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LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds, Picks, Predictions | Why to Target Total

LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds, Picks, Predictions | Why to Target Total article feature image
Credit:

Stephen Lew, John Kordruner & Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured from left: LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) and Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2).

LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds

Saturday, Oct. 22
3:30 p.m. ET
CBS
LSU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
-110
64.5
-110o / -110u
+100
Ole Miss Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
-110
64.5
-110o / -110u
-120
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Ole Miss looks to stay undefeated and atop the SEC West standings when it travels to Baton Rouge to take on LSU on Saturday afternoon.

The Lane Train is rolling to begin the season with Ole Miss ranked seventh in the latest AP Poll. The Rebels haven’t played an overly difficult schedule, as a home date with Kentucky has been their most challenging game so far this season.

This is also their first difficult road test of the season with their other two road games coming at Georgia Tech and at Vanderbilt.

LSU has seemingly turned things around, going into Gainesville last weekend and coming out with a 45-35 win. Brian Kelly now has his team at 4-2 with the only two blemishes coming against Florida State and Tennessee.

This is a perfect spot in front of one of the best crowds in college football to pick up a statement win.


LSU Tigers

Tigers Offense

With Daniels leading the way, LSU has been a mixed bag on the offensive side this season. Daniels averages just 7.1 yards per attempt and owns a 71.5 PFF passing grade with only four big-time throws.

That has the Tigers ranked 75th in EPA/Pass, but the focus of LSU’s offense hasn’t been the passing game.

The Tigers possess a dynamic rushing attack with four different running backs averaging over 4.5 yards per carry.

However, Daniels has rushed the ball 90 times, which is 40 more attempts than anyone else on the team. With a PFF rushing grade of 83, he’s gaining 4.5 yards per carry while averaging 4.3 yards after contact per attempt. But it’s not going to be easy to run the ball against Ole Miss’ front seven.

Tigers Defense

LSU has been pretty stout against the run even if it doesn’t show up in its current metrics. It ranks 15th nationally in PFF’s run defense grade, and that’s because it has played a really difficult schedule up to this point.

Even with that difficult schedule, LSU sits top-45 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Power Success Rate Allowed.

The Tigers’ secondary has also been impressive, ranking 19th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 22nd in EPA/Pass Allowed. The reason this unit owns a coverage ranking of 82nd is that it has allowed one too many explosive plays in the passing game. However, Jaxson Dart has just a 74.2 PFF passing grade on throws over 10 yards in the air, so he may not expose that weakness.

The biggest thing about the LSU defense is that it holds opposing teams out of the end zone once they cross the 40-yard line. Opponents have entered LSU territory 36 times this season and are averaging only 3.2 points per opportunity, which ranks 19th in the country.

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Ole Miss Rebels

Rebels Offense

Jaxson Dart is a really interesting quarterback because if you take away the games against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech, he’s actually been really average.

Image via PFF.

That has caused the Ole Miss passing attack to rank just 46th in EPA/Pass. That’s bad news considering the strength of LSU’s defense comes in its secondary.

Lane Kiffin, though, has been relying on his run game more than ever. The Rebels run the ball on 65.5% of their offensive plays, and for good reason. They’re gaining 5.7 yards per carry, rank ninth in Rushing Success Rate and eighth in rushing explosiveness.

The thing is, they’re running the ball this effectively with a pretty average offensive line. Ole Miss owns a run-blocking grade of 62.3, per PFF, which ranks 56th in the country.

That’s a scary thought when facing a very talented LSU defensive line.

Rebels Defense

Ole Miss’ defense is having an outstanding year, and a lot of it has to do with how good it’s been up front. The Rebels’ front seven is allowing only 3.9 yards per carry and ranks top-45 in EPA/Rush Allowed and rushing explosiveness allowed.

Not only have they been able to stop the run, but they’ve also put pressure on the quarterback as well. Ole Miss ranks 19th in sack percentage and has the 15th-best pass-rushing grade in the country, while LSU’s offensive line comes in at 65th in pass blocking.

The Ole Miss secondary has also done a fantastic job of limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 6.6 yards per attempt. The Rebels also enter this game ranked 27th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 31st in EPA/Pass Allowed while owning the 17th-best coverage grade in the country.

So, they should be able to shut down Jayden Daniels and the LSU passing attack.


LSU vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and LSU match up statistically:

Ole Miss Offense vs. LSU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 9 62
Line Yards 13 45
Pass Success 36 19
Pass Blocking** 65 19
Havoc 71 94
Finishing Drives 33 21
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

LSU Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 24 44
Line Yards 8 40
Pass Success 33 27
Pass Blocking** 79 15
Havoc 64 29
Finishing Drives 41 17
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 60 87
PFF Coverage 17 82
SP+ Special Teams 11 106
Seconds per Play 20.4 (3) 25.7 (45)
Rush Rate 64.2% (9) 51.2% (79)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

LSU vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick

Even though these two teams like to play fast, we have two rush-heavy attacks and the clock will keep moving. We also have two defenses that are in the top 25 in terms of Finishing Drives Allowed.

I think the total of 66.5 is a little too high, as I have 57.6 points projected for this game. I like the value on under 67 points.

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