College Football Odds, Best Bets: Our Top Picks for Iowa vs Tennessee, Wisconsin vs LSU
Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Iowa’s Logan Lee (85), Joe Evans (13), Deacon Hill (10) and Yahya Black (94).
Monday College Football Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The final bowl games of the 2023-24 college football season are upon us.
With three bowl games preceding Monday's College Football Playoff semifinal games, our staff came through with four best bets.
Before the world turns its attention to the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl, we'll be betting the ReliaQuest Bowl between LSU and Wisconsin and the Citrus Bowl between Tennessee and Iowa.
Check out all four of our best bets for Monday's college football bowl games below.
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Wisconsin vs. LSU
No Jayden Daniels, no problem — at least not when you’re playing an offense as undermanned as Wisconsin’s is.
Year 1 of offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s Dairy Raid was an “udder” disaster with the Badgers ranking 100th in Pass Success Rate and finishing second-to-last in the Big Ten in pass yards per completion.
That stands to get worse in the bowl game, as Wisconsin will be without two of its top four receivers and center Tanor Bortolini, who opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
But at least the Badgers can turn to one of the nation’s best running backs in Braelon Allen, right? Wrong. Allen, too, has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, meaning the Badgers will turn to Jackson Acker — the team’s fourth-leading rusher — for the majority of work out of the backfield.
While Wisconsin will be grasping for points against a defense even as poor as LSU’s, the Tigers are in great shape to not skip much of a beat despite the absence of the Heisman-winning Daniels.
Garrett Nussmeier, who's fighting for the 2024 starting job, has the complete LSU receiving corps to throw to, including Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., the nation’s No. 1 and No. 15 receivers, respectively.
Nussmeier is more of a pocket passer than Daniels, but Wisconsin ranks just 60th in Havoc and will be without three starting defenders, including cornerback Jason Maitre.
It’s no secret that this LSU defense is about as bad as it gets in the Power 5, but the Tigers offense — even sans Daniels — requires opponents to engage in a track meet. The Badgers have crawled all season, and they’ll be without their only threat.
LSU simply scores too much for a diminished Wisconsin team to keep pace.
Pick: LSU -9.5 (Play to -10)
Iowa vs. Tennessee
Iowa may be the punching bag for many jokes given its lackluster offense, but people forget the Hawkeyes still possess an elite defensive unit.
Tennessee starting quarterback Joe Milton has opted out of this game, leaving the Vols to start true freshman Nico Iamaleava.
Talk about a very difficult stage to make your collegiate debut. I expect Iowa to load the box, take away the run and then look to get after the youngster with pressure.
That will make it very difficult for the Volunteers to consistently move the ball.
When Deacon Hill and the Hawkeyes have possession, it will be ugly at times. But Iowa should be able to have some success on the ground against a mediocre Tennessee front.
I think the Hawkeyes can do just enough on offense to actually have a decent chance of pulling off the outright upset, so I will gladly scoop the points in what should be a competitive Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.
Pick: Iowa +5.5
The 2023 Iowa team has had one of the most inept offenses in recent college football history. Offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is on his way out, and good riddance.
Ferentz was so inept that the Hawkeyes became a meme this year, having the lowest total of all time — 25.5 points against Nebraska — where the under still cashed.
Ferentz couldn’t hit his very publicized 25 points-per-game mark and didn’t really come close. Why?
Well, digging into their advanced offensive metrics gives us a strong hint. The Hawkeyes ranked last in Offensive Success Rate and explosiveness.
Their other metrics were not much better, ranking 126th in Offensive Points per Opportunity and 112th in Havoc Allowed.
These are not the numbers of a serious Power 5 football program, and Kirk Ferentz should be ashamed that he allowed nepotism and the desire to employ his son derail what was an incredible season by this defense.
Speaking of the Hawkeyes defense, they rank seventh in Success Rate Allowed, second in explosiveness allowed and ninth in Points per Opportunity Allowed.
On the flip side, the Nico Iamaleava era starts now for the Volunteers. With Joe Milton sitting out, the former blue-chip recruit will hope to start his career off with a nice win.
However, I think Tennessee will struggle to move the ball and convert red zone trips into touchdowns. They ranked 92nd in Points per Opportunity in the regular season, and I don’t see that getting better in one game — especially against Iowa's defense.
I’m more than happy to take the under in this spot. Hopefully, Tennessee doesn’t hit it by itself.
Pick: Under 36 (Play to 35.5 at -115)
Everyone knows the story about Iowa at this point. For those who are uninformed, the defense is really good and the offense is really bad.
Before we get any further, I think it’s important to highlight that the under has hit in 11 of the Hawkeyes' 13 (84.6%) games this season.
How good is the Iowa defense? It ranks in the top 10 in scoring defense, total defense and passing defense. As for rushing defense, it's quite good at that too, ranking just outside the top 10 at 12th nationally.
The problem for Iowa is it just can’t score. The Hawkeyes enter the game as the 130th-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging just 16.6 points per game.
Even though the Tennessee defense is dealing with opt-outs from key starters, it’s likely safe to assume that the Volunteer backups should keep their lethargic opponent in check.
Tennessee will be without starting quarterback Joe Milton, starting running back Jaylen Wright and backup running back Jabari Small. Nico Iamaleava will be starting in Millton’s place and could not get a more difficult matchup in his first start.
Iamaleava has attempted only 26 passes this season but will be tested against a Hawkeyes defense that allows just 172.2 passing yards per game.
Perhaps Tennessee can turn to the run game, but it will be looking to its third-string running back to shoulder the load against an Iowa run defense that has allowed only four rushing touchdowns all season.
I like backing the under one last time this season, as the Phil Parker-led defense will be out for blood against a freshman making his first start.
I recommend playing the under at 34.5 or higher.
Pick: Under 36 (Play to 34.5 at -115)
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