Saturday NCAAF Odds, Picks | Collin Wilson’s Week 11 Betting Card (Nov. 11)

Welcome to this loaded Week 11 college football slate. We have a number of games with both conference championship and College Football Playoff implications.

First, Jim Harbaugh's No. 3 Michigan Wolverines look to refocus on the field amid a sign-stealing scandal when they take on a divisional foe in the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions in a game with plenty of Big Ten storylines.

Then, the No. 5 Washington Huskies look to keep their undefeated season alive when they take on the No. 18 Utah Utes in Seattle.

A few hours later, Lane Kiffin and the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels meet Kirby Smart and the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs in an SEC showdown between the hedges.

Then, to close it all out, Bo Nix will attempt to rise on Heisman boards across the country when his No. 6 Oregon Ducks take on defending Heisman winner Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans in a battle between two of the best quarterbacks in college football.

Let's not waste any more time. It's time to dive into this incredible Week 11 slate with my top picks for Saturday's biggest games.

Collin Wilson's Week 11 NCAAF Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

The college football world has been rocked by a low-level staffer within the Michigan program, Connor Stalions. Accusations of stealing signs from opponents are just the tip of the iceberg, with evidence pointing to a web of activity of scouting teams outside the Big Ten Conference.

While video continues to surface of Stalions on the Michigan sidelines with laminated sheets of hand signals from the other team, the latest news suggests teams were not only aware but looking to do the same to the Wolverines' sidelines.

While the drama unfolds for the national media, one question should be answered: Will the absence of stolen signs have a negative impact on Michigan football?

The Wolverines own a top-five cover rate since the 2021 season, but their failure to cover against Purdue in Week 10 may suggest a decline in the margin of victory for future games.

While the crows of the Big Ten are circling for a possible suspension of head coach Jim Harbaugh, Michigan's conference and national title goals are still within reach.

Head coach James Franklin looked to dodge questions about the scandal in his weekly press conference but insisted changes to Penn State's signals happened during the bye week.

The Nittany Lions are in a solid position to make waves at the national level despite their loss to Ohio State. With Big Ten divisional tiebreaker rules in place, Penn State holds an advantage over both its major division foes.

A win here by the Nittany Lions and a loss by the Buckeyes in Week 13 will push Penn State to Indianapolis with a chance to make the College Football Playoff.

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Michigan failed to cover in Week 10 against a Purdue team without a path to the postseason.

The Boilermakers exceeded the national average in Stuff Rate, as they averaged 4.7 yards per carry with only eight of their 28 rushing attempts getting stuffed.

Purdue struggled to generate scoring opportunities, with the only touchdown coming in the fourth quarter, but success in running the ball puts the microscope on Michigan's front seven defensively. The Wolverines rank top-five in nearly every statistical category on defense, led by a trio of linebackers that lead the team in tackles.

The 2-4-5 and 3-4 hybrid of defensive coordinator Jesse Minter ranks top-five in Defensive Havoc thanks to 44 passes defensed and 57 tackles for loss.

Michigan plays one of the highest amounts of zone coverage, dominating opponents with the use of Cover 3 and a small rate of quarters.

That dominance carries over to the offense, led by Heisman contender JJ McCarthy. The third-year quarterback is having his best season from a big-time throw vs. turnover-worthy play perspective.

Michigan ranks seventh in On-Target Rate, a statistic that captures the accuracy of the throw and the ease with which the target moves in stride.

If there was an area that needed massive improvement, it came when opposing teams got through the line of scrimmage. McCarthy generated just a single big-time throw in 93 dropbacks under pressure last year. Fast forward to this season, and the junior has eight big-time throws with a 10% increase in adjusted completion percentage with a crowded pocket.

There's not a single coverage package that has limited McCarthy, who has blasted Cover 1 and Cover 3 throughout the season.

The Penn State offense has turned to explosives after its loss to Ohio State in Week 8.

Quarterback Drew Allar attempted just four passes beyond 20 yards in the loss to the Buckeyes, leaving plenty of questions for Franklin surrounding the lack of explosives.

Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich said the efficiency wasn't there to attempt downfield passes, pinpointing soft coverages as the reason for the short passing game.

Through the Ohio State game, Allar had attempted just 15 passes beyond 20 yards but has since posted a total of 12 in the past two games against Maryland and Indiana.

