Iowa State vs UCF Odds, Prediction: Back Cyclones on Road?

The surging UCF Knights will face the No. 8 Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday as the Big 12 regular season begins to wind down with the calendar turning to March.

How will this game play out?

Let's take a look at the Iowa State Cyclones vs. UCF Knights odds and make a prediction in this Big 12 college basketball battle.

I know it's not a hot take, but Iowa State has its best team in the T.J. Otzelberger era. He's now made the tournament in three consecutive seasons, but this team has the goods to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.

The Cyclones defense is dominant, ranking second nationally in defensive efficiency.

Iowa State's pressure creates the second-highest turnover rate in the country. You can't drive against the physical on-ball defense from guards Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey, and if you're able to navigate past the guards, Robert Jones will erase the shots at the rim. There simply aren't easy ways to score it against the Cyclones.

But the biggest improvement Iowa State made this year is on the offensive end. In the past two years, the Cyclones' offense ranked outside the top 100 in efficiency, which always kept a relatively limited ceiling. Now, Iowa State ranks 52nd in offensive efficiency. While that's not amazing, it's good enough to see Iowa State make a push in the Big Dance behind its defense.

What's the key difference on offense? Guard play. Lipsey, Gilbert and sixth man Curtis Jones all average over 10 points per game. Lipsey and Gilbert attack the rim more than shoot, while Jones serves as a perimeter shooter and leader of the bench unit.

Lipsey has made huge improvements in his sophomore year in the shooting category. He shot 20% from 3 as a freshman and is shooting over 33% from deep this year. He's made marked strides quickly and will only improve from here.

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UCF is coming off a pair of impressive wins: a double-digit hammering over Texas Tech and a gritty road win in Stillwater over Oklahoma State. The Knights showed resilience Tuesday, storming back from a double-digit deficit in the first half to win by six.

The Knights' defense is one of the best in college hoops, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency. Its defense isn't just great at contesting shots — with a 46.2% opponent effective field goal percentage — but also forces turnovers on 20% of possessions.

You have to love how the Knights found an identity in their first season in the Big 12. Based on talent level alone, UCF ranks near the bottom in the conference. The preseason conference poll ranked UCF right at the bottom. Coach Johnny Dawkins deserves credit for having the Knights in position for an NIT bid in their first Big 12 season.

UCF does show struggles on the offensive end, sitting 166th nationally in offensive efficiency. The biggest problem for UCF is the lack of scoring options. It only has two players averaging double-digit points: guards Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers. Johnson has come up clutch numerous times for the Knights, averaging over 14 points and shooting 37% from 3.

The offense will struggle if Sellers and Johnson have off scoring nights. That's where the talent issues arise. Other pieces like Marchelus Avery, Shemarri Allen and Omar Payne start for their defense, not their offensive ability.

UCF and Iowa State are two of the biggest ATS cash cows in the country. The Cyclones are top 10 (19-8-1 ATS) and UCF covers the spread over 60% of the time. If you've regularly bet on either team, your bankroll probably looks good right now. One will have to lose in this one though.

Iowa State is my pick on the road here. While UCF is usually strong at home, Iowa State has pulled out numerous key road wins. It won't be scared of playing on the road, which is a testament to Otzelberger's coaching. I can't see UCF's only scorers, Sellers and Johnson, scoring enough for the Knights to keep it close.

It'll be a low-scoring game, but Iowa State is the play.

Pick: Iowa State -3.5 (Play to -6)