Cincinnati vs Indiana State Pick & Prediction for NIT

While we wait for the NCAA Tournament to resume on Thursday, we have some college hoops to tide us over, as the NIT quarterfinals begin on Tuesday.

In the NIT, the Bearcats won games over San Francisco and Bradley sans two starters — Day Day Thomas and Viktor Lahkin. The two starters will remain out against Indiana State.

Defense is the Bearcats' calling card, as they rank 16th nationally in KenPom's Defensive Efficiency.

Cincinnati keeps 2-point field goals at a minimum, as opponents shoot just 47% from inside the arc (27th nationally). The Bearcats have no shortage of perimeter length and athleticism to make driving into the lane a trying task.

Cincy isn't a good perimeter shooting team, connecting on just 32.6% of its shots from 3. The Bearcats have found two explosive scoring weapons in Dan Skillings Jr. and Jizzle James, but neither shoots well.

That's where Simas Lukosius steps in. He hit the game-winner charging off a screen against San Francisco and shoots 38% from downtown for the year.

Meanwhile, Skillings is an explosive driver, posting 17.6 points in the past five games.

Also, James scored 25 points in a starting role without Thomas.

One advantage for the Bearcats is in the height department. They rank 37th in average height, per KenPom, compared to Indiana State's 273rd. Four of Wes Miller's five starters stand 6-foot-5 or taller, with James being the shortest at 6-foot-2.

Some teams that narrowly miss the NCAA Tournament show up to the NIT uninspired and disinterested in playing extra basketball.

On the other hand, Indiana State has put together two offensive masterpieces in wins over SMU and Minnesota. It didn't let the disappointment of missing the NCAA Tournament alter its mentality.

The Sycamores posted an absurd 1.36 PPP against SMU and a fairly tame 1.10 PPP against Minnesota. In the win over SMU, Indiana State shot 65% from 2-point range and an even more impressive 73% from inside the arc against the Gophers.

That's nothing new for head coach Josh Schertz, whose offense boasts the best 2-point field goal percentage in college hoops and the 12th-best 3-point shooting percentage.

While it's nothing new, the NIT is trying out new rules with a wider lane than regular college basketball games. The wider lane makes the Sycamores' five-out offense more explosive, creating deeper driving lanes for the guards.

Stopping the elite passing in a five-out offense is already tough, but making the floor wider? That makes it 10x more difficult.

Robbie Avila is Indiana State's best player, but he hasn't shot the ball well in the NIT (5-of-20 from the field, 1-of-10 from downtown). Avila's struggles aren't that noticeable, since he's tossed 14 assists to only three turnovers in the two wins.

Indiana State's offense is still exploding for absurd performances, while Avila is in the midst of his worst shooting stretch all year. If Avila turns it around, it's a huge difference-maker for Indiana State.

Simply put, Cincinnati can't score with Indiana State.

It needs to slow down one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and not many teams have succeeded in that mission.

Give me the Sycamores.

Pick: Indiana State -2.5 (Play to -3.5)