Saturday College Football Picks: Our Top Week 7 NCAAF Favorites, Featuring Utah & South Carolina
James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided last year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites, which we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, Louisiana got to the window for me, but Boise couldn't get home for Collin despite winning the game outright after falling too far behind in the first half.
After back-to-back sweeps, we have split each of the past two Saturdays, bringing our record to 8-4 (66.7%) on the season. Hopefully, we can bring the brooms back out this weekend.
For Week 7, we are both rolling with a pair of Power 5 home teams kicking off in the afternoon.
Wilson: Utah -10.5
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | +375 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | -500 |
Editor's Note: Utah is expected to start Bryson Barnes at quarterback while using Nate Johnson as a change-of-pace signal-caller, according to ESPN's Pete Thamel.
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Rumors continue to swirl over the health of quarterback Cam Rising, who has yet to take a snap under center since suffering a knee injury in last year's Rose Bowl. After Utah failed to add another quarterback in the transfer portal, some believed that was a signal Rising could return for the start of the season, but that didn't come to fruition.
However, after the quarterback sat out the first month-plus, head coach Kyle Whittingham remarked that Rising “looked good” during practice. The entire world, including Rising himself, waits for the call from Dr. Neal ElAttrache on clearing the super senior for game action.
As rumors persist, many around the program believe Rising could play in Week 7 against Cal. If Utah gets its most valuable player back, which I believe is more likely than not, the offense would finally have a pulse and this number would be significantly short of my projection of more than two touchdowns.
Additionally, Utah should come in fresh, healthier and fully prepared under one of the best coaches in the country following a much-needed bye week. Where Utah lacks in offense, the defense has been more than happy to step up and carry the water.
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A Week 4 victory by the Utes over UCLA was secured by a 21-yard pick-six from Karene Reid. The Bruins were stuffed on 15 of their 25 rushing attempts, giving the offense an average third-down distance of 10.3 yards.
After 11 tackles for loss and four sacks, Utah has established an identity as the best defense west of the Mississippi River.
It should have no issues slowing Cal down enough to extend to a comfortable lead, especially if Rising suits up, as both Nate Johnson and Bryson Barnes have been below replacement level, struggling to generate any success or scoring drives.
Cal will play only its second road game this season, fresh off a home loss to Oregon State in Week 6.
The Bears have struggled to throw the ball downfield, ranking 91st in Passing Success Rate and 83rd in air explosives. Rushing into the teeth of the Utah defense won't lead to much success, as the Utes rank in the top 10 against the rush in all analytical splits.
Even if Rising can't go, the Utah backups should find some success (especially after working during the bye) against a horrific Cal defense that ranks in the bottom five nationally in two key defensive areas — passing explosives and Finishing Drives.
As a result, both Barnes and Johnson could find plenty of open targets when knocked out of standard downs.
I expect Utah to cash in on drives that extend beyond the 40 against a Cal defense that has allowed an average of 5.1 points in 32 opponent scoring opportunities.
If all else fails for Barnes and Johnson, the defense is more than capable of leading Utah to a cover in Rice-Eccles Stadium, as we've seen many times in the past.
Stuckey: South Carolina -2.5
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +114 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -137 |
I'm happy to fade Graham Mertz on the road in the SEC in a game where I essentially just need the Gamecocks to win outright.
South Carolina should come in much healthier after a much-needed bye week — a situation where Shane Beamer has thrived during his young head-coaching tenure. He owns a perfect 3-0 ATS record with extra rest, covering by more than three touchdowns per game. His South Carolina team actually won all three games outright as underdogs against SEC opponents.
That extra time should also really benefit a very young offensive line that has clearly needed time to jell.
Plus, the Gamecocks will face a Gators squad that has dropped 13 of its last 14 away from the Swamp, including a bad loss at Vanderbilt and a 23-point loss at South Carolina in 2021.
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Not only will the Gamecocks come in with much fresher legs and more time to prepare, but they have also talked at length about wanting to avenge last year's embarrassing 38-6 loss in Gainesville. I expect them to come out with their hair on fire against a quarterback that hasn't shown well in his career against competent opponents.
This is still a very limited Florida passing attack and an overrated defense that got shredded by Kentucky and couldn't even slow down a Utah offense (without Rising) that hasn't found any footing since that season-opening win.
Plus, not only does this set up as a nice situational spot for South Carolina, but I believe it also comes into this SEC showdown a bit undervalued in the market after one of the most difficult schedules in the country to date.
All three of its losses have come against ranked opponents with a combined 15-1 record in Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia, and all three of those also came away from home.
I'll side with the home team coming off of a bye with the better quarterback laying under a field goal.
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