College Football Group of 5 Parlay: Week 7 Picks for Ohio vs Northern Illinois, UNLV vs Nevada, FAU vs USF (Saturday, Oct. 14)
Louis Grasse/Getty Images. Pictured: UNLV’s Thomas Anderson.
Group of Five Deep Dive co-host Mike Ianniello is here this week to share his favorite three-leg Group of Five college football parlay for Week 7.
Ianniello is targeting three road favorites on Saturday, with picks for FAU vs. USF, Ohio vs. Northern Illinois and UNLV vs. Nevada.
FAU vs. USF
I think this is the absolute bottom of the market on Florida Atlantic.
The Owls entered 2023 with a win total of 7.5 and the fifth-best odds to win the AAC. But after a disappointing 2-3 start, they're now an underdog to South Florida.
There's a lot of uncertainty in this one.
We still don’t know what FAU is under Tom Herman. They have three tough losses against Ohio, Clemson, and Illinois. Starting Quarterback Casey Thompson went down against Clemson and is lost for the season.
Central Michigan transfer Daniel Richardson’s first start with FAU was in a brutal spot on the road against Illinois. He played okay, but the Owls still came up short. They won an ugly one against Tulsa last week, but Richardson didn't look great. He was terrific for Central Michigan in 2021 but took a step back last season before transferring.
The Owls did show commitment to the run game last week following their bye. They set a season-high with 43 rushing attempts, amassing 234 yards and two scores on the ground.
Larry McCammon looked terrific, accounting for 130 yards and the two scores. He's averaging 5.8 yards per carry and will continue to be relied on. His running mate, Kobe Lewis, is also talented.
FAU also has several explosive receivers. LaJohntay Wester, Tony Johnson, and Je’Quan Burton are all dangerous with the ball in their hand. Richardson just needs to get them the ball.
As bad as the Owls have looked, I don’t think South Florida is that great. The Bulls can’t stop the run, which could be problematic if FAU continues leaning on the running game.
The Bulls beat Rice and Navy but also lost by three scores to a bad UAB team. The Blazers put up 608 yards of offense against this South Florida defense. They had 355 yards and four touchdowns passing alongside 253 yards and four touchdowns rushing.
As much as I have downgraded Florida Atlanta from their preseason expectations, I still think this team is better than South Florida when they put everything together. Even with this game in Tampa, the home-field advantage shouldn't be huge.
Buy low on the Owls.
Play: FAU +2.5
Ohio vs. Northern Illinois
I think people are forgetting how good this Ohio Bobcats team was last year because of how the season ended.
The Bobcats went 10-4 last year and, more importantly, were 10-4 against the spread (ATS). Ohio was one of the nation's most profitable teams.
Most people outside Toledo would agree that Ohio likely would've won the MAC in 2022 if quarterback Kurtis Rourke didn’t get hurt. I think it's a reason the Bobcats are being slept on. Rourke also got banged up in the season-opening loss to San Diego State.
Over the last two years with a healthy Rourke, Ohio is 12-3 overall and 8-1 against conference opponents. Over the last three weeks, Ohio has upset Iowa State, crushed Bowling Green and crushed Kent State, looking like its old self again.
Rourke has been nearly perfect over the past two weeks, throwing for six touchdowns and no picks while completing over 70% of his passes. His top receiver, Sam Wiglusz, was also dealing with an injury early in the season but is back to full strength, finding the endzone last week.
The running game started slowly, but Sieh Bangura and O’Shaan Allison are two talented backs, and that tandem is beginning to get back on track. Bangura appeared snake-bitten but finally found the end zone for the first time last week, following it up with a second score for good measure.
Conversely, the defense has needed no time to jell. That unit's been lights out all year. I don't care about their strength of schedule. This MAC defense still ranks 12th nationally in Success Rate allowed.
Even when teams move the ball against Ohio, the Bobcats shut them down when it matters most, ranking second nationally in preventing Finishing Drives.
The Bobs are also seventh nationally in Havoc generated and 16th in PFF's Pressure grades. Edge rusher Vonnie Watkins has 22 pressures and 19 hurries this year. He and Shane Bonner live in the opponent's backfield.
Ohio is particularly good at stuffing the run, which is what Northern Illinois wants to do. The Huskies are at their best when establishing the ground game, partially because Rocky Lombardi has been inconsistent. The seasoned vet has five touchdowns to four picks, so NIU has given backup Ethan Hampton game reps.
Further illustrating Ohio's undervalued-ness, Toledo was a 13.5-point favorite against Northern Illinois two weeks ago. That implies Toleo would be a touchdown favorite against Ohio. That's crazy.
Our Action Network Power Ratings make Toledo a two-point favorite on a neutral field against Ohio and the Bobcats an 8.5-point favorite here against Northern Illinois.
Play: Ohio -5.5
UNLV vs. Nevada
Why is nobody talking about how UNLV is 4-1?
The team hasn’t made a bowl game since 2013, yet they might reach that mark by Halloween.
Forget Texas. Is UNLV back?
The Rebels are 5-0 ATS this season. They beat Bryant, covered against Michigan, upset Vanderbilt, crushed UTEP and crushed Hawaii.
Even when quarterback Doug Brumfield went down, true freshman Jayden Maiava stepped in and has kept things rolling. He's thrown three touchdowns and added another rushing score over his past three games.
That said, the "Running" Rebels still "run" the show.
Jai’Den Thomas, Vincent Davis Jr, Donavyn Lester, and Courtney Reese have been a four-headed monster in the UNLV backfield. All four have over 27 yards per game rushing.
Davis Jr., Lester and Reese are all seniors, providing leadership and experience in the backfield. Yet, the freshman Thomas has established himself as the top option. He's got seven touchdowns already, with 168 of his 265 rushing yards coming after contact.
The Rebels are averaging 214 rushing yards per game.
They have 17 rushing scores. Only Air Force and Texas State have more.
They're 12th nationally in rushing Explosiveness and eighth in 20-plus-yard rushes with 13.
That spells big trouble for a Nevada defense that ranks 131st in rushing Explosiveness allowed. Only one team has allowed more 20-plus-yard rushing plays than Nevada. They're surrendering 5.8 yards per carry.
Nevada is dead last nationally in Success Rate allowed. They're dead last nationally in preventing Havoc on offense, and we know UNLV can create Havoc.
The Wolfpack are 0-5 this year, and quarterback Brandon Lewis has no touchdowns and four interceptions. He was benched last week for freshman AJ Bianco but will apparently start again this week despite completing fewer than 60% of his passes while averaging 4.8 yards per attempt.
We have seen UNLV blow out two bad teams in a row. Nevada is a horrific team.
Back the Rebels to win another one by double digits and take another step closer to returning to the postseason.
Play: UNLV -7.5
Ianniello's Week 7 Group of 5 Parlay
- FAU +2.5
- Ohio -5.5
- UNLV -7.5
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