College Football Odds & Pick For Toledo vs. Western Michigan: Bet the Rockets Over the Broncos
David Dennis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Bryant Koback (22).
Toledo vs. Western Michigan Odds
|Toledo Odds||+1.5 [BET NOW]|
|Western Michigan Odds||-1.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-121 / +100 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||57.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET|
MACtion rolls on Wednesday night with a matchup between two of the league’s better teams when Western Michigan hosts Toledo.
Both the coaches and media picked these two teams as the MAC West favorites before the abbreviated season began, and both took care of business in a big way in their openers last week.
The Rockets opened 2020 undressing Bowling Green by 35 and easily covering the spread. Thanks to three turnovers from the Falcons, Toledo had average starting field position at the 39-yard line and achieved a strong 56% of available yards.
Of Toledo’s 52 rushing attempts, 11 went for more than 12 yards. Veteran quarterback Eli Peters added four touchdowns against a helpless Bowling Green secondary.
Peters hits Mitchell for a 42 yard TD!!! 🚀 28 🐥 0 pic.twitter.com/QiQ1AFozny
— Toledo Football (@ToledoFB) November 5, 2020
The Rockets defense also deserves plenty of credit for keeping Bowling Green below a single point per trip inside the 40-yard line.
Regardless of how bad Bowling Green may be, Toledo did not miss any chances with a grade of 15th in tackling and coverage from Pro Football Focus.
Western Michigan Broncos
The Broncos lit up Akron in Week 10, but the Zips did all they could to forfeit the game on their own. The Zips started the game with a failed onside kick and ended with a 19% Success Rate on passing downs.
Western Michigan didn’t allow a single pass over 15 yards, as the Zips consistently struggled with an average third-down distance of 7.1 yards. If there was a noticeable stat missing from the opening game, it’s that Western Michigan had just four players create a quarterback hurry.
Percentage of available yards is a stat that measures just how much an offense is taking advantage of its opponent. The national average for available yards in FBS play is 41% for an entire game.
To put in perspective, the powerhouse offense at Alabama averages 60% of available yards on a weekly basis. Western Michigan achieved 82% of available yards against Akron in Week 10.
Showing off the arm strength 💪💪 @K_Eleby5
— WMU Football 😷 (@WMU_Football) November 5, 2020
There aren’t too many negative takeaways for the Western Michigan offense after Game 1. Akron did have a sack, but first, consider that the Broncos are a run-first team.
Even in the first half, Western Michigan began almost every first down with a rush attempt that contributed to a final rush rate of a 67%. Kaleb Eleby played fantastic at quarterback, too.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When the opposing resume of two teams features only Akron and Bowling Green, it can be a bit tough to get a read on exactly how good or bad that team might be.
What we do know about Toledo and Western Michigan is that both teams like to run the ball and run at a tempo much slower than the rest of FBS.
If there is a discrepancy in each team’s defensive performance, it comes in the area of tackling and coverage. Toledo grades out at 15th in tackling and 15th in coverage, per PFF. Those numbers trump Western Michigan at 101st and 33rd, respectively.
The Broncos had nine defenders record a missed tackle while finishing 47th in rush defense. In contrast, Toledo graded No. 6 in rush defense and had just four defenders miss a tackle.
Toledo has won this game each of the past three years and has dropped only two games in this series in the past decade.
Pay the juice on the hook or play it live with Toledo, which will bring the better defense on Wednesday night.
Pick: Toledo +3 (-120) or better