Boise State vs North Texas Odds, Prediction: Broncos to Win Big?
Tyler Ingham/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Boise State running back George Holani (left) and North Texas quarterback Austin Aune (right).
- North Texas and Boise State go head to head in the 2022 Frisco Bowl.
- Both these teams are coming off losses in their respective conference championship games and are looking to end the season on a high note.
- Mike Ianniello previews the game and shares his best bet below.
Boise State vs North Texas Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
The 2022 Frisco Bowl will be a chance for redemption for either North Texas or Boise State. The game will pit a pair of teams that fell in their conference championship against each other as they look to get the taste of defeat out of their mouths.
Despite reaching the Conference USA Championship for the first time since 2017, North Texas head coach Seth Littrell was fired after the game. He led the Mean Green to the postseason in six of his seven seasons in Denton but failed to win a bowl.
Boise State did its firing in the middle of the season. The Broncos fired offensive coordinator Tom Plough after Week 4 and went on to win seven of their next eight games before falling to Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship.
Both of these teams have a chance to bounce back from the conference championship loss and end their season on a high note. Boise State is favored by double digits in this one, but does it have enough motivation to cover the large spread?
Boise State Broncos
When Boise State fired its offensive coordinator after four weeks, it also benched quarterback Hank Bachmeier. Redshirt freshman Taylen Green took over, and the team went 7-2 with him leading the way.
Since Green took over as the starter, the dual-threat weapon has averaged 194.4 yards passing and 40.5 yards rushing per game. He has 13 scores through the air and eight on the ground.
Green is joined in the backfield by stud running back George Holani and emerging freshman Ashton Jeanty. Holani finished second in the Mountain West with 1,133 yards and has 10 touchdowns.
The Broncos boasted the best defense in the Mountain West and one of the top units in the entire Group of Five. This unit ranked sixth in the nation in Defensive Success Rate, sitting top-20 against the pass and the run.
No team in the country has a better Success Rate defending the pass than Boise State. Opponents have completed just 51% of their passes against the Broncos with just 11 touchdowns through the air and 160.7 passing yards per game.
Safety JL Skinner is the quarterback of this secondary.
North Texas Mean Green
Saturday will mark the final collegiate game for 29-year-old quarterback Austin Aune. A former second-round draft pick of the New York Yankees, Aune will enter his name into the 2023 NFL Draft.
Aune finished second in Conference USA with 32 touchdown passes but also second with 13 interceptions. He has a pair of dynamic receivers in Jyaire Shorter and Roderic Burns. Shorter ranked second in the C-USA, hauling in 10 touchdown catches.
Running the ball is the name of the game for the Mean Green though. Led by the three-headed monster of Ayo Adeyi, Ikaika Ragsdale and Oscar Adaway, Nort Texas ranks top-25 in the country with over 200 rushing yards per game.
Each back averages over 55 yards per game, although Adaway has missed the last four games.
North Texas struggled defensively this year, ranking 124th in the country by allowing over 460 yards per game. It was especially bad against the run, coming in at 121st in Rushing Success Rate. Opponents ran for 23 touchdowns against the Mean Green.
Linebacker KD Davis is the leader of this defense and the Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year. He racked up 132 tackles, good for 10th in the nation.
Boise State vs North Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and North Texas match up statistically:
Boise State Offense vs. North Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 121 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 98 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 44 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 117 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
North Texas Offense vs. Boise State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 110 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 1 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 63 | 67 |  |
| Havoc | 19 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 11 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 27 | 64 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 48 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 53 | 17 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (79) | 23.8 (20) |
| Rush Rate | 58.0% (31) | 55.6% (55) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Boise State vs North Texas Betting Pick
Despite each team losing in the conference title game, they went about it in different ways. Boise State actually outgained Fresno State by over 75 yards, while UTSA dominated the Mean Green and outgained them by over 200.
The Broncos are are run-first team, ranking 21st in the country in rushing rate behind Holani, Jeanty and the legs of Green. They should run wild against a Mean Green defense that's one of the worst in college football at defending the run.
North Texas has been up and down offensively and has really struggled to consistently move the ball against the better defenses it's faced. Now, it will have to play the best defense it's played all season.
When it comes to motivation, the Mean Green have already lost their coach, their quarterback next year and have a lot of uncertainty moving forward with a lot of players likely pondering their future.
Boise State seems to have regained its position as one of the top teams in the Mountain West and will be looking to go into the offseason with momentum and a full offseason with Green under center.
Boise interim offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter announced he will retire following this game after 39 years of coaching. He has been a head coach in both college and the NFL, and the Idaho native and former Broncos head coach returned to Boise for one final year. Koetter was adamant that he wants to leave Green with a win, and you can bet this Broncos team wants to send the veteran off in style as well.
Boise State should have significant advantages on both sides of the ball, as well as in the motivation department. Back the Broncos to pull away with this one in hand.
Pick: Boise State -10.5 (Play to -12.5) |
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