Auburn vs. Arkansas College Football Odds & Picks: Points, Points and More Points in SEC Matchup

Auburn vs. Arkansas College Football Odds & Picks: Points, Points and More Points in SEC Matchup article feature image
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Auburn vs. Arkansas Odds

Auburn Odds +4.5 (-110)
Arkansas Odds -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline +165 / -195
Over/Under 53.5 (-120 / +100)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV CBS
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

A pair of 4-2 SEC West teams battle in Fayetteville on Saturday as Auburn and Arkansas try to rebound from their losses a week ago.

Auburn was blown out at home last weekend by Georgia 34-10, which isn’t really that surprising of a scoreline given the warpath the Bulldogs are on right now.

With Alabama losing to Texas A&M, the door has now opened for the rest of the division to potentially sneak into the SEC Championship game. However, the Tigers will need to pull off an upset on the road if they want to have any shot at winning the SEC West.

Arkansas lost a heartbreaker in Oxford last weekend, 52-51, to Ole Miss after Sam Pittman decided to go for a two-point conversion and the win, but ended up falling just short. The Razorbacks have now lost back-to-back games and are in desperate need of a win to get things back on track.


Auburn vs. Arkansas Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 16
12 p.m. ET
CBS

Auburn Tigers

Auburn Offense

Despite somewhat struggling offensively with Bo Nix under center, Auburn actually plays a really fast pace offensively (23rd in plays per minute).

Auburn, though, has been most successful when it takes the football out of Nix’s turnover-prone hands and hands it to one of the best running back tandems in football in Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter.

The duo is averaging a whopping 7.04 yards per carry this season. That’s led the Tigers to a ranking of 15th in Rushing Success Rate, 17th in rushing explosiveness and 15th in Offensive Line Yards.

Tank Bigsby gets Auburn within two touchdowns. What a grown man run. pic.twitter.com/jIKCNfi13g

— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) October 9, 2021

They should be able to run right through Arkansas’ front seven that is outside the top 100 in Defensive Line Yards and 80th in tackling, per PFF.

Nix has had a very interesting season. At times, he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the country, at other times, he can’t stop turning the ball over.

Nix has a 72.5 passing grade, with 11 big-time throws and seven turnover-worthy plays. He hasn’t been very efficient, averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt, so Auburn is likely going to have to rely on its rushing attack on Saturday afternoon.


Auburn Defense

Auburn has an incredible front seven, that has been stout against the run.

Against Penn State, LSU and Georgia, the Tigers only allowed 2.94 yards per carry. They also have a top-30 defense in terms of Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

However, this will be the best rushing attack they have seen yet this season and they could potentially be without starting linebacker Owen Pappoe for a fourth straight game on Saturday. 

The biggest problem for Auburn has been its secondary. They sits outside the top 65 in terms of Passing Success Rate Allowed and allow 7.7 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.

If Arkansas is not able to establish the run, it should be able to get the ball to Treylon Burks and throw on Auburn’s secondary. 

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Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas Offense

Arkansas plays at a very average pace by FBS standards, ranking 70th in plays per minute.

The Razorbacks’ rushing offense with Trelon Smith, Raheim Sanders and KJ Jefferson has been incredible this season, averaging 5.51 yards per carry. They ran the ball all over Ole Miss last weekend, putting up 350 yards and 6.0 yards per carry.

KJ Jefferson sacrificed his well-being to get in the end zone and tie the game pic.twitter.com/0oMGMbi2fr

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) October 9, 2021

However, running the ball is going to be difficult on Auburn’s front seven, given the fact that they’re only allowing 3.2 yards per carry and are graded as the 15th best run defense, per PFF.

The good news for Arkansas is Jefferson has been an incredibly efficient passer this season, throwing the ball for 9.8 yards per attempt.

He had his second-best game of the season against Ole Miss last Saturday, putting up a 79.8 passing grade, per PFF.

It also helps when you have one of the best receivers to throw to in Burks, who already has three games over 100 yards.

YOU GOT MOSSED

BACK-TO-BACK GRABS BY TREYLON BURKS 🤯 @RazorbackFB pic.twitter.com/4FlR80d3VS

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 9, 2021


Arkansas Defense

Rushing the ball is exactly how teams beat the Arkansas defense, which Ole Miss showed last weekend by rushing for 324 yards on 49 carries.

What was even crazier about that game is Matt Corral attempted only 21 passes and the Rebels still put up 52 points on the board.

Arkansas ranks 75th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 61st in rushing explosiveness allowed and 79th in terms of a rush defense grade, per PFF. They’re going to have a lot of problems trying to stop Auburn’s rushing attack.

Arkansas’ secondary has been a bit of mixed bag this season. They’re 11th in terms of Passing Success Rate Allowed, but they’re giving up way too many explosive plays.

The Razorbacks rank 63rd in explosive passing allowed and are graded as the 90th best secondary in terms of coverage, per PFF.

Arkansas could be in store for another shootout on Saturday.


Auburn vs. Arkansas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Arkansas match up statistically:

Auburn Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 15 76
Line Yards 15 47
Pass Success 65 22
Pass Blocking** 52 56
Big Play 53 5
Havoc 5 68
Finishing Drives 50 72
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arkansas Offense vs. Auburn Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 10 25
Line Yards 26 9
Pass Success 54 101
Pass Blocking** 74 13
Big Play 59 13
Havoc 82 32
Finishing Drives 104 92
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 39 80
Coverage 11 90
Middle 8 59 69
SP+ Special Teams 17 81
Plays per Minute 23 70
Rush Rate 48.2% (107) 67.1% (7)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


I think both rushing attacks should be able to be effective against the opposing front seven and with Auburn playing at such a fast pace, this game could turn into a track meet really quickly,

Both passing offenses should be able to move the ball on each of the opposing secondaries as well, especially given that Arkansas ranks 90th in terms of coverage and Auburn is giving up over 7.7 yards per attempt.

I think we are in store for a bit more points than expected in Fayetteville on Saturday.


Auburn vs. Arkansas Betting Pick

The total for this game opened at 52.5 but has steadily been bet up to 54 at some books. It’s also supposed to be a beautiful day in Fayetteville on Saturday with a high of 65 and winds around 10 mph.

I have 67.92 points projected for this game, so I think there’s some value on over 53.5 points, which is available at FanDuel. I would play it up to 60.

Pick: Over 53.5

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