Allar has regained his confidence thanks to four touchdown passes against Maryland, giving a heavy target share to KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Tyler Warren and transfer Dante Cephas.

Penn State remains in the bottom 10 nationally in Rush and Pass Expected Points, as the offense will play a critical role if it's going to beat Michigan.

The Penn State defense continues to be the best in the nation, ranking in the upper echelon in nearly every category, including Success Rate and explosives.

The Nittany Lions allow less than a point per opponent possession and produce a three-and-out on 30% of possessions.

Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has been critical to the success of the defense, calling 3-4 and 3-3-5 personnel with a heavy 53% blitz that creates pressure on 64% of attempts.

The elephant in the room may not be Stalions and the sign-stealing scandal but instead the lack of quality opponents on Michigan's schedule thus far.

The Wolverines enter the game with a strength of schedule rank of 111th, drawing the toughest remaining schedule in the nation with Penn State and Ohio State still on the docket.

There are only a few conclusions that could be considered concrete when handicapping Michigan football.

The Wolverines rank 125th in rush explosives, generating only 11 runs of at least 20 yards. This aspect has created a rank outside the top 100 in standard downs explosives, so Diaz's heavy blitz scheme should produce tackles for loss on the Penn State side.

Michigan also has the fourth-lowest rate of plays in passing downs this season, a contributing factor to short distances and a high rate of conversions on third downs.

While McCarthy has been fantastic against Cover 1 and Cover 3, this Penn State defense is expected to run Cover 2.

The biggest handicap in the game is if Penn State can find traction on offense.

Michigan's heaviest coverage packages are Cover 3 and quarters, the two most-seen coverages for Allar so far this season. Allar has been above average in terms of Success Rate against both looks but has provided explosives against quarters coverage with an average 0.28 Expected Points per Play. Penn State will be able to move the ball through the air.

Considering coverages and dual top-20 ranks in Quality Drives, the Nittany Lions' renewed appetite for explosives could generate scoring opportunities.

Both Michigan and Penn State have been excellent in the red zone this season, specifically in avoiding field goals and scoring touchdowns. The Wolverines and Nittany Lions rank inside the top 10 in red-zone touchdown rate, as both teams have combined for 72 touchdowns in 92 red-zone attempts.

The Action Network projection aligns with the spread at Michigan -5, but there's meat on the bone with a total projection above the key of 48.

Look for Penn State to find success creating a few explosives downfield.

On the Michigan side, no quarterback has improved their efficiency and big-time throw rate in a pressured pocket more than McCarthy. Keep in mind the key numbers in college football totals and get the best of the points going over.

Pick: Over 46 or Better

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The last Pac-12 team to make the College Football Playoff was Washington a mere seven seasons ago.

Gone are head coach Chris Petersen and quarterback Jake Browning, as current head coach Kalen DeBoer looks to remain undefeated with current Heisman favorite Michael Penix Jr. leading his offense.

The Huskies remain undefeated after a trip to the LA Coliseum and a 10-point victory over USC. The remaining schedule is one of the toughest in the nation for a team competing for a national title. Washington will look to stave off Oregon State and Washington State, along with its Week 11 matchup with Utah.

There may not be a better coaching job in all of FBS football than what has occurred in Salt Lake City.

Kyle Whittingham has been the head coach of Utah since 2005, trailing only Iowa's Kirk Ferentz for the longest tenure. The two-time defending conference champions have an injury report as long as a CVS receipt, including quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe.

As Utah struggles with another injury in the offensive backfield, Whittingham has relied on defensive players and a pig farmer to generate points.

It has been a masterful coaching job that's sure to propel Whittingham to the front of the line for Coach of the Year.

Utah desperately needed a get-healthy game following a Week 9 rout at the hands Oregon. The loss in Rice-Eccles Stadium saw the Utes fail to score a touchdown, a surprise after previous home victories over top-25 teams in USC and UCLA.

The offense has been assisted by one of the most unlikely players in quarterback Bryson Barnes.

Barnes has dominated the defenses of Arizona State and USC, tallying seven touchdowns to a single interception. The offense that runs a heavy amount of 11 and 12 personnel ranks 17th nationally in Quality Drives, a statistic that measures drives with 10 plays, lasts longer than three minutes or covers 50 yards.

However, the offense has struggled in scoring position, falling to 118th in Finishing Drives.

While the offense continues to gain yards and come up short in points, the defense has continued to drive the team.

Defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley runs a 3-3-5 scheme that ranks top-10 in Defensive Havoc, generating eight forced fumbles while recording 57 tackles for loss.

The Utes meet the national average in blitz rate at 32% with moderate success, using a heavy amount of Cover 1 and Cover 3 against opponents passing attempts. This is the top team in the nation in Defensive Success Rate during passing downs, consistently knocking teams off schedule.

Utah is second-best in the nation defensively in opponent distance on third downs, generating an average of 9.2 yards to go.

This juggernaut of a Huskies team took a detour during Pac-12 Conference play. Washington was denied a touchdown at home against Arizona State, following that performance up with heavy defensive issues against Stanford.

There may not be a better remedy for a college football team to get off the struggle bus than facing USC, as the Huskies scored 52 points in a victory at the Coliseum.

Washington scored a touchdown on seven of its 10 possessions, throwing in an additional field goal, punt and interception.

Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. stepped out of the spotlight, allowing running back Dillon Johnson to gain over 250 yards with four rushing touchdowns.

Defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell's 2-4-5 defense generated enough stops against USC and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams.

Washington continues to struggle to stop teams on the ground, ranking 129th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and near dead last in Line Yards. Teams that opt to pass have had far less success, as Washington ranks 16th in limiting pass explosives.

The Huskies rank top-20 in coverage but have struggled to maintain a national average Success Rate in any package other than quarters.

The Washington offense is back on track after a trip to Southern California. Penix completed 22-of-30 passes without a single turnover-worthy play, allowing the rushing attack to take center stage.

The Huskies offense nearly doubled the national average in available yards against the Trojans, averaging 7.9 yards per play on the ground and a whopping 58% Success Rate in 19 passing downs.

While every team has had offensive success against USC, this was a game the Huskies desperately needed to get on track and complete an undefeated regular season.

On the other side, Whittingham is sure to be a front-runner for Coach of the Year, but the Utes fell flat at home against Oregon in Week 9. The results have been mixed on the road for Utah with one-possession victories over USC and Baylor while struggling to get any offense against Oregon State in Week 5.

Injuries may catch up to Utah this weekend, primarily with workhorse running back Ja'Quinden Jackson. The place to attack the Washington defense has been on the ground, but Utah may have to rely on freshman running back Dijon Stanley.

For those wanting to see Sione Vaki's return to the backfield, Whittingham said his offensive workload would be just 30% of snaps.

While the Utah head coach did mention more tempo in his weekly press conference, issues persist in scoring opportunities for the Utah offense. In 54 offensive drives extending past the opponent's 40-yard line, the Utes average just 3.1 points per trip.

Utah ranks 111th in red-zone touchdown efficiency, an issue that will come to light against a Washington team looking to make Week 11 an offensive shootout.

Pick: Washington -9.5 or Better

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When the calendar turns to November, college football consumers start to clamor for chaos.

The 2007 season saw an abundance of head-scratching events, from a two-loss national champion in LSU to Appalachian State winning in Michigan's Big House.

If there's going to be chaos in the current College Football Playoff rankings, it starts with Ole Miss and Georgia. With a single loss to Alabama, the Rebels are on their last legs from a national title standpoint.

The Crimson Tide own the West Division, solidifying their position with a win over LSU. Not only does Alabama need to lose its final two conference games, but the Rebels must go into the lion's den of Athens and defeat the two-time defending champ.

Georgia survived its stiffest test of the season in Sanford Stadium last week, beating Missouri by nine. The Tigers stuffed nearly half of the Bulldogs' rushing attempts, generating an overall yards per play equal to that of Georgia.

For Georgia, November is about surviving and advancing, as head coach Kirby Smart's team has one of the toughest paths to an undefeated season.

The Ole Miss offense has started to hit a stride amid a five-game winning streak, scoring at least 27 points against SEC teams each week during that stretch.

Head coach Lane Kiffin looks to establish the rush with quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins, who's now fully recovered from an early-season injury.

Dart has attempted 33 designed runs this year, utilizing inside zone and power concepts. Judkins has become a missed tackle machine, creating 46 on the season with half coming in the past three games.

The season-long numbers sagged through the first half of the season as Judkins recovered from his injury, but Dart has picked up the slack in recording the best passing season of his career.

The USC transfer has cut his turnover-worthy play rate nearly in half while obliterating quarters coverage at a 57% Success Rate with plenty of explosives.

