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2021 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Projecting Every Team’s Chances to Reach Final Four, Win National Title

2021 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Projecting Every Team’s Chances to Reach Final Four, Win National Title article feature image
  • The 2021 NCAA Tournament is down to the Sweet 16, and we've updated our model to project every team's chances to reach the Final Four and win the national title.
  • Gonzaga of course is the favorite, with a greater than 50% chance to reach the national title game. We project the Zags over Baylor in the finals.

The madness marches on when the Sweet 16 tips off Saturday.

Whether you're still alive in your original bracket or building a second-chance one, we've projected the final rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

You'll find the projected winner of each remaining actual and potential matchup outlined below, complete with the projected score as calculated by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics. We'll also run through Koerner's projected chances for each team to advance to each of the remaining rounds.

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It should come as little surprise that our projected Final Four features the three remaining 1-seeds as well as one of the two 2-seeds (and that our projected final champion is Gonzaga), but you may find some of the score projections and chances for each team to advance through the final rounds surprising.

Now let's dig in!

NCAA Tournament Odds to Reach Final Four, Win Title

TeamElite 8Final 4Final
(1) Baylor79.34%59.03%40.45%
(5) Villanova20.66%9.34%3.55%
(3) Arkansas84.13%30.10%14.53%
(15) Oral Roberts15.87%1.53%0.24%
(8) Loyola (IL)75.23%33.15%12.48%
(12) Oregon St24.77%5.22%0.89%
(11) Syracuse26.23%11.57%3.12%
(2) Houston73.77%50.05%24.74%
(1) Michigan62.48%39.30%15.09%
(4) Florida St37.52%19.06%5.36%
(11) UCLA29.27%8.02%1.38%
(2) Alabama70.73%33.62%10.87%
(1) Gonzaga86.23%72.05%55.84%
(5) Creighton13.77%6.26%2.35%
(6) USC51.81%11.54%4.94%
(7) Oregon48.19%10.15%4.17%

Sweet 16

West Region

  • (1) Gonzaga vs. (5) Creighton: Gonzaga, 85.0-73.0
  • (6) USC vs. (7) Oregon: USC, 70.2-69.7

East Region

  • (1) Michigan vs. (4) Florida State: Michigan, 74.7-71.2
  • (2) Alabama vs. (11) UCLA: Alabama, 73.2-67.2

South Region

  • (1) Baylor vs. (5) Villanova: Baylor, 79.5-70.5
  • (3) Arkansas vs. (15) Oral Roberts: Arkansas, 83.6-72.6

Midwest Region

  • (2) Houston vs. (11) Syracuse: Houston, 74.4-67.4
  • (8) Loyola Chicago vs. (12) Oregon State: Loyola, 68.1-60.6

Elite Eight

West Region

(1) Gonzaga vs. (6) USC: Gonzaga, 80.2-69.7

East Region

(1) Michigan vs. (2) Alabama: Michigan, 70.8-68.8

South Region

(1) Baylor vs. (3) Arkansas: Baylor, 78.7-72.7

Midwest Region

(2) Houston vs. (8) Loyola Chicago: Houston, 64.8-61.3

Final Four

  • (1) Gonzaga vs. (1) Michigan: Gonzaga, 79.5-73.0
  • (1) Baylor vs. (2) Houston: Baylor, 73.5-70.5


(1) Gonzaga vs. (1) Baylor: Gonzaga, 82.3-78.3

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