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Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there. Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
We have another loaded college football weekend with plenty of massive games and playoff implications, but that doesn't always translate to easy player prop selections. This week, I'm focusing on a combination of favorable defensive matchups, recent usage trends, and coverage tendencies that could create opportunities for some big performances.
There are a few interesting QB-WR pairings on the board, particularly in games where the defensive scheme plays directly into what the offense does best. We also have a couple of rushing props where the workload and matchup give us a clear path to success.
With that in mind, let's get into my favorite higher picks for this weekend's college football slate.
For this slate, there are eight numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Picks
He's only had one full game, but he cleared this number in it, throwing for 224 yards against Colorado last week. He took 35 dropbacks in that game, and the matchup is what sells it to me: Oklahoma State is allowing 7.47 yards per dropback to QBs and 263.8 yards passing per game. They don’t get a ton of pressure, and Barnett showed some promise.
Manning is the pass catcher I want with him. He's cleared 50.5 receiving yards in three of eight games, but both of his last two hit: 57 yards against Arizona State and 73 against Colorado, with his target share rising to 28% in that last game. He's the deep target in the first start for Barnett and one of the main targets overall.
Bowick has cleared this number in five of eight games, averaging 91.4 receiving yards per game, with 81 yards against Oregon, 178 against Murray State, 98 against UCF, 138 against Colorado, and 124 last week against Iowa State. He's at a 93% route share with a 14.5 aDOT, and he's at 4.32 yards per route run against man coverage, which Kansas State plays 43% of the time.
Picks: Blake Barnett Higher than 213.5 Yards Passing + Josh Manning Higher than 50.5 Yards Receiving | Justin Bowick Higher than 73.5 Yards Receiving
Alabama vs LSU Picks
Coming off the bye week, I think Alabama will look to utilize Russell's legs early to help him find a rhythm with the offense on the road. Two years ago, Alabama went into LSU against this same DC, and Jalen Milroe rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns.
While I don't expect Russell to have that type of performance, incorporating some aspects of that game plan should help him clear 19.5 rushing yards. LSU has done a good job containing mobile QBs this season, but none have had Keelon's combination of passing and rushing ability.
I also believe Alabama getting closer to full strength along the OL will make a significant difference in this matchup.
Alabama hasn't faced Lane Kiffin's offense this season, and the two closest comparisons are Josh Heupel and Jeff Lebby. Heupel runs a similar style of offense with a comparable approach along the OL, and his teams have consistently found success running the ball against Alabama.
Jones is a workhorse RB in a great spot against this defensive front. Every RB with at least 15 rushing attempts against Alabama this season has surpassed 80 rushing yards, and Jones has fallen short of 15 carries just once all year.
Picks: Keelon Russell Higher than 19.5 Yards Rushing + Dillin Jones Higher than 78.5 Yards Rushing
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Cincinnati vs Houston Picks
French has cleared this number in four of eight games: 245 yards against Western Carolina, 309 against Miami (Ohio), 389 against West Virginia, and 263 last week against Utah. He's elite against two-high at 8.68 yards per dropback, and Houston shows two-high 66% of the time, with zone at 82%.
French is at 7.97 yards per dropback against zone. Houston has also allowed two 300-yard passers in eight games, and Drew Mestemaker threw for 365 yards against them. I think this is a great spot for French to clear 225.5 again.
Gibson is the pass catcher I want with him. He's cleared 59.5 receiving yards in five of eight games: 79, 68, 66, 75, and 76 yards. His role has only grown, with an 88% route share and a 31% target share in recent games.
Overmyer has cleared this number in five of eight games: 84 yards against Oregon State, 73 against Texas Tech, 68 against Georgia Southern, 76 against UCF, and 83 against Kansas State.
In full-role games, he's really 5-of-7. The misses were 16 yards in a 77-6 blowout and 32 against Oklahoma State, plus a 6-snap game against Utah last week where he was knocked out of the game early.
Cincinnati leaks to tight ends: Garrett Oakley had 80 yards against them, while Hunter Andrews had 112.
Picks: JC French IV Higher than 225.5 Yards Passing + JV Gibson Higher than 59.5 Yards Receiving | Patrick Overmyer Higher than 51.5 Yards Receiving
