Alabama vs Auburn Odds, Predictions & Picks | 2022 Iron Bowl Betting Preview
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama quarterback Bryce Young.
Alabama vs Auburn Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -108 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -112 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +980 |
There may not be a rivalry that delivers more drama on the national stage than the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama.
Alabama leads the series, 48-37-1, with plenty of memorable games in the past.
The Crimson Tide won the first battle of undefeated teams in this series in 1971 before Bo Jackson broke a 10-year Alabama streak by leading Auburn to victory in 1982.
While "The Fumble" of 1997 and the Cam Newton comeback of 2010 are notable, the greatest play in college football history will always be the "Kick Six"
For all of the greatness in this rivalry, change is on the horizon for both programs.
Alabama is fighting to remain in a New Year's Six bowl, as the Crimson Tide are set to miss the College Football Playoff for the second time since its inception in 2014.
Rumors persist of Lane Kiffin accepting the head-coaching position at Auburn despite interim coach Cadillac Williams pushing for a bowl appearance.
With Bryce Young and Will Anderson set to enter the 2023 NFL Draft, this version of the Iron Bowl will be a memorable bookmark in the series.
Alabama Crimson Tide
This will be the first time in the playoff era that Alabama heads into the Iron Bowl with no path to the national semifinals.
In 2019, the Crimson Tide entered the pivotal rivalry game with a single loss to eventual national champion LSU. Alabama suffered a three-point loss to lock up a trip to the Citrus Bowl, underperforming preseason expectations.
With no high-profile bowl coming to Alabama in the postseason, head coach Nick Saban must motivate a team suffering from injuries.
Running back Jahmyr Gibbs returned to practice, along with cornerback Eli Ricks. The bigger injury may be left tackle Tyler Steen, as freshman Elijah Pritchett will log his first start with the task of protecting the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner's blind side.
Young is once again expected to put on another clinic in avoiding pressure.
Bryce Young illustrating pressure to sack ratio@AlabamaFTBL | #RollTidepic.twitter.com/wn8jKceglK
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 6, 2022
The Alabama defense has been chewed up over the past few weeks, surrendering 56 combined points to Ole Miss and LSU. The season-long numbers provide insight into the dip, as the Tide's numbers in Havoc, Line Yards and Finishing Drives have fallen outside the top 30.
Alabama has been a menace in limiting explosive plays and enters this game as the 12th-best defense in third-down stops. However, offenses that have high marks in Success Rate have found ways to drive down the field and put up points.
Auburn Tigers
After a post-bye week loss to Arkansas, the Tigers moved on from Bryan Harsin as head coach. The firing has been profitable for investors, as Auburn has covered all three games against Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Western Kentucky since.
Williams has gotten the most out of a rush-based offense led by quarterback Robby Ashford. The freshman has an even balance of rushing yards from designed runs and scramble opportunities, racking up 26 attempts longer than 10 yards.
The ability to create explosive plays next to running back Tank Bigsby has forced opposing defenses to load the box, giving Ashford the chance to show off his cannon of an arm.
This is what Robby Ashford brings to the table for Auburn. He’s DYNAMIC. pic.twitter.com/XpzikwyLhz
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 1, 2022
The Auburn defense has improved over the past two games, allowing 27 combined points and just 600 total yards. The Tigers have shut down passing attacks, ranking 15th in coverage grading, per PFF.
Auburn has been terrible against the rush with a Defensive Stuff Rate and Havoc rank inside the bottom 15 of FBS.
Defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding is focused on reaching a bowl despite coming with Harsin from Boise State. However, getting opposing offenses behind schedule has been the primary struggle.
Alabama vs Auburn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Auburn match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Alabama Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 18 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 63 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 33 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Alabama Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 115 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 17 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 6 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 31 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 15 | 13 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 56 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (86) | 26.0 (52) |
| Rush Rate | 61.0% (19) | 50.3% (89) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Alabama vs Auburn Betting Pick
The biggest issue with Alabama in 2022 has been penalties. The Crimson Tide rank 120th in penalties this season, averaging more than 67 yards on eight flags per game.
The handicap in this game comes down to stopping Auburn's zone read with Ashford and Bigsby. Alabama has struggled to stop quarterbacks who excel in zone read and play action, most recently taking a loss to Jayden Daniels and LSU.
JAYDEN DANIELS TO MASON TAYLOR FOR THE GAME-WINNING 2-POINT CONVERSION
LSU BEATS ALABAMA AND TAKES CONTROL OF THE SEC WESTpic.twitter.com/Oa78A51LfG
— 247Sports (@247Sports) November 6, 2022
The Tide's Finishing Drives rank has been on the downtick in recent games. Both LSU and Ole Miss converted six scoring opportunities into 24 points.
The Tigers were electric in passing downs, posting a Success Rate 17% greater than the Alabama offense in Week 10. Meanwhile, Ole Miss' Quinshon Judkins and Jonathan Mingo posted a Standard Downs Success Rate 11% better than Alabama in a loss.
Auburn will move the ball with Ashford and Bigsby, as Alabama's defense has been content to allow points in opponents' scoring opportunities.
The Action Network projection makes Alabama a 19.5-point favorite with a total of 56.
There's small value in a motivated Tigers team looking to score enough points to make this rivalry game competitive. Look for Auburn to ignore the APR rankings and challenge Alabama for a sixth win.
Pick: Over 49.5 or Better · Auburn +22 or Better |
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