Houston vs Baylor Odds, Picks & Prediction: Betting Value on Cougars

There may not be a better team to buy low on than the Houston Cougars as they head to Waco, Texas, to take on the Baylor Bears.

Houston comes into this matchup off a brutal 41-0 loss to Kansas State.

However, the Cougars' opposition — the Baylor Bears — also come into this one off a rough performance. Baylor was outgained by a lowly Iowa State offense, and it could only muster 18 points itself.

So, with both teams offering little inspiration, which side should you back? Let's take a closer look to find out.

The Cougars may be 1-4 in Big 12 play, but their offensive scheme is one that has consistently put them in a spot to compete, well, except for last week.

Houston keeps the ball in the hands of its best playmaker, quarterback Donovan Smith.

Smith has looked very polished in the pocked this season, as he comes in 34th in the nation in completion percentage and holds a sparkling 16-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

He will be in a prime spot to improve on those numbers, as the Baylor defense has been very susceptible through the air. The Bears are 99th in opponent completion percentage allowed and 102nd in yards per pass allowed.

However, this could be the game we see running back Parker Jenkins get going. Baylor has been bullied in the trenches, as it's 108th in Defensive Line Yards and 118th in yards per rush allowed.

On paper, everything points to a tremendous offensive bounce back for the Cougars.

This Baylor team has taken a big step back this season, and while we already went over its struggles on the defensive side of the ball, the offense hasn't given us much to write home about either.

In years past, we've seen the Bears run the ball down the opposition's throat to obtain consistent success. However, this season, the offensive line has struggled mightily, as it's 106th in Offensive Line Yards. The line's poor play has led to the Bears averaging just a meager 2.8 yards per carry.

A positive is that Baylor has identified that it has no run game and has kept the ball in the hands of quarterback Blake Shapen. The Bears have dropped back to pass at the 11th-highest rate in the nation, but the issue is that Shapen is not the guy we thought he was years ago during Baylor's conference championship run.

The junior is 101st in QBR and 95th in completion percentage nationally. So, while he has a great matchup in front of him against the Houston secondary, it remains to be seen if he can take advantage of it.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Baylor match up statistically:

Houston Offense vs. Baylor Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	97	102
Line Yards	93	108
Pass Success	68	102
Havoc	40	82
Finishing Drives	107	96
Quality Drives	92	106

Baylor Offense vs. Houston Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	117	92
Line Yards	106	86
Pass Success	113	119
Havoc	97	86
Finishing Drives	124	126
Quality Drives	64	108

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	97	115
PFF Coverage	114	101
Special Teams SP+	97	66
Middle 8	41	91
Seconds per Play	25.4 (43)	26.2 (57)
Rush Rate	44.8% (123)	46.4% (114)

This game has the potential to be ugly, as both defenses have more than their fair share of holes.

However, neither offense has proven to be the juggernaut that could capitalize in a significant way.

Despite that, it's clear which side is much more probable to have success offensively, and that side is Houston.

Smith will be the best offensive weapon on the field, and we get to back him as a short underdog here.