College Football Playoff Picks, Futures, Odds: Betting Value on Oregon? (Nov. 14)
Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon’s Bo Nix.
There was minimal disruption to the national title picture after a set of Top-25 games in Week 11.
Both Penn State and Ole Miss suffered losses to two teams projected to make the College Football Playoff, ending their hopes of a national and conference crown.
The number of teams that can win the title has dwindled to just nine with three weeks of play remaining.
Many of the playoff spots will be settled in head-to-head fashion, with Alabama and Georgia scheduled for the SEC Championship one week after Michigan and Ohio State play in Week 13.
Here's the updated list of national title contenders, along with their chance of sweeping their remaining schedule that includes a conference championship game:
To determine where value is in the national championship market, we must follow the “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff.”
These rules serve as a roadmap to the national semifinal, detecting value in futures before the committee releases the rankings.
The first set of rankings were released nine seasons ago, giving consumers 36 different data points for entry into the playoff.
The goal of this column is to find the best betting value before each Tuesday checkpoint when the committee updates its rankings.
Here's a look at the Four Commandments to apply when handicapping the ever-changing selection committee.
1
CFP Commandment No. 1
“An undefeated Power 5 conference champion is automatically in.”
Note: We have never had five undefeated Power 5 champions, and that will continue with the cannibalization of the Big 12.
Florida State, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Georgia are the only Power 5 teams that remain undefeated.
2
CFP Commandment No. 2
“A one-loss Power 5 conference champion is automatically in… barring a Purdue-esque event.”
Note: Ohio State was left out of the 2018 College Football Playoff as a one-loss Big Ten champion.
Alabama was selected as an at-large after taking its first loss in the SEC Championship game, while the Buckeyes couldn’t recover from a 49-20 defeat at the hands of a 6-6 Purdue team.
Alabama, Oregon and Texas currently meet this criteria. None of these teams have suffered an embarrassing loss, but Louisville’s loss to Pittsburgh is a knockout.
Alabama, Oregon and Texas all hold losses to teams ranked in the Top 10.
3
CFP Commandment No. 3
“A two-loss Power 5 conference champion cannot jump a one-loss team into the Playoff.”
Note: This precedent was set when Ohio State missed the CFP in 2017 as the Big Ten champion with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa.
No current two-loss teams have the resume to make the Playoff.
4
CFP Commandment No. 4
“A two-loss Power 5 team trumps an undefeated Group of Five team with the right strength of record and head-to-head victories.”
Note: UCF finished 2018 undefeated but was passed by two-loss Michigan and Georgia. Cincinnati continued to fall in the 2020 rankings, as three-loss Florida and two-loss Oklahoma passed the Bearcats.
In 2021, Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff because of a head-to-head victory over No. 5 Notre Dame, while No. 6 Ohio State was not selected as a two-loss team after head-to-head losses against No. 2 Michigan and No. 14 Oregon.
Tulane is expected to rank in the Top 25 as a one-loss team, but its loss to Ole Miss shuts the door on a playoff opportunity.
Bracket 1: SEC Championship
Contenders: Georgia, Alabama
Remaining Schedule:
- Georgia: Tennessee +10 · at Georgia Tech +24.5
- Alabama: Chattanooga +42.5 · Auburn +9.5
- SEC Championship: Alabama +2.5 vs. Georgia
Lookahead lines have started to pop for certain conference championships, as our Action Network Power Ratings project Georgia as a short 2.5-point favorite over Alabama in Atlanta. There's value in taking Alabama at the current lookahead line of +5, assuming the Crimson Tide survive Chattanooga and the Iron Bowl.
The winner of the SEC title game will cement their name in the playoff, barring any regular-season losses in the next two weeks.
Alabama was the look last week at +900 odds to win the national title, but a shortened number of +650 doesn't have the same value as a rolling parlay card.
Georgia is expected to roll at Tennessee before a regular-season finale with Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs would be favored over every other team in the national semifinals, making the true odds on Georgia around +350.
The SEC is a pass in the futures market, but this is a great spot to back Alabama in the SEC Championship game before Georgia heads to Tennessee and Alabama plays Chattanooga.
Bracket 2: Big Ten East
Contenders: Ohio State, Michigan
Remaining Schedule:
- Ohio State: Minnesota +28 · at Michigan -6.5 · Iowa +19
- Michigan: at Maryland +20.5 · Ohio State +6.5 · Iowa +22
Happy trails to the Penn State Nittany Lions after they continued another season of struggles for James Franklin against Ohio State and Michigan.
