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BYU vs. Troy Betting Odds & Pick: Offenses Follow the Recipe For the Under (Saturday, Sept. 26)

BYU vs. Troy Betting Odds & Pick: Offenses Follow the Recipe For the Under (Saturday, Sept. 26) article feature image

Chris Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson.

  • BYU takes on Troy for some late-night college football action to cap off Saturday.
  • The Cougar offense is known for playing at an extremely slow pace, while the Trojans lack explosiveness.
  • Collin Wilson thinks the two offenses create the perfect recipe for an under in the nightcap.

BYU vs. Troy Odds

BYU Odds -14.5 [BET NOW]
Troy Odds +14.5 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 59 [BET NOW]
Time 10:15 p.m. ET

Odds as of early Saturday Night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The biggest news out of Provo this week was quarterback Zach Wilson’s bout with COVID-19 after a team gambling night. Thankfully, the Cougars signal-caller indicated the event — and subsequent infection — occurred some time ago, and there are no current clusters in the Cougars program.

Both Teams Are Still Untested

Frankly, we still don’t know very much about the fiber of either of these teams.  BYU has played just one game: A Labor Day evening romp of Navy. The Cougars posted an explosive drive rate of 41% with an overall success rate of 72%.

Troy had similar success in its first game of the season against Middle Tennessee. The Trojans established an uptempo pace of 23 seconds per play while posting an overall success rate of 54%. The Troy defense limited the Blue Raiders to just one rush over 12 yards and two passes over 15 yards.

While those are decent openers from each team, there are a few statistics that dictate a play on the last game of Saturday evening.

As we turn the page towards No. 18 BYU, one last look at the highlights from our win at Middle Tennessee.#DTW | #OneTROY ⚔️🏈

— Troy Trojans Football 😷 (@TroyTrojansFB) September 22, 2020

Tempo is The Key Handicap For Saturday Night

BYU runs its offense at a snail’s pace. The Cougars averaged 31 seconds per play against Navy. That’s on par for the BYU offense, which has finished outside the top 100 FBS programs in average plays per game in each of the past three seasons.

The Cougars are a run-heavy team, rolling with 49 rushing plays and only 12 passing plays against Navy. The absence of BYU star tight end Matt Bushman further discourages the Cougars from airing it out too often. Bushman suffered a torn Achilles tendon during a routing practice on Aug. 31.

Troy’s Tempo is Disguising its Flaws

A closer look at the advanced box score for Troy’s win over Middle Tennessee reveals a lack of explosiveness. The Trojans had an explosive drive percentage of 7.7%, well below the national average of 13%. Troy only converted one pass and one rush for 20 yards or more.

Even in a 47-14 blowout, Troy only achieved a milquetoast 53.8% success rate, just above the national average for FBS teams. Although Troy runs plays at a faster pace, this is not a team that excels at busting open big plays or nickel-and-diming its way down the field. Troy only distinguishes itself by being particularly quick resetting at the line of scrimmage.

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How to Play It

If BYU elects to grind the game out in the trenches against a Sun Belt team, the pace could be even slower than expected. Both teams scored nearly 120 combined points in their initial games of the season, but those high scores are a mirage disguising BYU’s painfully slow tempo and Troy’s offensive insufficiencies.

It won’t be pretty, but the under is definitely the look for Saturday’s nightcap.

The Bet: Under 61

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