The bigger questions are on the defensive side of the ball.

Ole Miss stuffed just six of Texas A&M's 35 rushing attempts in Week 10. The Aggies are 92nd in Offensive Line Yards, bringing in plenty of concerns surrounding the Rebels' front seven. Ole Miss ranks 77th in Defensive Line Yards with the biggest issues coming against opponent run concepts that utilize outside zone.

The numbers continue to drop the closer opponents get to scoring position. Ole Miss ranks 66th in Defensive Finishing Drives and 92nd in opponent red-zone touchdown efficiency.

The Bulldogs are marching toward a third consecutive national title, but questions remain about the strength of the team over previous versions.

Offensively, the loss of tight end Brock Bowers gave offensive coordinator Mike Bobo the green light to throw downfield at a higher rate.

Quarterback Carson Beck is quietly moving up the Heisman odds board, compiling a 9:2 touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past four games. The junior sits eighth in total passing yards with a turnover-worthy play rate similar to Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and North Carolina's Drake Maye.

Georgia has one of the most potent offenses in the nation, run or pass. But the defense enters Week 11 with questions.

The Bulldogs rank 45th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, allowing mobile quarterbacks to gash the front seven. Similar to the Ole Miss defense, offenses that run outside zone have had success against Georgia's run defense.

Another worrying aspect is the lack of stops when opponents are in scoring position. The Bulldogs have fallen to 70th in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing an average of 3.7 points on 36 opponent drives that crossed the 40-yard line.

Georgia's defense has the fourth-highest rate of success on first downs, but that rank falls to 56th against the rush on second down.

The numbers against explosives have fallen compared to past Bulldog teams, barely slipping into the top 50 in limiting expected points against the run and in passing downs.

Ole Miss can attack the Georgia defense both on the ground and through the air. Missouri was successful in generating 5.5 yards per play in rushing attempts against the Bulldogs, so Judkins and Dart are expected to attack in a similar fashion.

Specifically, Judkins thrives when running around a blocking tight end on the right side. Georgia has a low 44% Success Rate on outside zone rush attempts, an area Ole Miss will look to expose with Judkins.

Another concern for Georgia is its ability to stop Dart in known passing downs. The Bulldogs have one of the highest coverage grades, per PFF, but an average Success Rate when running quarters coverage.

Dart's domination of quarters coverage is expected to benefit Ole Miss in getting into scoring position, where the Georgia defense has struggled to keep points off the board.

If Dart can replicate the RPO quarterback keeper that Missouri and Auburn showed, Ole Miss could gash the Bulldogs on the ground with explosives.

The Rebels can also be lethal in the passing game with a bevy of explosive targets in Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade, but taking advantage of Georgia's rush defense will be the most productive route.

The question for the Georgia offense is its ability to deal with Rebels defensive coordinator Pete Golding's blitz. Ole Miss sends blitz on 33% of defensive snaps, resulting in a high 57% Success Rate in creating pressure.

The good news for Georgia is its rank of third in pressure allowed. Opponents have crowded Beck in 35 passing attempts this season, lowering his adjusted completion percentage by 16% but drawing only a single turnover-worthy play.

There's a reason to believe Beck will have a clean pocket most of the evening, as Texas A&M allowed only a single sack and just three tackles for loss against the Rebels defense last week.

Action Network expects Ole Miss to keep this closer than the market, projecting Georgia at -8.5 with a total into the 60s.

Each offense should create plenty of scoring opportunities. Georgia will give Beck enough protection from a sinking Ole Miss pass rush, while the Rebels will use Dart and Judkins to take advantage of a substandard rush defense against outside zone.

Pick: Ole Miss +10.5 · Over 58 or Better

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The Pac-12 Conference is in the home stretch with two College Football Playoff contenders.

The nation's Power 5 membership on the West Coast is known for crowning a conference champion with two losses, thus negating any chances of competing for a national title.

For the first time since 2016, Oregon and Washington are in the driver's seat to reach one of the national semifinal games in the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is in his second season in Eugene, entering Week 11 with a single loss and a 7-1-1 record against the spread. The Ducks have dominated in recent games, beating Utah and Cal by a combined 63 points.

To the surprise of many preseason polls, USC is out of the race for the national title. The Trojans suffered a loss at home to Washington in Week 10, all but pushing a trip to Las Vegas to compete for the conference title out of reach.

