Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities.
Underdog is one place where I can use my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
Another loaded college football weekend is here, and with the College Football Playoff race heating up, plenty of games have major implications.
This week's player prop card features a mix of players with consistent production, favorable matchups, and a few numbers that I think are simply too low given the opportunities ahead.
One thing I'm focusing on this weekend is how defensive coverage tendencies match up with individual players. We have several receivers and tight ends who have been extremely productive against specific coverages, and their opponents this week play right into those strengths. There are also a couple of defenses whose season-long numbers look better than what they've actually shown against quality competition.
The rushing matchup for Georgia is particularly interesting, while Arizona State's passing attack has an opportunity to take advantage of a UCF secondary that has struggled all season. With established roles, favorable game environments, and defensive weaknesses to attack, I like the opportunities on this week's card.
With that in mind, let's get into my favorite higher picks for this weekend's college football slate. For this slate, five numbers stand out to me, and I’m comfortable pushing several well beyond the current projection.
Wake Forest vs SMU Picks
Yamir Knight has topped 50 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, and the only two games he failed to reach that mark were 59-20 wins.
This game has a 60-point total and a tight spread, so I expect SMU to need to throw the football.
When Wake Forest has struggled defensively, it's been against tight ends and slot receivers, which is where Knight has made his living. Wake Forest plays almost exclusively zone coverage, and Knight is averaging an impressive 3.93 yards per route run against zone this season.
Pick: Yamir Knight Higher Than 49.5 Receiving Yards
UCF vs Arizona State Picks
Alonza Barnett looks healthy for UCF, and his primary target should be Josh Derry, who dominates the team's slot usage.
Derry has topped 70 receiving yards in four of his past five games, including two straight with Barnett under center.
Arizona State plays a lot of two-high coverage, and of the five players who have recorded at least 80 receiving yards against them this season, four have primarily operated out of the slot. That's exactly where Derry has made his living in this UCF offense, making this a great matchup for him.
Pick: Josh Derry Higher Than 69.5 Receiving Yards
Jake Fette hasn't been great as a passer, but this number is disrespectful.
No FBS quarterback has thrown for fewer than 200 yards against this UCF defense, and the Knights have faced some pretty bad passers.
UCF did a great job limiting Caleb Hawkins and Houston's rushing attack, so I expect them to have some success slowing down Cardae Mack and forcing Arizona State to throw.
The weapons in this Arizona State passing attack are excellent, with Reed Harris and Omarion Miller both capable of creating explosive plays. Now heading into their third start together, I expect Fette and these receivers to find success against a vulnerable UCF secondary.
Pick: Jake Fette Higher Than 196.5 Passing Yards
USC vs Indiana Picks
Against zone coverage, Mark Bowman has a 29% target-per-route run rate with Jayden Maiava at quarterback, and I expect him to rack up receptions because Indiana lives in zone coverage.
Then you factor in the matchup: Indiana has allowed seven receptions to both Luke Dehnicke and Luke Lindenmeyer, and Bowman is one of the five best tight ends in the nation.
Since returning from injury, Bowman has already posted three receptions for 79 yards against a good Ohio State defense. I think he'll be a big part of this USC passing attack this weekend.
Pick: Mark Bowman Higher Than 3.5 Receptions
Missouri vs Georgia Picks
This Missouri run defense has elite metrics this season, but when you dig a little deeper, much of that success has come against poor offensive lines and rushing attacks.
Ole Miss had two running backs rush for over 100 yards, Mississippi State's Fluff Bothwell created multiple explosive plays, and even Texas was able to run the ball successfully. Missouri did limit Florida when I thought Jadan Baugh was a Heisman candidate, but things have gone south for that Florida offense since then.
On top of that, this Georgia offensive line is a different animal. Georgia has been the best run-blocking team in the country, and Nate Frazier broke off multiple explosive runs last week, looking like the back we saw before his rib injury.
Frazier has topped 60 rushing yards in two straight games, and I expect him to make it three this weekend.
Pick: Nate Frazier Higher Than 60.5 Rushing Yards
Summary
This week's card is built around favorable matchups, defensive tendencies, and players who have shown consistent production in their roles. A few numbers seem too low given the opportunities these players should have this weekend.
Yamir Knight and Josh Derry are two receivers I really like because their usage matches up well with the defenses they're facing. Knight has been incredibly efficient against zone coverage, which Wake Forest plays almost exclusively, while Derry gets an Arizona State defense that has consistently allowed big performances to slot wide receivers.
Nate Frazier is my favorite rushing matchup on the card. Missouri's season-long defensive metrics look great, but they've been vulnerable against better rushing attacks. Georgia's offensive line is a different challenge, and Frazier looks healthy and back to his explosive form.
Jake Fette hasn't been great as a passer, but UCF has allowed every FBS quarterback they've faced to throw for at least 200 yards. With Arizona State's weapons on the outside and UCF potentially limiting the rushing attack, I think Fette has a great opportunity to clear this number.
Mark Bowman rounds out the card in a matchup against an Indiana defense that lives in zone coverage. His target rate against zone with Maiava at quarterback is impressive, and we've already seen tight ends find success against this defense.
Overall, I'm targeting players whose usage and individual strengths line up with the weaknesses of the defenses they're facing. Some of these players have been consistently clearing their numbers, while others are in matchups where I think the market is undervaluing their opportunities.
