Notre Dame vs. NC State Odds, Picks: Bet Saturday’s Over/Under (Feb. 5)
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Notre Dame vs. NC State Odds
|Notre Dame Odds|
-105o / -115u
|NC State Odds|
-105o / -115u
Well, Notre Dame, at first you had my curiosity, but now you have my undivided attention.
When I first started writing about the Irish in the “State of the ACC” reports, Notre Dame was under the radar and consistently a longshot. Flash forward to today, Notre Dame is now +1200 to win the conference and building some momentum after a win against Miami.
NC State on the other hand has been riding down the road in the struggle bus, freefalling down the standings since the start of the season. The offense showed some fight against weak UNC and Syracuse defenses, but the defense gave open looks all game.
Will NC State’s defense be a thorn in its side once again? Or will Notre Dame continue to build steam en route to an easy next few games?
Let’s find out.
In the midst of a four-game win streak, Notre Dame had to host the measuring stick of the ACC, the Duke Blue Devils. The Irish started uncharacteristically ice cold from deep in the first half, which proved too great to overcome after playing Duke near even in the second half.
Only Paul Atkinson was in double-digit scoring with 14 points, as the team shot just 16.7% from deep and 27.9% from the field. I wish I could say the Irish rebounded well with a good win over Miami, but Notre Dame once again was ice cold from deep, shooting 23.1% from there.
The Irish have a prime opportunity to round back into form with an easy stretch ahead, starting with NC State and its 252nd-ranked AdjD per Kenpom.
Notre Dame plays its cards tight to the vest, playing eight players meaningful minutes, with half of them in double-digit scoring. Balanced between frontcourt and backcourt, Notre Dame’s balanced offense has led to an AdjO rank of 67th so far this season.
The Fighting Irish defense is also above average in the nation, ranked 80th in AdjD. Notre Dame doesn’t generate turnovers at a high rate, instead swarming to the ball and disrupting open looks.
Well balanced on both ends, Notre Dame has been a sneaky good team all season. With a poor NC State defense that solely relies on its offense, Notre Dame may be too superior on both ends for the Wolfpack to overcome.
Other than Georgia Tech, has anyone been more disappointing than NC State so far this season in the ACC?
Starting out 7-4 in non-conference play with one conference game in the middle of it, the Wolfpack crashed hard back to earth with ACC play, now sitting at 3-9 so far this season. The offense is above national average, but the defense is atrocious.
NC State can score with the best of them, keeping pace with the elite offenses in the ACC by scoring 80 against UNC and 82 against Syracuse in its most recent games. The defense, however, has given up a combined 189 points those games as well.
The Wolfpack’s defensive mishaps have led to a national ranking of 250th in AdjD per Kenpom. The offense on the other hand has been elite, as it ranks 38th in AdjO. It will need to once again rely on a barrage of scoring to keep pace with Notre Dame.
Almost all offensive production comes from three players in Dereon Seabron, Terquavion Smith and Jericole Hellems. The trio combining for a scoring average of 48.3 points per game.
Like Notre Dame, NC State also plays tight, playing eight players meaningful minutes, with only the previously mentioned in double-digit scoring.
Notre Dame vs. NC State Betting Pick
It’s never pretty taking the under in a game with two elite offenses, but that is exactly what I am going to do.
Notre Dame is very well balanced on both ends, a unit that is more than capable of slowing down NC State’s offense. It also has shown more than ever that scoring on the road has been tough, so I’ll bank on Notre Dame starting slow again.
Notre Dame plays drastically slow, looking for the best quality shot possible. With a higher potential of a slow start and playing to their pace, this sets up beautiful opportunities for long scoring droughts from the Fighting Irish.
I also am knocking NC State’s chances of scoring at its usual pace as it has benefitted from playing against two atrocious defenses in UNC and Syracuse, now going against a slightly tougher Notre Dame squad.
It won’t be pretty, but most of the bets that cash usually aren’t.
Pick: Under 144
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