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Florida vs Vanderbilt Odds, Predictions: Commodores Can Keep It Close

Florida vs Vanderbilt Odds, Predictions: Commodores Can Keep It Close article feature image

Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Vanderbilt running back Ray Davis.

Florida vs Vanderbilt Odds

Saturday, Nov. 19
12 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Florida Odds
-110o / -110u
Vanderbilt Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The streak is over. The Undertaker’s WrestleMania steak only made it 21 games, but the Commodores' SEC losing streak reached 26 games before Vanderbilt’s 24-21 win at Kentucky last week.

It marked the school’s first conference win since October 2019.

Clark Lea said, “In time Vanderbilt football will be the best program in the country,” and that just might have started last week. Now, Florida comes to Nashville fresh off blowout wins over Texas A&M and South Carolina.

Billy Napier has gotten his Gators to a bowl berth in his first season in Gainesville. If Vanderbilt can win out, it can reach a bowl as well. Will the Commodores be able to ride the momentum and start a new streak, or will Florida quickly stuff them back to the bottom of the conference?

Florida Gators

The Heisman hype for Anthony Richardson rose and died out faster than it did for Kenny Hill’s Heisman campaign. Richardson is completing just 55% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has 12 turnover-worthy plays and 12 big-time throws.

He continues to be dangerous with his legs and forms a three-headed backfield with Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. The Gators are second in the country, averaging 6.1 yards per carry this year. Florida is 24th in Line Yards and has been running wild over the past two games.

Defense has been the issue for Florida as the Gators rank 104th in the country. They create no Havoc and have been especially torched on the ground.

Things have gotten so bad on and off the field that one of the Gators best defensive players, Brenton Cox, was kicked off the team earlier this month for issues in the locker room that none of his teammates seemed too upset about.

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Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt’s quarterback will be a game-time decision after AJ Swann got banged up in the South Carolina game and missed last week.

Swann and Mike Wright have both played this season, combining for 19 touchdowns, five interceptions and over 200 yards per game. Swann is the better passer, but Wright is a dual threat, who has averaged 56.8 rushing yards per game and 8.3 yards per carry.

In last week’s win against Kentucky, Wright had 126 yards and a score on just 11 rushes. Running back Ray Davis has averaged 86 yards per game on the ground and has 296 yards over the past two weeks.

Mike Wright takes the ball 59 yards for a @VandyFootball TD 💨

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 12, 2022

I’m not going to tell you Vanderbilt’s defense is any good, but it's certainly not as inept as it has looked in recent years. The Commodores are still dreadful against the pass, but they’ve actually been solid against the run.

Linebacker Anfernee Orji is the do-it-all man for this defense. He leads the team with 95 tackles and the next closest guy has just 50. He also leads Vandy in tackles for loss, quarterback pressures and forced fumbles.

Florida vs Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and Vanderbilt match up statistically:

Florida Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Rush Success5871
Line Yards2483
Pass Success87124
Pass Blocking**38129
Finishing Drives84100
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Vanderbilt Offense vs. Florida Defense
Rush Success87104
Line Yards9185
Pass Success7490
Pass Blocking**9952
Finishing Drives50106
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling35118
PFF Coverage68107
SP+ Special Teams65115
Seconds per Play27.0 (82)27.8 (97)
Rush Rate57.6% (39)54.0% (66)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Florida vs Vanderbilt Betting Pick

Vanderbilt gets a big victory over Kentucky on the road and is now a two-touchdown underdog at home against a team Kentucky beat by 10?

This Florida defense has been a nightmare and is going to struggle to get stops against the Commodores, no matter who is playing quarterback.

Both teams are at their best when they are running the ball. Well, Vanderbilt’s rushing defense ranks 33 spots higher than Florida's.

Vanderbilt will be able to do enough on offense to move the ball and put up points. The Commodores have a big advantage when it comes to finishing drives. Both teams like to play at a slow pace and run the football, so it will be hard for either team to pull away.

Florida has played just two road games all season. The Gators are just 2-4 against the spread as a favorite this year and Vanderbilt has proven to be feisty. The Commodores have doubled their preseason win total and still have a mathematical chance at making a bowl.

I’m not saying they’ll win here, but I certainly like catching two touchdowns, so Anchor Down!

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