The Wolverines project as 6-point favorites over Ohio State in Week 13, and both teams in "The Game" would be heavily favored over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.
The Buckeyes have no value at their current odds to win the national title, projecting as an underdog in games against Michigan and the SEC champion. Surprisingly, Oregon would also be favored over Ohio State in a neutral-site playoff game, giving no value to the Buckeyes in the futures market.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh may be suspended for the remainder of the regular season, but that doesn't diminish the chances for the Wolverines to win the national title.
A parlay of two playoff toss-ups and a projected -150 game over Ohio State equates to a 5-1 futures. The best spot to play a Big Ten future is after the dust has settled from the Horseshoe on Thanksgiving weekend.
Bracket 3: Pac-12 Champion
Contenders: Washington, Oregon
Remaining Schedule:
- Washington: at Oregon State +1 · Washington State +17
- Oregon: at Arizona State +23 · Oregon State +11
- Pac-12 Championship: Oregon -5.5 vs. Washington
Three weeks ago, this column attacked Oregon 30-1 futures, as the Ducks had the clearest path to the College Football Playoff. If any readers did not get action down on Bo Nix's campaign for a national title during his Heisman run, the futures market may have thrown a bone to investors at the current price.
Oregon was listed as high as a 6-point favorite in the lookahead line for a Pac-12 Championship showdown against Washington in Las Vegas.
The Ducks will be favored over a number of possible opponents in the playoff, including Texas, Ohio State and Alabama. Oregon +850 is the investment of the week, as it looks to survive a tricky spot in Tempe this week.
Washington remains undefeated while navigating the treacherous waters of Pac-12 cannibalization. The Huskies survived several circus acts at the end of their victory over Utah, all but sealing their path to the conference championship game.
The futures market offers no value on a Washington team that would be underdogs to a half-dozen other squads in the playoff and project to lose by nearly a touchdown in Vegas for the conference title.
First up for the undefeated Huskies — surviving Corvallis as an underdog to Oregon State in Week 12.
ACC or Big 12 Champion
Contenders: Florida State, Louisville, Texas
There are a number of possible scenarios for conference champions not mentioned and the at-large status of one-loss teams expecting to hover around the top four of the rankings.
Our “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff” must be followed in determining betting value on the following teams:
Florida State Wins ACC
Remaining Schedule:
- North Alabama +52 · at Florida +13 · ACC Championship: Louisville +10.5
The Seminoles survived a scare from the Miami Hurricanes in Week 11. Now, only North Alabama and Florida stand in the way before the ACC Championship.
Soft results against Miami, Pitt and Boston College have kept the buying price in range on the Seminoles. Florida State will be a double-digit favorite over both Florida and Louisville, as the Seminoles have the highest chance of sweeping the remainder of their schedule.
Florida State may be a heavy underdog in the College Football Playoff, but a futures price at +950 this late in the season can be hedged in the semifinals.
Texas Wins Big 12
Remaining Schedule:
- at Iowa State +8 · Texas Tech +14 · Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma State +8.5
The loss of Jonathon Brooks takes away one of the best running back options in the nation, as Texas will turn to CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue to pick up the slack throughout its run to the Big 12 Championship.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers returned in a victory over TCU, posting two big-time throws and just a single turnover-worthy play.
The Longhorns are the heavy favorite to win the conference at -175, needing to survive a trip to Ames against Iowa State in Week 12.
When projecting the remaining games, Texas has true odds of -124 to win out through the Big 12 Championship.
A bigger hurdle is the position of the Pac-12 in the playoff rankings, along with the eventual bump of Michigan and Ohio State after Week 13.
Texas needs help just to get to the playoff, so there's no value in a 20-1 number to win the national title.
Louisville Wins ACC
Remaining Schedule:
- at Miami +2 · Kentucky +3.5 · ACC Championship: Florida State -10.5
The path for Louisville is clear: win in Week 12, it will make the conference championship game in Charlotte in Week 14.
The true odds of beating Miami and Florida State sit at +760, giving no value to current conference championship odds of +300.
Assuming head coach Jeff Brohm would pull the worst-case scenario and play the toughest teams in the playoff, Louisville would be a 17-point underdog to Michigan or Georgia.
The odds of winning the ACC, along with running through Georgia and Michigan equate to 420-1 odds, per Action Network's Parlay Calculator.
Despite a triple-digit number in the market, Louisville's market odds are nowhere close to the projected moneyline rollover.
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