College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Colorado State vs. Wyoming: Cowboys Undervalued in Border War? (Nov. 6)
Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Chambers (left) and Rudy Stofer (right).
- Wyoming clashes against Colorado State in the Border War at Jonah Field.
- The Cowboys have dropped four games in a row, while the Rams have lost two straight.
- Kyle Remillard previews the rivalry duel and offers up his best bet.
Colorado State vs. Wyoming Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 40 -115o / -105u | -165 |
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 40 -115o / -105u | +145 |
The Colorado State Rams travel to Laramie for another edition of the Border War against the Wyoming Cowboys.
Colorado State is 3-5 on the season after suffering back-to-back close losses to Utah State and Boise State. Last week, the Rams led Boise, 16-7, at halftime before being outscored, 21-3, in the second half.
Wyoming opened the season undefeated, winning all four games in its non-conference schedule. But since entering Mountain West play, the Cowboys have dropped all four of their matchups.
They now sit at 4-4 and look to finally pick up their first conference victory with hopes of qualifying for a bowl game.
The Rams won last year's rivalry matchup, which snapped a four-year winning streak for the Cowboys. Will they repeat as champions, or will Wyoming reign supreme once again?
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State Offense
Despite ranking 14th in the nation in Plays per Minute, the Colorado State offense has only averaged 24 points per game.
Steve Addazio’s offense runs the ball 58% of the time, yet owns a 114th ranking in Rushing Success Rate. The team averages 3.7 yards per carry behind workhorse running back David Bailey and quarterback Todd Centeio.
Centeio has been efficient as a passer this season, averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt while throwing eight touchdowns to two interceptions.
Much of that success can be attributed to his favorite target, tight end Trey McBride, who is averaging eight catches for 93 yards per game.
Colorado State Defense
The defense has been the backbone to this program this season and ranks among the top groups in the Mountain West.
The Rams are thriving at bringing pressure and getting after the quarterback, as they've totaled 32 sacks and 60 tackles for loss through eight games. Cam’Ron Carter, Scott Patchan and Mohamed Kamara have all accounted for six sacks or more this season.
The unit ranks ninth in Rushing Success Rate and third against the pass. Against FBS opponents, the run defense ranks second in the nation, allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. However, much of those numbers can be a product of their strength of schedule (105th) to this point, according to PFF.
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming Offense
Head coach Craig Bohl finally made the move to pull starting quarterback Sean Chambers after a month-long drought of inconsistent play.
Chambers has thrown for six touchdowns to seven interceptions while completing just 50% of his passes.
Levi Williams was named the starter last week and averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt with two touchdowns. Williams saw playing time last year, as he started the final five games of the season in place of the injured Chambers.
He will be missing one of his top receiving threats in senior Ayden Eberhardt, who went down with a knee injury last game.
The Wyoming offense is centralized around the running game, which sits at 41st in Success Rate. The unit owns a Rushing Rate of 61% (27th in the nation).
They will need to find success on the ground behind the legs of running back Xazavian Valladay, who is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Wyoming Defense
The Cowboys' defense is the strength of the team, as the unit is allowing 21.9 points per game (tied for 89th in the country).
Beyond giving up 43 points to Northern Illinois in the second game of the season, the most Wyoming has let up was 27 to San Jose State last week.
Colorado State vs. Wyoming Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Wyoming match up statistically:
Colorado State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 108 | 73 | |
| Big Play | 118 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 23 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Wyoming Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 3 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 40 | 9 | |
| Big Play | 123 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 64 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 40 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 11 | 91 |
| Coverage | 36 | 5 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | — |
| SP+ Special Teams | 43 | 120 |
| Plays per Minute | 14 | 84 |
| Rush Rate | 57.7% (45) | 60.5% (27) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Colorado State vs. Wyoming Betting Pick
I’m a big fan of buying low and selling high. Wyoming is at rock bottom right now and it is being undervalued as a four-point underdog.
The Cowboys are just 1-7 against the spread this season and have consistently underproduced, but the Border War is a perfect opportunity for them to straighten out the ship.
This is a must-win game if they want to make it to bowl season, so there is value in this four-point underdog. It’s expected to be a lower-scoring game that will be highlighted by both defenses.
According to SP+ power rankings, there is very little that separates these two teams. Colorado State owns the 104th-ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense. Wyoming sits at 105th in offensive ranking and 23rd in defense.
Sharp money has continued to pour in on the Cowboys, and that's the direction I'm going as well.
Pick: Wyoming +3.5 (Play to +3)
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