NCAAB Odds, Pick for Kansas State vs Iowa State

Conference play is a new season, frequently providing differing evidence from the nonconference portion of the year.

Teams that excelled in that environment do not always thrive against the familiarity and grind of a rigorous league slate. Conversely, some teams hit their stride

This Big 12 matchup is an interesting test case for those notions.

Iowa State was dominant in non-league play, skyrocketing up KenPom’s rankings from 31st in the preseason to a peak of 10th by Christmas. The Cyclones smashed inferior foes, using their pressure defense to snowball big leads into exorbitant final margins.

Kansas State, meanwhile, walked a thin line, winning four games in overtime — including contests against North Alabama and Oral Roberts. The Wildcats also barely escaped Chicago State.

That resulted in a fall from 25th in KenPom’s preseason rankings to a floor of 78th by the time Big 12 play started.

And yet, K-State is now tied atop the standings at 4-1, while Iowa State quickly suffered two road losses and is only a solid 3-2.

Are the Wildcats surging enough to topple Iowa State at Hilton Coliseum?

Sure, Jerome Tang’s squad has started with a softer Big 12 slate. Three of their four wins are over the league’s presumed bottom three: UCF, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. But a win over Baylor and a solid performance at Texas Tech indicate some upside, too.

The Wildcats are winning with defense, limiting easy looks in the paint and challenging perimeter jumpers whenever possible.

Swiss Army knife Arthur Kaluma can guard all five positions, Will McNair is an enforcer at the rim and David N’Guessan and Cam Carter have proven to be disruptive pieces.

Some warning signs exist, however. Opposing 3-point shooting has behaved beneficially — foes are making just 25.8% from beyond the arc in conference play — and K State ranks 13th in defensive rebound rate.

Tang is a tremendous defensive mind, but smallish guards and McNair’s lack of foot speed limit the Wildcats somewhat.

Offensively, the Wildcats are heavily reliant on Carter, Kaluma and Tylor Perry to carry the load.

Carter’s increased efficiency while shouldering a much larger workload has been impressive, while transfers Kaluma and Perry have been roughly as good as advertised. Both have made a multitude of clutch plays late in games.

The Wildcats’ ball security has been a season-long issue, though.

Perry shoulders a huge ball-handling burden, as heralded freshman Dai Dai Ames has not proven to be a Big 12-caliber player just yet. Remove Perry’s 93 assists to just 42 turnovers, and the rest of the squad has a dismal 183:222 assist-to-turnover ratio.

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K-State’s ball-handling faces a nightmarish matchup in this one, as Iowa State’s defense forces turnovers at the highest rate in the entire country, per KenPom.

The Cyclones feast off miscues, turning them into easy baskets and kindling for their inferno of a crowd.

That ability could be somewhat stunted by a lingering shoulder injury to lead guard Tamin Lipsey. Mostly a game manager as a freshman, Lipsey has evolved into a tremendous floor general and slasher to go with a top-five steal rate nationally. He missed the Cyclones’ weekend tilt at TCU, and his status remains day-to-day.

Even without him, though, Iowa State can be hyper-disruptive. UNLV transfer Keshon Gilbert and Buffalo import Curtis Jones are ballhawks in their own right, and the Cyclones’ athleticism near the basket makes it hard to punish the excessive ball pressure.

The turnovers are especially important considering Iowa State’s offense remains an issue. Currently ranking 10th in Big 12 play overall, the Clones lack efficient perimeter shooting outside of smooth freshman forward Milan Momcilovic.

As a result, the Cyclone attack can go through extended droughts when forced to execute in the half-court. That's where Kansas State’s advantage lies, as Tang has built a stout transition unit that also forces jumpers in the half-court.

The matchup sets up well for Iowa State, as do the location splits. The Cyclones are 10-1 against the number in Ames, covering by a staggering 10.4 points per game, according to TeamRankings — again, that’s cover margin, not just winning margin.

Of course, Kansas State has been a road warrior in a limited sample, going 3-0 ATS with a +11.7 average cover margin.

The spread might be inflated somewhat by Iowa State’s early-season demolitions against buy-game foes, and Lipsey’s potential absence would be a major factor. Winning at TCU without him was impressive, but he remains a crucial piece. ISU is 10.6 points better per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, per CBB Analytics.

For those interested, Iowa State could make for a solid piece to a moneyline parlay, but I'm not willing to lay eight points.

Instead, this one has "under" written all over it.

Iowa State’s half-court offense can have long droughts, and though Kansas State’s turnovers could fuel some easy baskets, this should generally be a half-court slugfest.

Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 131)

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