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Fresno State vs UNLV Odds, Prediction, Pick: Friday CFB Betting Preview

Fresno State vs UNLV Odds, Prediction, Pick: Friday CFB Betting Preview article feature image
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Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener.

Fresno State vs UNLV Odds

Friday, Nov. 11
10:30 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Fresno State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-9.5
-105
61.5
-110o / -110u
-350
UNLV Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+9.5
-115
61.5
-110o / -110u
+280
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Friday night in Las Vegas — few things are better. Well, that’s as long as you’re not UNLV, which finds itself 4-5 on the season and fresh off of a loss to San Diego State in a game it very well could’ve won.

It marked the Rebels’ fourth loss in a row and the third time in their last four games they’ve failed to score more than 10 points.

The struggling offense will need to fix things quickly as they welcome in the highest-scoring offense in the Mountain West: the Fresno State Bulldogs.

Fresno State enters this hot as it could be, riding a four-game win streak. With Jake Haener back under center, it has its sights set on the Mountain West Championship.

To do reach that game, the Bulldogs will have to win out. UNLV is just the next step on a long road to go. Can Fresno State stay hot?


Fresno State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs offense has been rolling, averaging 29.2 points and over 400 yards per game. This unit is highlighted by Haener, who has facilitated its elite passing attack and has looked even better since his return from injury.

The offense isn’t completely reliant on Haener and the pass either. Fresno State ranks 17th in Rush Success and averages 136.6 rush yards per game.

Jordan Mims, the lead back for the Bulldogs was pivotal to their success while Haener was out. He’s continued to be a game-changing factor for the Bulldogs Haener returned, specifically in the red zone. Mims has scored in each of Fresno’s last four games.

The Bulldogs have also impressed on defense, keeping teams to just 22.9 points and 262.2 yards per contest. The secondary has been the most consistent level of its defense, holding opposing teams to just 202.1 passing yards per game.

However, I think their front line can be the biggest factor against the Rebels. UNLV’s quarterbacks have been sacked 27 times on the season, while Fresno State ranks third in the Mountain West with 21 sacks on the year.

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UNLV Rebels

The Rebels offense does average 26 points and 347.9 yards per game, but they’ve been abysmal over the last month.

The return of their quarterback has not yielded the level of success Fresno State has seen. Doug Brumfield has been a liability, specifically when it comes to turnovers, throwing two interceptions against San Diego State last week.

Leading rusher Aidan Robbins went for 115 yards on 21 carries last week, and the Rebels should unleash a similar game plan against Fresno. Keeping the ball on the ground and out of Fresno State’s hands might be its best chance at stopping the passing attack.

Defensively, the Rebels haven’t been able to stop much of anything, giving up 28 points and 375 passing yards per game. The Rebels fell, 42-7, to Air Force, the second-best scoring team in the Mountain West.

I’m not sure we’ll see a different result against the only Mountain West offense that’s better than the Falcons.


Fresno State vs UNLV Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and UNLV match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 17 126
Line Yards 72 107
Pass Success 15 59
Pass Blocking** 116 61
Havoc 52 99
Finishing Drives 77 80
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UNLV Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 31 60
Line Yards 95 99
Pass Success 106 62
Pass Blocking** 16 106
Havoc 107 23
Finishing Drives 76 57
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 52 73
PFF Coverage 34 63
SP+ Special Teams 72 27
Seconds per Play 26.8 (74) 27.1 (87)
Rush Rate 50.3% (88) 53.4% (67)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Fresno State vs UNLV Betting Pick

The Bulldogs have been lacking when it comes to Finishing Drives and covering double-digit spreads, so there’s some concern there. But it feels like this team is only getting better with each game since Haener returned.

Sure, Fresno played Hawaii last week. The Rainbow Warriors might have one of the worst defenses in the country, but Haener’s performance was one of his best. He completed 24-of-29 passes for 327 yards and four touchdowns — and he didn’t even play the full game.

Playing on the road has not been a factor for the Bulldogs, and home-field advantage has been even less important for the Rebels.

I don’t see any way UNLV can stop Fresno State on Friday night other than maybe holding the ball as long as possible. But even then, UNLV is converting just 32.1% of its third-down attempts.

Back the Bulldogs as high as a 10-point favorite on Friday Night.

Pick: Fresno State -9.5 ⋅ Play to -10

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