering this Kansas State team simply can't shoot.

Sure, any Division I roster is better than 17.6% over a larger sample, but on the season, the Wildcats rank 322nd nationally in 3-point percentage and third-worst in the Big 12.

Conversely, Kansas State's overtime luck may be negated by its mix of defensive intensity and opponents' shooting luck, having seen just 28% from deep in Big 12 play. Plus, BYU itself hasn't been at its hottest and might see some positive regression after hitting just 31.7% over its last five outings.

It feels safest to think both teams ride a shooting wave and a high-scoring BYU team makes K-State play at its pace. Eight of BYU's last 10 games cleared this over, averaging more than 156 points.

Pick: Over 147.5

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