Indiana vs Illinois Odds, Pick: Injury to Decide Handicap

The Illinois Fighting Illini dropped a tough game in overtime at Northwestern on Wednesday. That type of loss usually can signal a favorable outcome in the next spot.

Up next on Illinois' schedule is a home bout against the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is not the same as the tournament team of the last couple of years. Illinois should have a size edge at almost every position, so look for the Fighting Illini to come out hot and maintain a wide margin of victory.

Indiana has trouble rebounding against almost every team it's faced. The Hoosiers rank below 230th in both offensive and defensive rebounding.

Outside of Kel’el Ware, Indiana doesn't have many reliable options to crash the glass. Ware is questionable for Saturday, but even if he does play, Illinois should have a field day on the glass.

The Fighting Illini have size at every position. The smallest regular for Illinois is Justin Harmon at 6-foot-4. Quincy Guerrier, Ty Rodgers, Coleman Hawkins and the rest of the team will take advantage and ensure there's a wide margin on the glass.

Indiana likes shooting 2s, and it's fairly strong at doing so. The problem with that is Illinois is much better defending the interior given its size. The Fighting Illini rank 12th in 2-point rate on defense, and most of their opponents' shots will come from inside the arc.

Illinois ranks third in Rim and 3 Rate defensively, per ShotQuality, so the opposition will take inefficient shots. Indiana, meanwhile, ranks 309th on offense in Rim and 3 Rate.

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On offense, the Fighting Illini launch 3s at a high rate. They're hitting 34.3% from outside with multiple options to go to when in need of a big bucket.

Indiana ranks 308th in allowed 3-point attempt rate, and the opposition is shooting almost 34% from distance on the Hoosiers this year. This combination, again, won't be favorable for Indiana.

The story for Illinois is the return of Terrence Shannon Jr. This is one game where Shannon can bounce back after missing six games.

Illinois only has two players who get fouled often: Shannon and Marcus Domask. Shannon is one of the best in the nation at getting out in transition and either getting an easy basket or getting to the line. Indiana fouls often, even if it has a good transition defense.

Even without Shannon at full game shape, the rest of the Illinois offense has had no problem scoring, and should be able to do so here.

Illinois will be in great shape against Indiana. Look for head coach Brad Underwood to have his team ready against an Indiana team that doesn't rebound well and might have some issues in its frontcourt.

If Ware can't go, the Fighting Illini can be taken to -18.5. If he's active, take Illinois to -17.

Pick: Illinois -13.5 to -17 if Ware Plays; Illinois Up to -18.5 Without Ware