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Navy vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Midshipmen (Nov. 5)

Navy vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Midshipmen (Nov. 5) article feature image
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Photo by Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Navy Midshipmen

Navy vs Cincinnati Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
4 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Navy Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+18.5
-110
43.5
-110o / -110u
+725
Cincinnati Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-18.5
-110
43.5
-110o / -110u
-1255
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Cincinnati Bearcats got bounced from the top 25 after their loss to UCF last week. However, they are poised to get right back in the win column against the Navy Midshipmen.

Making a statement against this Navy team may be easier said than done, though.

Navy got back in the win column last week, as it took care of Temple in overtime. While the Midshipmen won, they also suffered a significant loss, as starting quarterback Tai Lavatai was injured and is now out for the season.

The good part is that there is not a dramatic drop-off in the triple-option offense.

As for the Bearcats, they’ve already had their issues with backup quarterbacks, as UCF’s backup came in last week and torched them.

Fortunately for Cincinnati, its secondary won’t be tested much here, but it has a whole different dynamic to prepare for.

So, can the Bearcats take care of business? Or will the Midshipmen shock us once again?


Navy Midshipmen

When it comes to the Navy offense, you know, I know, and the Cincinnati defense knows what’s coming.

The Midshipmen have the third-highest Rush Rate in the country with their triple option. However, we may even see more rushing attempts, as the newly-anointed starter Xavier Arline has only attempted 34 passes in his career.

However, of all the teams in the AAC to be matched up with Navy, Cincy may be most well-equipped to combat the triple option.

The Bearcats’ defense line is the strength of their team, as they are 15th in yards per rush allowed and 35th in Defensive Line Yards. The boys up front should be able to stifle the majority of attempts.

However, we know that with these services academies, this game will become a war of attrition. Judging by how the Cincy defense fell apart down the stretch last week, something tells me the backdoor may be open for the Midshipmen.


Cincinnati Bearcats

In a year where the offense got a complete overhaul — it lost a ton of talent to the NFL — Cincinnati doesn’t seem to have dropped off much.

Cincy has deployed a balanced attack behind quarterback Ben Bryant, and he’s been solid thus far. Bryant should be able to feast on this Navy secondary, as it has been one of the worst in the country.

The Midshipmen enter 120th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, which stems directly from their rank of 102nd in opponent completion percentage and their spot of 127th in yards per pass.

While it will be best for Cincy to be explosive through the air, the ground game has been solid, as well. Charles McClelland is averaging 6.5 yards per carry on the year. However, he was stifled last week by UCF and may be again, as Navy is third in Defensive Line Yards.

The overarching factor for the Bearcats in this ball-game is the time of possession.

Navy will have very long methodical drives if its offense is able to have success, so look for Cincy to try and lean more towards the passing attack in an attempt to give itself more scoring opportunities if its defense can’t get off the field.

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Navy v.s Cincinnati Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Cincinnati match up statistically:

Navy Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 79 22
Line Yards 118 35
Pass Success 129 22
Pass Blocking** 131 4
Havoc 78 26
Finishing Drives 103 71
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Cincinnati Offense vs. Navy Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 104 23
Line Yards 37 3
Pass Success 59 120
Pass Blocking** 84 97
Havoc 56 15
Finishing Drives 79 57
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 118 22
PFF Coverage 125 76
SP+ Special Teams 77 33
Seconds per Play 28.4 (104) 25.7 (51)
Rush Rate 82.7% (3) 48.4% (98)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football F,focus, and SportSource Analytics.

Navy vs Cincinnati Betting Pick

As it has been all year with the Navy, this is a big contrast in styles.

However, the Midshipmen will be facing the best defense in their conference. That side of the ball explains the big total movement, as it has dropped nearly four points since opening.

Although, what has not dropped at the same rate is the spread. Low totals often lend themselves to underdogs, and that couldn’t be more apparent in this spot.

Navy will control the ball and limit Cincy’s ability to score, and if Navy can get on the board itself, it will be very hard for the Bearcats to pull away. So, back the Midshipmen.

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