With a loss to Utah in the standings, USC would need a bevy of low-probability events to happen to compete for the Pac-12.

The biggest handicap in this game comes from a motivation perspective for head coach Lincoln Riley.

Action Network's own Brett McMurphy projects the Trojans to compete in the Holiday Bowl, a disappointing outcome for a team full of blue-chip players who had hopes of hoisting the National Championship trophy in Houston.

The firing of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch leads the news in Southern California. The embattled DC was a success in his first coordinator position at Washington State, finishing with surprising top-25 ranks in Havoc.

After a season as an assistant at Ohio State, Grinch moved on to Riley's staff at Oklahoma. The Sooners saw improvement in 2019 after a disastrous defensive effort in a Rose Bowl in which Georgia scored more than 50 points.

Grinch left for USC with Riley but failed to provide any resistance against the high-powered offenses of the Pac-12.

Interim co-defensive coordinators Brian Odom and Shaun Nua have been tapped to lead a unit that ranks outside the top 100 in allowing explosives, Quality Drives and penalties.

The tandem is not expected to change any schematics from a 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 personnel that consistently plays Cover 1, Cover 3 and quarters.

Nua and Odom have both mentioned that their primary objective heading to Autzen Stadium is to create awareness and generate a spark with the starters.

Caleb Williams was the most-talked-about quarterback in the nation after the loss to Washington, having an emotional moment with his mother postgame.

After a small decline in production against Arizona and Notre Dame, Williams has carried the USC offense on his back the past three games. The reigning Heisman winner has posted an 11:3 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio in games against Utah, Cal and Washington.

This is the highest-ranked offense in standard downs explosives, but the back end of November and a projected non-New Years Six bowl for USC are sure to be on Williams' mind through the toughest portion of the schedule.

Is there a better one-loss team in the nation than Oregon? The College Football Playoff selection committee continues to make a strong case for the Ducks.

With Michigan and Ohio State scheduled to play in Week 13, the path is clear for Oregon to sweep the remainder of its schedule and attend a semifinal game in the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl.

The Ducks have had two close calls all season, an early eight-point win at Texas Tech and a field goal loss at Washington, preceded by failed fourth-down attempts.

Oregon is the hottest team in the country, led by Heisman contender Bo Nix.

The statistics are piling up for the quarterback, who leads the nation in adjusted completion percentage. No player in college football with at least 300 dropbacks has a lower turnover-worthy play rate than the Oregon quarterback, according to PFF.

There was a change in philosophy from a season ago when Nix dealt with a high ankle sprain in November. Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein modified the number of times Nix would leave the pocket, with 41 designed runs in 2022 versus just seven this season.

While Oregon is an offensive juggernaut in all phases, Lanning was brought to Oregon to replicate the defenses he called as defensive coordinator at Georgia.

The multiple nickel package veers between two- and three-man fronts, sending blitz on 34% of snaps while flashing Cover 1 and quarters. The Ducks are top-10 nationally in Defensive Passing Success Rate, ranking top-25 in both Quality and Finishing Drives.

In a conference full of explosives, Oregon has allowed just 10 passes to exceed 30 yards. The Ducks have two of the highest-graded safeties in the nation in Steve Stephens IV and Evan Williams.

No team with national title aspirations is playing better than Oregon, which has generated a 7-1-1 record against the spread with an average cover margin of 10.5 points.

The defensive coaching change at USC was long overdue, but a game plan that hopes to simply find a spark without changing schematics could be a recipe for disaster.

Oregon comes in as the No. 1 team in pressures allowed and on-target passing, a metric that counts throws at the highest level of accuracy.

Those ranks may be assisted by the dip in Nix's average depth of target, but the super senior has been just as lethal in downfield passing.

Action Network projects Oregon by just 13 points with a total of 71.5.

The biggest handicap in this game is the number of possessions and the Trojans' ability to keep up. Both of these teams have played Washington, and there's a high probability that Oregon and USC will have 11 offensive possessions.

The biggest contrast in this game is Oregon's rank in Defensive Quality Drives. The Ducks are 16th defensively in drives that gain 25 yards or less. That number takes a strong dip with the Trojans' rank at 113th.

Oregon has surrendered just 26 red-zone attempts this season, allowing the 18th-lowest rate of touchdowns.

Look for the Oregon defense to limit scoring opportunities for USC as the Ducks advance one step closer to the College Football Playoff.

Pick: Under 73 or Better

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