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Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there. Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
Week 8 is an opportunity to get back on track, and I really like the matchups we have this weekend. There are a few defenses on this slate that continue to struggle against the pass, and I think we have the right players to take advantage of those weaknesses.
Miami and TCU are two passing attacks I'm particularly excited about, with both QBs in favorable matchups and WRs who have the underlying metrics to put together big performances.
I'm also targeting a couple of individual matchups where defensive tendencies and expected game scripts should create more opportunities through the air. I feel good about the numbers this week, and I'm looking forward to turning some of these strong matchups into winning results.
For this slate, there are five numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection.
Pitt vs Miami Picks
Daylyn Upshaw played 81% of the snaps against Florida State last weekend and has become a key part of Miami's passing attack. Now he gets a Pittsburgh defense that loves to blitz and play two-high coverage, which sets up perfectly for his skill set. Upshaw is averaging 2.89 yards per route run against two-high looks and has been targeted more frequently than Cooper Barkate when Mensah faces the blitz.
Darian Mensah leads the country in yards per dropback against the blitz this season, and the only offense Pittsburgh has faced that's remotely comparable to Miami is Virginia Tech, when Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 434 yards. I think this is a fantastic matchup for Miami's passing attack, and Upshaw is one of my favorite ways to take advantage of it.
Picks: Darian Mensah Higher than 253.5 Yards Passing + Daylyn Upshaw Higher than 34.5 Yards Receiving
West Virginia vs TCU Picks
Starting RB Jeremy Payne is questionable for this game, and when he went down against Baylor, TCU dropped back at a 63% rate.
West Virginia has been the worst defense in the country against the pass, with only two QBs failing to reach 300 passing yards against them: Beau Pribula and Jaylen Raynor. Even Raynor would have cleared that number if you included the passing yards from his RB.
Craig has thrown for over 293 yards in four of his last five games, with the lone exception coming against a very difficult BYU defense. With Payne potentially out and this matchup being as good as it gets, I think Craig is in a fantastic spot for another big passing performance.
West Virginia has been getting destroyed on the perimeter this season. Of the four WRs who have topped 100 receiving yards against this defense, three had at least 67% of their targets come from a wide alignment.
Despite battling injuries for much of the season, Dwyer has already climbed to second on TCU in targets from a wide alignment and has been incredibly efficient. Kari Ashley is also questionable, which could further consolidate the targets around Dwyer and Ed Small. We finally saw Dwyer and Craig develop some chemistry last week, with Dwyer finishing with 130 receiving yards.
West Virginia has already allowed massive performances to Wyatt Young (192 yards), Isaiah Mizell (183), Cody Jackson (160), and Malachi Henry (128).
Given Dwyer's role and the way this defense struggles against outside WRs, I think he's in an incredible spot to join that list.
Picks: Jaden Craig Higher than 292.5 Yards Passing + Jordan Dwyer Higher than 81.5 Yards Receiving
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LSU vs Auburn Pick
Jackson Harris was spotted wearing a boot on his foot after halftime last week, and while he isn't listed on the injury report, I have a hard time believing he's 100% healthy.
Winston Watkins is already LSU's primary target against man coverage, which I expect Auburn to play plenty of in this matchup, and I think that puts him in a great spot to clear 60 receiving yards. Watkins has reached at least 54 receiving yards in four of seven games this season, with two of the misses coming against FCS opponents and another coming last week in a 31-0 victory when his aDOT was just -0.33.
I expect Auburn to push LSU more offensively, creating additional opportunities for Watkins to see targets downfield.
Pick: Winston Watkins Higher than 52.5 Yards Receiving
Tennessee vs South Carolina Pick
Tennessee comes into this matchup as the underdog, and South Carolina has shown me enough defensively to believe they can stop the run. That means Tennessee will likely need George MacIntyre to throw the ball more, and he's already proven capable of putting up solid passing numbers.
He's thrown for 197 yards against Alabama and 247 against Arkansas, clearing this number in every start this season. I also think this is a matchup where we'll finally see more explosive plays from Tennessee's passing attack, with Mike Matthews being the primary beneficiary of those downfield opportunities.
Pick: George MacIntyre Higher than 192.5 Yards Passing
