Texas A&M vs Ole Miss Odds & Pick: College Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Nov. 4)

Ole Miss fans are probably sick and tired of hearing it brought up, but a one-loss record heading into November should bering back some scary memories.

Last season Ole Miss carried an 8-1 record into November, only to lose four straight. The Rebels are a similar 7-1 as the 11th month begins and hoping to avoid another collapse.

Texas A&M (5-3), meanwhile, gets its third crack at a ranked team this season. The Aggies are 0-2 in their first two efforts of the season and actually haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road since 2014.

Jimbo Fisher’s job security could likely be determined in the next two weeks, so do the Aggies have enough in Oxford to keep him around?

Texas A&M arrives in Oxford amidst a middle-of-the-road season. The Aggies’ five wins have come against New Mexico, UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas and South Carolina – none of which have winning records and are a combined 13-27.

Their three losses have come against a pair of ranked teams and a 6-2 Miami program. The Aggies have proven capable of beating bad teams, but they haven't been able to beat the best.

One big reason for that is recent quarterback play and the offensive line. Max Johnson, who has replaced the injured Connor Weigman, has had little to no time in the pocket.

The quarterback was sacked three times in the first quarter last week versus South Carolina, and, per PFF, he has faced pressure on 48.6% of his total dropbacks this year. Utah’s Bryson Barnes is the only FBS quarterback to face pressure more often.

The inept offensive line has also impacted the Aggies running game, where they rank just 11th in the SEC in total rushing and 99th nationally in Line Yards.

But while the offense struggles in the trenches, A&M’s defense excels there. The Aggies defense is top four in Havoc, Line Yards and Rush Success Allowed, and they lead the Power Five in sacks (33) and tackles for loss (75).

The Aggies have the SEC’s No. 2 run defense and will force Jaxson Dart to beat them through the air, something not many quarterbacks have done this season. Only Alabama and Miami have passed for more than 176 yards against Texas A&M.

Not only is Ole Miss looking to avoid a similar fate from 2022, but it still has its eyes set on winning the SEC West.

The Rebels and Jaxson Dart have been on cruise control in October with wins over Arkansas, Auburn and Vanderbilt. So, the A&M defense will be the best unit Ole Miss has faced since late September.

During October, Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins finally found his 2022 form following a slow start to the season. The sophomore running back has rushed for over 120 yards in three of his last four games after failing to rush for more than 60 in any of the Rebel's first four games.

How well Judkins can maintain his recent success against the Aggies’ front seven is the biggest question heading into this game. Otherwise, much of the offense will fall on Dart’s shoulders.

Dart, whose 9.9 yards per pass attempt are the third most in the conference, is also an effective rusher and won’t be afraid to pull it down when the pocket collapses. Jayden Daniels is the only quarterback in the SEC with more rushing yards than Dart (326).

The Ole Miss defense has made a remarkable improvement under Pete Golding in his first year in Oxford. Normally one of the worst defenses in the conference, the Rebels have held every opponent other than LSU to below 25 points.

Notably for this game against the poor A&M offensive line will be Ole Miss’ own front seven. The Rebels are fifth in sacks (30) and 12th in tackles for loss (63), so they should have a field day getting to Max Johnson.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Ole Miss match up statistically:

Texas A&M Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	72	47
Line Yards	99	63
Pass Success	59	39
Havoc	52	35
Finishing Drives	72	51
Quality Drives	21	41

Ole Miss Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	55	4
Line Yards	83	1
Pass Success	44	48
Havoc	70	2
Finishing Drives	22	5
Quality Drives	20	27

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	112	31
PFF Coverage	38	39
Special Teams SP+	105	38
Middle 8	15	58
Seconds per Play	27.7 (77)	23.2 (10)
Rush Rate	49.7% (93)	58.1% (43)

This is a game that will be decided in the trenches. Both teams have some of the better front sevens in the country, so whichever offensive line can neutralize their opponent’s effectiveness will win out.

Texas A&M has struggled to do so through this point of the season, and after eight games of proof, you can’t keep hoping a tiger will change its stripes.

Mississippi’s offensive line hasn’t exactly been great either, but at least the Rebels aren’t one-dimensional, and Dart is comfortable moving from the pocket.

The Aggies have lost eight straight true road games, while the Rebels are yet to lose at home this season. Ole Miss’ conference title hopes may meet their demise next week in Athens, but for now, give me the Rebels to avoid another November collapse.