College Football PrizePicks: Week 5 Plays for Jalon Daniels, Brock Bowers & Riley Leonard (Sept. 30)
Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels leads his team onto the field before a game against the Duke Blue Devils at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium.
We kept the good times rolling on Saturday, improving to 8-1 in the last three weeks. It was a skill-position affair in Week 4, but we’ll return to a quarterback-heavy approach this week.
Plus, there's no need to remember any streaming provider log-ins — all three plays are on national television.
Week 5 College Football PrizePicks
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's top college football PrizePicks plays for Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific play discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Kansas vs. Texas
Daniels has cruised past this number in four of his last six starts, including last season’s tilt with Texas, where he threw for 230 yards.
But his recent success through the air is just one reason to feel confident in this square.
From a game flow perspective, Kansas should be playing from behind for most of the game. Even if they do hang around for an extended period, running against the Texas defense is a fool’s errand. The Longhorns rank 11th nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
The implied score in this game is Texas 39, Kansas 22. With the Jayhawks bombing away against a UT defense that's 105th in Explosive Pass Plays Allowed, I foresee Daniels landing in the 250+-yard range when all is said and done. The Jayhawks average one 40+ yard pass completion per game (39th), and Daniels is playing at an elite level.
The junior signal-caller has connected on 74.7% of his passes (eighth) and ranks 19th nationally in QBR.
I would play over on this square up to 219.5.
Pick: Daniels More Than 210.5 Passing Yards (Play to 219.5)
Georgia vs. Auburn
Georgia’s offense spent the first 10 quarters of the season breaking in a new starting quarterback and offensive coordinator.
Carson Beck eased into the starting role with two ho-hum performances, finishing with QBRs of 60.9 and 59.7, respectively.
But after a slow start against South Carolina, he’s turned the corner.
Trailing the Gamecocks 14-3 at halftime, Beck entered the locker room 13-for-18 for 98 yards with zero touchdowns. Since then, he’s completed 73.4% of his passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns in the past six quarters.
Brock Bowers has been his main target since halftime of that South Carolina game.
The All-American tight end has been on a heater in the past six quarters, exploding for 15 receptions, 167 yards and two scores. Mike Bobo and his offensive staff have realized that this offense can’t be elite without a prominent role for Bowers.
While most tight end touchdown props require a red-zone target, Bowers can score from distance and has been featured in the running game. During his career, Bowers has scored five rushing touchdowns and an astounding 10 receiving touchdowns of 20 or more yards.
You essentially get a tight end, goal-line back and big-play receiver wrapped into one.
Pick: Bowers More Than 0.5 Rushing + Receiving Touchdowns
Notre Dame vs. Duke
If you remove Leonard’s performance against Lafayette, an FCS tune-up game in which he was pulled after a 12-for-12 start, Duke’s QB1 has exceeded this number in seven of his last eight starts.
My projections say Leonard’s rushing and passing prop should be set at 274.5 yards.
Against a similar dual-threat in NC State's Brennan Armstrong three weeks ago, Notre Dame’s defense surrendered 286 yards. Duke has decidedly better line play than NC State, evidenced by its Havoc Allowed metric (second) and rushing PPA (29th). This should help Leonard avoid sacks while gobbling up rushing yards.
Last week, Notre Dame allowed 240 yards through the air to Kyle McCord, who was working without Marvin Harrison Jr. for nearly the entire second half.
Duke’s receiving corps doesn’t have a gamebreaker like Harrison, but it's deep and talented. Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore have over 300 career receptions, providing Leonard with experienced receiver play on the perimeter.
Duke will likely call Leonard’s number seven-to-10 times in this game, giving him an excellent chance to eclipse 40 yards on the ground.
If he accomplishes that, this hybrid total should fall easily against a Notre Dame pass defense that's susceptible to giving up the big play through the air and ranks 109th in Explosiveness Allowed.
Pick: Leonard More Than 245.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (Play to 255.5)
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