Arch Madness rolls on Friday as No. 3 seed Indiana St. (18-11, 15-12-1 ATS) takes on No. 6 seed Missouri St. (14-15, 19-11 ATS).
Indiana State enters the MVC Tournament on a four-game winning streak and is somehow an underdog to the MVC preseason favorites.
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Missouri State vs. Indiana State
- Spread: Mo. State -2 [In Indiana? Bet Now]
- Over/Under: 136.5
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
According to KenPom, Indiana St. has efficiency differential of +6.8, while Missouri St. has an efficiency differential of only +3.1.
My model also makes this line a few points different, so I think the wrong team is favored in this game.
These teams spilt the regular season matchups, both winning on the other’s home floor. The line opened at Missouri St. -1 and has climbed to -2 this morning despite 80% of the money as of 10 a.m. ET being on Indiana State.
When Indiana St. Has the Ball
Outside of Northern Iowa, Indiana State may have the most efficient offense in the MVC.
ISU has a 52.1% eFG% (ranked 65th in the country), is shooting 38.1% from three (10th) and only turns the ball over at 16.7% rate (47th).
Missouri St. defensively is average at best and struggles in defensive eFG% (193rd), defending the three ball (225th), and forcing turnovers (206th.
If the Sycamores can knock down threes and take care of the ball like they are capable of, they will have no problem on the offensive end of the floor.
When Missouri St. Has the Ball
Missouri St. ranks below average nationally in eFG%, 2P%, and Turnover% on offense. The Bears’ strengths offensively lie behind the arc shooting 35.1% (78th) and on the glass grabbing offensive rebounds at a 31.7% rate (63rd).
However, the Sycamores excel at defending the three ball, only allowing opponents to shoot 31.8% (first in the MVC) and limiting second chance points by only allowing offensive rebounds at a 25.2% rate (56th).
My model has this line at Indiana St. -1.42, so I think betting the Sycamores as an underdog has some value.
Note: As of Thursday night, Jake LaRavia (9.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) Indiana St’s starting PF/C is expected to play through a back injury. If he ends up not playing, I wouldn’t recommend betting Indiana St.
My Pick: Indiana St. +2
