College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday

After two days of slow college basketball slates, we have a loaded Saturday of hoops, including Wisconsin vs. Arizona.

Dive in below for college basketball best bets, including our staff's four picks for Saturday, December 9.

College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By D.J. James

The Illinois Fighting Illini come into their game against the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday ranked 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Meanwhile, Tennessee ranks second.

That’s the story of the game, despite Illinois ranking 69th in Adjusted Tempo and the Volunteers ranking 83rd.

For one, Tennessee averages 18.4 seconds per possession on defense, which should slow the Illini’s pace a bit.

Tennessee also doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 24th in offensive turnover percentage, while Illinois ranks 337th defensively. On the other side, Illinois ranks 211th in offensive turnover rate, which is one of the major variables that led to its loss to Marquette at home. However, Tennessee ranks only 119th in defensive turnover rate.

If Tennessee turns the ball over, though, it ranks 325th in points per possession in transition, per ShotQuality. Essentially, the Vols won’t find a way to capitalize on turnovers from the Illini.

Illinois also rarely gets to the free-throw line. Despite Terrence Shannon Jr.’s tendency to attack the rim, most players on the Illini don’t. They rank 301st in free-throw attempt rate offensively while shooting a putrid 62.5% as a team.

Also of note, the Vols rank 205th in offensive free-throw attempt rate, while the Illini barely foul (26th defensively).

Finally, neither team is consistent from deep. Tennessee ranks 11th in Open-3 Rate, while Illinois comes in at 59th. Illinois also sits second in Defensive Rim-and-3 Rate, as Tennessee ranks 125th.

Still, the under should be in play with elite defense and questionable offense. Take it to 142.

Pick: Under 142

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By Tanner McGrath

LSU has played two games since Nov. 28, losing to Syracuse on that Tuesday and beating Southeastern Louisiana on Dec. 1.

Matt McMahon and Co. haven’t played in eight days, spending that time game-planning and resting for this important home opportunity against Kansas State.

During that same Nov. 28-to-now timeframe, Kansas State has played three consecutive overtime games and somehow swept them, making Jerome Tang 9-0 in overtime periods as head coach of the Wildcats.

All three wins came at home. Two came against lowly mid-major competition in Oral Roberts and North Alabama. One came against a Villanova squad that lost Justin Moore to injury in the first half. And two needed a miracle late-game step-back 3 by Tylor Perry to extend or finish the game.

I’m guessing the Wildcats are exhausted and running on fumes. They’re now getting ready to leave Manhattan for the first time in 19 days for a trip to the Bayou, where the Tigers boast a top-30 home-court advantage, and now, an incomprehensibly large rest advantage.

Not only are the Wildcats tired, but they’re overvalued.

I just don’t think Kansas State has looked that good. Five of its seven wins have come against sub-130 KenPom teams. In four games against KenPom top-50 teams, the Wildcats lost by 13 to USC and eight to Miami, then needed miracle overtime victories to down Providence and Villanova.

Four of Kansas State’s seven wins have come in overtime. That’s absurd, and the Cats are due for close-game regression.

LSU has a terrible loss on its resume at home against Nicholls, but it’s also posted KenPom top-80 wins over North Texas and Wake Forest, while only losing to KenPom No. 53 Dayton by three.

People are down on LSU, but I’d argue the Tigers look better than Kansas State.

Hey, I bet we’d all be looking at Tang’s team in a different light if a few balls bounced the other way in the past two weeks, resulting in two KenPom sub-150 losses.

The ShotQualityBets’ model seems to agree, pegging LSU as a seven-point home favorite over Kansas State on Saturday.

From an on-court matchup perspective, the Tigers have two key advantages.

First, the Tigers pressure ball-handlers and force turnovers, turning defense into transition offense. Jordan Wright, Mike Williams III and Tyrell Ward are averaging a combined 5.5 steals per game, and the Tigers are scoring over 10 transition points per game.

Conversely, the Wildcats rank 262nd nationally in offensive turnover rate, 359th in PPP against press coverage and 223rd in transition PPP allowed. They’re throwing the ball away and not getting back on defense against run-outs.

And now they’re tired, and likely to be sloppier with the ball and slower running back down the court.

It’s a nightmare matchup for KSU, and LSU should capitalize.

