Georgia vs Florida Odds, Picks | The Bet to Make for SEC Rivalry
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh (left) and tight end Brock Bowers (right).
Georgia vs Florida Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -2300 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | +1060 |
Another chapter in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is set to be written from Jacksonville on Saturday afternoon.
Georgia leads the all-time series, 54-44-2, since the first meeting in 1904. The Bulldogs have won four of the last five in this series, but the neutral-site extravaganza may be a look-ahead spot. Undefeated No. 3 Tennessee heads to Athens next week as the showcase game of Week 10.
But first, the Bulldogs must face the Gators with a new coach.
Billy Napier has experienced high and low points through his first seven games in Gainesville. A red-zone interception sealed a victory over Utah, but losses to Kentucky and LSU give the Gators no shot to win the SEC East.
With South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M on the remaining schedule, there will be every chance for Napier to keep Florida competing in postseason play.
Although an upset of Georgia does nothing to deter the Bulldogs' chances of winning the division and conference, it would serve as the biggest upset of the college football season.
Georgia Bulldogs
Every golfer gets a case of the yips, but in the case of college football, that can come through in the form of an inexplicable game result.
Kent State faced just a 10-point deficit against Georgia in the fourth quarter, while Missouri held a 10-point lead on the Bulldogs in the final frame. The reigning national champions won those games with high post-game win expectancies, but questions remain about whether or not Kirby Smart's team is vulnerable.
Georgia boasts the highest Offensive Success Rate mark in all of college football, along with a top-10 number in Finishing Drives.
When in doubt, throw it to Brock Bowers pic.twitter.com/FSxF7jtXU3
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 2, 2022
Daijun Edwards leads a potent ground attack that ranks 13th in Stuff Rate behind a solid offensive line, but it's the tools of tight end Brock Bowers that makes Georgia a national power.
Bowers can line up at any position on the field, playing 116 snaps in the slot, 19 as a wideout and 60 as a traditional tight end.
Darnell Washington may not have as many targets as Bowers, but the 6-foot-7 mammoth tight end has assisted in generating single coverage for all targets.
Many expected the Georgia defense to see a cut in production across the board entering the season. Plenty of players from the national title team hit the NFL Draft, and coordinator Dan Lanning left for the head coaching position at Oregon.
New coordinator Glenn Schumann has filled in admirably, as the Bulldogs rank top-10 in Defensive Success Rate and second nationally in Finishing Drives. Opponents have crossed Georgia's 40-yard line only 22 times this season, averaging a minuscule 2.3 points per trip.
Florida Gators
Napier approached the bye week with full focus on the defensive side of the ball. The Florida coaching staff believes the problems have been identified and that getting consistency is the next stop.
There are a number of areas that need relief, as the Gators rank outside the top 100 in Success Rate against the rush and the pass.
The biggest gaping hole in the defensive numbers is the ability to generate Havoc. While rankings for fumbles and tackles for loss sit mid-FBS, the Gators are 129th in passes defensed, recording just 10 pass breakups this season.
Free safety Trey Dean III has just one forced incompletion on the season. Florida spends nearly 70% of coverage snaps in zone and gave up 349 passing yards in their latest game against LSU.
Quarterback Anthony Richardson and running back Montrell Johnson Jr. had plenty of success on the ground against LSU, posting 6.4 yards per carry. While those numbers are great on paper, they can be deceiving, as 77% of Richardson's rush numbers come from scrambles.
Anthony Richardson is 𝐑𝐈𝐃𝐈𝐂𝐔𝐋𝐎𝐔𝐒 🤯🔥@GatorsFB x #SECFBpic.twitter.com/rwictgpgDS
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) October 21, 2022
Opponents have been willing to give up the field to Richardson when running the offense, electing to stiffen in the red zone. Florida ranks 69th in Offensive Finishing Drives thanks to a healthy red-zone touchdown percentage.
Any team that excels in limiting explosive plays in standard downs while playing zone has had success in containing Richardson.
Georgia vs Florida Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Florida match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs Georgia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 5 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 33 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 77 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 2 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Georgia Offense vs Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 107 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 107 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 9 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 122 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 85 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 45 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 6 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 61 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (83) | 29.4 (120) |
| Rush Rate | 56.0% (51) | 48.4% (96) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia vs Florida Betting Pick
Florida has struggled with teams that play zone coverage and have a high grade in tackling.
Georgia runs zone on a healthy amount of coverage snaps but has seen a dip in tackling compared to last season's squad. The Bulldogs sit 45th in tackle grading, but more importantly, rank in the bottom half of the country in generating Havoc.
Richardson may not see as much blitz as the Bulldogs look to eliminate chunk plays. Just as Florida is the most explosive team offensively in early downs, Georgia ranks fourth in limiting explosiveness in standard downs.
The bigger question for the Gators is the lack of playmakers on the backside of its defense. Not only do they possess poor ranks in coverage and Finishing Drives, but Florida is also 129th in opponent Success Rate in passing downs.
If Georgia gets behind the chains, Bowers and Washington will be the primary targets for quarterback Stetson Bennett. To this point, the national champion quarterback has not been asked to do much with only eight completions beyond 20 yards.
Action Network projects Georgia as a 21.5-point favorite, just shy of where the market has steamed. That can be justified when considering Florida's defensive numbers.
The handicap comes on whether or not the Gators can score enough to keep the game close. The Bulldogs rely heavily on four or fewer defenders for a pass rush — an area Georgia has struggled with all season, ranking 124th in sacks.
Richardson will do enough for Florida to generate scores. At the same time, there might not be a defense in college football prepared to stop Bowers and Washington in routes down the hashes and a rushing attack that features multiple backs.
With a projection of 63, look for Georgia to have its best offensive day while allowing Richardson to find a half-dozen scoring opportunities.
Pick: Over 56.5 |
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