Welcome to Week 7.
Saturday's slate kicks off at Noon with huge conference matchups, including Alabama-Missouri and UCLA-Michigan State.
Our experts spent the week putting together the best college football betting content in the business. Check out some of our favorite wagers below in our college football best bets and NCAAF Picks for Week 7 on Saturday, October 11.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Collin's Card: Noon Best Bet
There's a stark contrast in strength of schedule between these two teams, but a question remains: Will the Alabama defense be able to tackle Ahmad Hardy?
The Crimson Tide have been successful against most run concepts, with the exception of inside zone, a concept in the Tigers' arsenal that they've run at the second-highest rate.
Alabama ranks 78th nationally in Defensive Stuff Rate, so the expectation is that Hardy will bust through the line of scrimmage.
However, Hardy isn't expected to create nearly as many missed tackles as the Crimson Tide defense, which committed just 13 combined against Vanderbilt and Georgia.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been near immaculate this season, posting an adjusted completion percentage of 81% with 13 touchdowns. In 111 completions on 158 attempts, 10 of the misfires have come from drops.
Missouri will show primarily Cover 3, a secondary tendency that Simpson has dominated this season. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels posted six explosives through the air against the Tigers' defense, along with a Passing Downs Success Rate 10% higher than the national average.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings favor Alabama by a single point, giving Missouri the edge in the market.
The Tigers have two major factors working in their favor: Alabama's inability to stop inside zone and the situational spot.
The Crimson Tide are coming off two physical games against Vanderbilt and Georgia, while Missouri has had two weeks to prepare after facing UMass for homecoming weekend on Sept. 27.
Alabama was in this exact scenario last season, a small non-cover win over South Carolina after facing Georgia and Vanderbilt.
Check out Collin's full Alabama-Mizzou breakdown and more wagers in his full Week 7 card:
Pick: Missouri +3 (-110, bet365)
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Stuckey's Spots: Noon Best Bet
By Stuckey
This is obviously a tough spot for the Bruins after pulling off one of the most shocking upsets of the season last week against Penn State as 24.5-point underdogs.
Now, they must regain focus for a road trip out east for a noon ET kick (9 a.m. body clock for UCLA) against Michigan State.
UCLA deserved that victory last week, but I believe it benefited immensely from the situational spot with Penn State coming off a devastating overtime loss against Oregon in a game it had circled since the end of last season.
The Nittany Lions were also the team in that instance that had to deal with traveling across multiple time zones.
UCLA also had a new play-caller in Jerry Neuheisel, who added some new wrinkles that really unleashed Nico Iamaleava's legs. Well, that game is now on film.
Additionally, Michigan State should get a few key bodies back this week on defense, and the Spartans have done a respectable job of containing the quarterback run game thanks to a very underrated linebacker room.
From a matchup perspective, applying pressure on Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is the most effective way to neutralize Michigan State's offense. The team has lost multiple offensive linemen to injury, forcing its right tackle to move to the left side in recent weeks.
It's a significant area of weakness, which is troubling for Chiles, who has performed at an abysmal level when opposing defenses can get pressure. That's when all of the mistakes come.
Well, fortunately for Chiles, who has been pressured at one of the 25 highest rates in the country, UCLA has generated pressure at one of the two lowest rates among all Power 4 teams (along with North Carolina) at right around 20%.
The Michigan State offensive line has a chance to hold up in this one to allow its talented receivers time to win one-on-one battles on the outside, which will rarely be a luxury for this Spartans team in Big Ten play.
Yes, the Bruins have played a fairly difficult schedule, but the defense still ranks dead last nationally in Success Rate allowed. The talent on that side of the ball has dropped precipitously after several NFL departures in the offseason.
There's one cornerback I really like, in addition to an interior defensive lineman. The linebacker group also has a few playmakers.
But this is still a group that couldn't come close to getting a stop against New Mexico and trailed Northwestern, 17-0, in the second half before a late rally fell short in the following week.
The newly appointed hires at head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have certainly implemented positive changes and injected life into the previously corpse-like Bruins.
Nico has also looked much better at quarterback over the past few weeks, but the offensive line remains very poor. The wide receiver room is also underwhelming as a whole.
I usually love what I see during the scripted portion of games under Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith, and there's a real chance UCLA comes out a bit lethargic for an early kick in the Eastern Time Zone following last week's monumental upset.
After two challenging road games (with a bye in between) against USC and Nebraska, and with Indiana on deck, I expect a focused effort from Michigan State. The Spartans basically need this game for any shot at getting to a bowl.
Read Stuckey's full UCLA-Michigan State breakdown and more in his Week 7 situational spots piece:
Pick: Michigan State -7.5 (-110, bet365)
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Our Featured Bet Labs System
This game triggered one of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Early Road Redemption is a college football system that identifies value in visiting teams during the opening stretch of the season when they have underperformed against the spread in their previous outing.
The market often punishes these teams too heavily for a single early loss, creating inflated lines in the next matchup.
By narrowing the spread range between modest underdogs and double-digit spots, the system captures situations where the road team is competitive but overlooked.
These games are played in manageable weather conditions and typically fall within lower scoring totals, which reduces volatility and keeps contests closer than expected.
When teams in their first eight games seek redemption on the road after a poor showing against the spread, they frequently outperform expectations, making this a profitable angle.
For what it's worth, this system is 15-11 this season, a 58% win rate that's produced a 10% ROI.
I'll be backing Charlotte, not because I trust the 49ers, but because I almost always fade Service Academies laying over two touchdowns. The triple-option doesn't typically result in blowout wins. Over the past two decades, Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 42-60-1 (41%) ATS as two-plus touchdown favorites.
I realize that Army is more explosive than ever this season, but I'm still trusting in our systems and fading the Black Knights on Saturday.
Want more PRO betting systems? Click below to get a sweet deal on an Action PRO account:
Pick: Charlotte +18 (-110, bet365)
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BBOC's Full Action App Card
Need more bets for Saturday's slate? Or, did you miss this week's episode of Big Bets On Campus?
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