Secondly, the Tigers have a significant size advantage.

Much of the Wildcats’ scoring comes on the wing from Cam Carter and Arthur Kaluma (combined 33 points per game). However, the Tigers stand 6-foot-6, 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-10 on the wing, and the length will play a huge role in defending.

Moreover, LSU’s point guard — Williams — stands at 6-foot-3 with a four-inch height advantage over his matchup, Perry. LSU center Will Baker stands 7-foot with a four-inch advantage over his matchup, KSU’s David N’Guessan.

The Tigers have used their length — they’re 13th nationally in average height — to spearhead a top-10 mark in 2-point shooting allowed (41.1%) and a top-three mark in paint points per game allowed (21).

That’ll make life hard on the Wildcats, especially considering they’ll be trying to play up in size — they rank 257th in average height — with tired legs.

They could shoot over the top, but I expect plenty of 3s to fall short with exhausted arms.

Ultimately, Kansas State is wildly overvalued in the markets and due for a close loss. I expect that loss to come in a hostile environment against a much larger, far better-rested LSU team begging for another big non-conference victory.

I love the situational spot for LSU, and I hope the Tigers generate plenty of turnovers and transition buckets in a decisive victory.

Pick: LSU ML (Play to -130 or -2)

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By Kevin Rogers

Auburn shot 3-of-28 from 3-point range in a 69-64 loss at Appalachian State this past Sunday.

The Tigers head to State Farm Arena in Atlanta looking to rebound against Indiana, which is coming off a pair of impressive wins over Maryland and Michigan to start Big Ten play.

This isn’t exactly a letdown spot for the Hoosiers, but this should be a nice motivational situation for Bruce Pearl’s club.

Auburn is ice-cold from downtown, hitting only five of its previous 43 attempts from long distance in its last two games. However, Indiana ranks 153rd nationally in defensive 3-point percentage, compared to Appalachian State at 44th.

Indiana edged Michigan, 78-75, in Ann Arbor, capped off by erasing a six-point deficit with nine minutes left in regulation.

The Hoosiers don’t attempt many 3-pointers — 18 in the last two games — while converting on 25.8% of tries from downtown, which is bottom-20 in the nation.

All of Auburn’s wins have come by 15 points or more this season, granted some of those teams are not of Indiana’s caliber.

However, the Tigers haven't squeezed by in any victory, so let’s back Auburn, even with this number at a neutral site.

Pick: Auburn -6 (Play to -7.5)

By Charlie DiSturco

Colorado State has taken college basketball by storm in the opening month. But we have a perfect buy-low, sell-high opportunity in Fort Collins on Saturday, as Saint Mary’s enters as a 5.5-point underdog.

Colorado State has yet to lose in nine games, using its offensive firepower behind star point guard Isaiah Stevens to light up the scoreboard. The Rams have scored under 80 points just one time — a 69-48 win over Creighton — and have the second-best effective field-goal percentage in the country.

But their defense leaves a lot to be desired.

The Rams sit outside the top 150 in 2-point defense and lack size around the rim. Their tallest player is 6-foot-8 Patrick Cartier — a clear issue against a Gaels team that boasts five players in their nine-man rotation at 6-foot-7 or taller.

Gaels center Mitchell Saxen should find plenty of success both on the offensive glass and as the rim protector for Saint Mary’s. He ranks seventh in the country in offensive rebounding rate, an area in which Colorado State also struggles.

The Gaels are also among the many teams due for positive regression. Despite ranking 40th in minutes continuity, the offense is 268th in eFG%, highlighted by a 28.6% clip from the perimeter.

When it comes to a PPP basis, ShotQuality actually ranks Saint Mary’s as 50th in Catch-and-Shoot 3s and just outside the top 100 off the dribble. Yet, it’s 307th as a squad.

Unless Colorado State goes nuclear from the perimeter behind Stevens, I find it hard to believe the Rams can take down the Gaels in dominant fashion.

There are just too many negative factors working against the Rams here.

I expect Saint Mary’s to control the glass and create plenty of second-chance opportunities, all while taking advantage of its size discrepancy on the road Saturday.

Back the Gaels at +5.5 and down to +4.

Pick: Saint Mary's +5.5 (Play to +4)