NCAAB Odds, Picks & Prediction for Iowa State vs Baylor
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Baylor’s Adam Flagler.
Iowa State vs Baylor Odds
|Iowa State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
With the Big 12 all but wrapped up, Iowa State and Baylor are looking to finish strong heading into March Madness.
There should be some urgency, however, for the stumbling Iowa State Cyclones, who have lost four straight games coming into this matchup.
The Baylor Bears are looking to punctuate a great campaign by heading into the conference tournament on a three-game winning streak. They can do so by also avenging an early-season loss to the Cyclones here.
So, which team will end the regular season on a high note? Let’s dive in to find out and uncover the best bet for the matchup along the way.
On paper, the Cyclones have a sizable edge in the paint against this Bears defense. However, Baylor has allowed its opposition to shoot nearly 73% from close proximity, and Iowa State has four players who have shot over 70 percent from the same range.
However, this is not how the Clones picked up the victory in the first meeting. Instead, the Cyclones were proficient from beyond the arc, as Caleb Grill and Gabe Kalscheur combined to go 10-for-19 from deep and accounted for 41 of the Cyclones’ 77 points.
While their outside shooting propelled them in the first game, they’re much better off getting the ball inside if they want to sweep the season series. In addition to its proficiency, Iowa State also has a significant edge on the offensive glass.
If the Cyclones can run their offense and not settle for outside shots, they will be able to limit the Bears’ opportunities and put themselves in a great position.
However, it’s worth noting that Grill was dismissed from the team earlier this week after failing to meet the program’s expectations.
What the Bears were unable to do in the first meeting against Iowa State was drain shots from beyond the arc. It was their worst 3-point shooting performance of the season, as they went just 5-of-22 from deep.
I’m expecting some positive regression this time around, especially when looking at the numbers from that level. Baylor has a trio of guards who have excellent range, and the Cyclones have allowed their opposition to shoot 3s at a high volume this season. Of all opponent shots, 46% have come from distance.
However, if the Bears are going to create open looks from the perimeter, they must limit the turnovers. That’s much easier said than done against an Iowa State team that has the second-highest defensive turnover rate in the country.
Although, after having 19 turnovers in the first meeting, it should be a point of emphasis for the Bears here.
Iowa State vs Baylor Betting Pick
Projection sites have the Bears pegged as six- or seven-point favorites for this matchup. While that number may be accurate given the advantages the Bears have in this matchup, it’s best to back them early.
While season-long motivation may not be a factor, this is a big game for Baylor’s upperclassmen. It’s senior night for Adam Flagler and Flo Thamba, so we should expect the Bears to come out hot and give their fans one final show this season.
Pick: Baylor 1H -3.5 or Better
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