Pros Betting Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech, Two Other Thursday Night Games
credit USA Today Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three College Football games on Thursday, headlined by Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET).
- Virginia Tech is listed as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 58.5.
- Pros are also getting down on Toledo-Western Michigan and Ball State-Ohio (both at 7 p.m. ET).
October is arguably the best month of the year for sports bettors. With so many different sports being played all at once, the action never ends. Tonight is a perfect example.
We have Dolphins-Texans, four NBA games and a stacked NHL slate. But when it comes to wiseguy smart money, they all take a back seat to Thursday night college football.
After analyzing Thursday’s five-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three NCAAF bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Toledo at Western Michigan
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Toledo (moved from +6.5 to +5)
Recreational bettors love favorites, home teams and teams with better won-loss records than their opponents. Western Michigan (6-2) checks off all three boxes tonight.
This game opened at Western Michigan -4.5. Heavy public action pushed the line up to -6.5. That’s when wiseguys pounced on road dog Toledo (3-4) at an inflated number.
Pros at 5Dimes hit Toledo +7 and +6 and sharps at CRIS hit Toledo +6.5, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves.
This overload of sharp action has forced oddsmakers to drop the line back down to +5. Some books are even down to +4.5. Toledo is receiving only 26% of bets but 42% of dollars — further indication of smart money in its favor.
Ball State at Ohio
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Ball State (+11 to +10.5)
Another MAC showdown, another Pros vs. Joes betting disagreement.
In the most lopsided game of the night, nearly 80% of bettors are laying the points with home favorite Ohio (4-3). But the sharps are buying low on Ball State (3-4) to keep it close.
Despite receiving only 24% of bets, Ball State have moved from +11 to +10.5. Why would the line move in its favor if the public is fading them?
Because pros at ABC and CRIS got down hard on Ball State, triggering market-wide reverse line movement.
Ball State is down to +10 at BookMaker, one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks.
All of the bet signals came at Ball State +10.5 or more, so sharps are telling you that the hook is crucial if you’re backing the road dog Cardinals.
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
7:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Georgia Tech (moved from +4.5 to +3.5)
Virginia Tech is 4-2, at home and laying only a handful of points against 3-4 Georgia Tech? Hokies all day!
Not so fast, say the Goodfellas.
Despite receiving 70% of bets, Virginia Tech has fallen from +4.5 to +3.5. This sharp reverse line movement indicates smart money grabbing the points with the road dog Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech is also in a profitable historical spot. Short road dogs (+4 or less) have gone 54.4% against the spread (+72.13 units, 6.1% return on investment) since 2005.
Sharps might even be taking a shot on Georgia Tech to win straight up. Historically, short road dogs on the moneyline have produced +109.82 units with a 9.5% ROI since 2005.
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