Power Ratings vs. Spreads: Biggest Discrepancies for College Football Week 7

Oct 08, 2018 12:00 AM EDT
  • With lines posted for college football Week 7, Collin Wilson finds value in five games by using his power ratings.
  • Here are the biggest discrepancies between his ratings and the opening lines, including Missouri's trip to Alabama.

Now that the opening lines for Week 7 of college football are out, let’s take a look at some of the biggest differences between my projected point spreads and what the books actually posted.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts for all my plays as the college football market continually moves.


Week 7 College Football Point Spread Projections

The Action Network spread reflects our numbers from Sunday morning, before the books posted their lines.

Akron at Buffalo

  • Action Network spread: Buffalo -17
  • Posted spread: Buffalo -11.5

The Bulls have been sputtering after a loss to Army and a 10-point victory over Central Michigan that was aided by four turnovers from the Chipps. Buffalo’s star wide receiver Anthony Johnson did not record a catch in those games, while quarterback Tyree Jackson has struggled with his completion percentage.

This is a revenge game from 2017, but Buffalo’s skill position stars need to return to form to cover the spread.

UNLV at Utah State

  • Action Network spread: Utah State -20
  • Posted spread: Utah State -24

UNLV lost quarterback Armani Rogers, who was vital to a Rebels rushing attack that was one of the top in the nation in explosiveness. The Rebs lost 50-14 to New Mexico, with quarterback Max Gilliam completing 15-of-35 passes for 123 yards.

There is some tough sledding in the future for UNLV as the Rebels search for an offensive identity post-Rogers.

UCLA at California

  • Action Network spread: Cal -13
  • Posted spread: Cal -7.5

Two teams heading in separate directions might have oddsmakers shading the point spread in anticipation of wagering.

UCLA covered against Washington, showing an efficient offense under freshman quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Bruins had almost as many yards as the Huskies, but allowed too many third-down conversions.

Meanwhile, Cal has lost two straight and failed to cover since Week 2 against BYU. The Bears have gone -6 in turnovers over the past two weeks.

Missouri at Alabama

  • Action Network spread: Alabama -22.5
  • Posted spread: Alabama -28

Oddsmakers continue to see Alabama race out to early first-half covers only to go into cruise control in the second half. In Week 6, Alabama was able to score on its first offensive play at Arkansas.

But the Crimson Tide have not covered in three straight games, against Arkansas, ULL and Texas A&M. While this full-game number is well ahead of The Action Network projection, it also eclipses S&P+ projection of Alabama -19.5.

Hawaii at BYU

  • Action Network spread: BYU -15
  • Posted spread: BYU -8

One offshore sportsbook opened a spread on this number with Hawaii quarterback Cole McDonald listed as questionable after being ruled out against Wyoming. The extent of McDonald’s injuries are unknown, but the spread currently available at BYU -8 assumes he will play.

Credit:

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Saban

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MSU
MICH
+6.5
47.5
+7.5
41
LSU
MSST
-6.5
44.5
-6.5
46
TEM
CIN
-3.5
48.5
-3.5
47.5
ECU
UCF
+24
64.5
+21.5
65.5
USF
CONN
-31
70
-32.5
69
WASH
COLO
-17
51
-17
50
TCU
OKLA
+7.5
61
+7
62
WSU
ORE
-2
66
-3
68.5
UK
VAN
-11.5
48
-11
46
TENN
BAMA
+28.5
58
+29
57.5
CLEM
NCST
-17
53.5
-17.5
58
IOWA
MD
-13.5
51.5
-9
42.5
PUR
OSU
+12
64.5
+13
69
WISC
ILL
-25.5
54.5
-24
56
IND
PSU
+13
62
+14
58