NCAAF Odds, Picks for Georgia vs Florida
Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia’s Ladd McConkey.
Georgia vs Florida Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -600 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +425 |
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is set to determine the leader of the SEC East.
Georgia leads the all-time series 54-44-2 and has won five of the last six iterations against the Gators. Head coach Kirby Smart has led the charge during the winning streak and is looking to get the Bulldogs in position for a third national title.
This game will have plenty of intrigue from the Georgia offensive side, as its missing one of the best weapons in all of college football.
A victory from Florida will put head coach Billy Napier in the driver’s seat of the SEC East. The Gators' only conference blemish came on the road in Week 5 against Kentucky, a team with two losses in the division standings.
Florida has rebounded since the loss to the Wildcats, blowing out Vanderbilt and surviving a shootout with South Carolina in Week 7.
Both teams enter this game coming off a bye week, and the winner will have the inside track to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game.
The big news heading into Jacksonville is the loss of tight end Brock Bowers, who is undergoing tightrope surgery for an ankle injury. The junior has amassed a team-high 51 targets, taking the bulk of his catches behind the line of scrimmage.
Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo took over the position from Todd Monken, who departed for the Baltimore Ravens. The Bulldogs were expected to adopt the Monken offenses of previous years, using heavy motion and misdirection to feed Bowers the ball between the hash marks.
There has been explosiveness out of other weapons for quarterback Carson Beck, as wideouts Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Rara Thomas have combined for 44 targets with an average of 2.4 yards per route run.
Oscar Delp will serve as the starting tight end with Bowers out, but expectations are low, as he has just 16 targets on the season.
With the injury to Bowers, Georgia is expected to play less 12 personnel and more 11 in single tight end sets. The Bulldogs have been twice as explosive with a higher Success Rate in 11 than 12 personnel.
As for the passing zones where Bowers feasts on opponents, Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett should take over as the hot read from the slot position. Lovett had a season-high nine targets in relief of Bowers against Vanderbilt in Week 7.
The junior has a history as one of the most explosive slot targets in the country after averaging a monster 2.9 yards per route run in 76 targets for the Tigers last season.
The transfer of Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz has been a success for the Gators. The fifth-year senior has his lowest Turnover Worthy Play rate of his career, logging just a single mistake in the opener against Utah.
Florida ranks 12th in FBS in On-Target Rate, a statistic that captures the highest level of accuracy in which the receiver does not have to make adjustments. Mertz has thrived against Cover 3 and Quarters coverage, struggling only with secondaries that flash Cover 2.
The Gators have the 41st-highest rate of Standard Downs thanks to running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne, who are both averaging more than five yards per carry.
The inside and outside zone run concepts have been successful, despite Florida ranking 129th in average third down distance (8.3 yards per attempt). The Gators have struggled to create pass explosives, often leaving Mertz in scramble opportunities.
The Graham Mertz Experience pic.twitter.com/YkU0oCAb12
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) September 16, 2023
The defense has been completely revamped since the 2022 campaign, as 29-year old Austin Armstrong brings a multiple look from Southern Miss. The Gators play a nickel package, mixing two, three and four down lineman with a blitz percentage of 38%.
Florida has been fantastic against the rush, ranking top-10 in terms of Success Rate and limiting explosives on the ground.
The place to beat the Gators' defense has been through the air, as Florida ranks last in allowing explosives in Standard Downs.
Despite the healthy amount of blitz, Armstrong’s defense has been unable to generate consistent pressure or defend opponent scoring opportunities.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia and Florida match up statistically:
Georgia Offense vs. Florida Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 82 | |
| Quality Drives | 4 | 47 |
Florida Offense vs. Georgia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 51 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 6 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 110 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 70 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 15 | 13 |
| Middle 8 | 13 | 40 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (92) | 30.0 (117) |
| Rush Rate | 47.6% (93) | 50.8% (89) |
Georgia vs Florida
Betting Pick & Prediction
The game plan for Georgia is straightforward, as Florida has been excellent against the rush and leaky against the pass.
The injury to Bowers will open up downfield verticals for the Bulldogs against a Florida defense that runs a Cover 3 package. Beck has lived comfortably against Cover 3 across 141 snaps this season, posting high marks in Success Rate and explosives.
Lovett will work the same zones as Bowers from the slot position, as he's caught 20 of 25 targets in-between the hash marks this season. Beck has been excellent on passing attempts beyond 20 yards this season, racking up nine Big Time Throws to just a single Turnover Worthy Play.
If the Gators' defense is ripe to give up pass explosives, will the offense do enough to keep this within two possessions?
Georgia bucked the trend of starting slowly in its victory against Vanderbilt, as it entered halftime up 24-7.
The one weakness of Georgia is more self-induced, as the pass rush ranks outside the top 100. That number is a result of the Bulldogs sending a low amount of blitzes with four or less defenders.
Georgia prefers to stay in Quarters coverage, ranking top-10 in opponent Passing Success Rate. Florida is at a heavy disadvantage on third downs in this matchup. It's converting at a rank of 108th and is facing a Bulldogs defense that is best overall in the nation. Of the 89 attempts from opponents, Georgia has allowed just 21 conversions.
Georgia is on pace to break the single-season third-down defensive all-time rate of 21% from the 2016 Michigan Wolverines.
Georgia has a history of sleepwalking through the first half of the season before the transcendental curve turns upwards. There are heavy advantages for Georgia in the passing game against the Florida defense, as Beck will look to spread the ball to other explosive targets without Bowers.
Florida has plenty of positives this season on the offensive side of the ball, including a rank of seventh in Quality Drives. The Gators should have a few methodical drives resulting in points, but staying ahead of the chains is key.
With the Georgia defense maintaining the best third-down unit in the nation, and with Florida’s offense near the bottom in average distance to go, the Gators will only survive with successful plays on first downs.
Considering Georgia is fifth in Defensive Success Rate on first downs, this could be a long cocktail party for the Gators.
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