Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Pick, Odds: Bet Saturday’s Underdog?

It's time to take a look at the Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana odds and make a prediction for Saturday's college football New Orleans Bowl.

The New Orleans Bowl has been played since the turn of the century, moving from Lafayette to the Superdome in 2006. R+L Carriers has sponsored the bowl since the move to New Orleans in a game that generally pits the Sun Belt versus Conference USA.

Jacksonville State will play in its first-ever bowl after moving to FBS this season, led by a head coach with plenty of postseason experience. Rich Rodriguez has coached in 12 bowls during his time as head coach of Arizona, Michigan and West Virginia.

However, Rodriguez has generated a poor 3-9 mark against the spread in bowls.

This will be Louisiana's seventh appearance in this bowl since the 2011 season.

Head coach Michael Desormeaux was named head coach of the Ragin' Cajuns two years ago, winning his first-ever game in this very bowl against Marshall.

Conference USA snapped the Sun Belt five-game winning streak last season. Now, an upstart Jacksonville State squad looks to compromise a Louisiana team that makes frequent stops in New Orleans during December.

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Jacksonville State completed a tremendous opening season of FBS play with eight wins, well above a preseason win total of 5.5.

The offense is cut straight from the textbook of a Rodriguez offense. The Gamecocks are always playing with tempo at 21.2 seconds per play, electing to run on 55% of snaps.

They run a heavy amount of inside zone behind quarterback Zion Webb and running back Malik Jackson. Webb has been lethal in passing downs with 21 rushing attempts going over 10 yards this season.

There are injuries to monitor for a defense that pivots between nickel and dime packages with a three-man front.

Edge Jaylen Swain is second on the team in pressures but is listed as doubtful for the New Orleans Bowl. The secondary could be missing cornerback Derek Carter, who contributed six pass breakups this season.

Jacksonville State finished top-five in Defensive Line Yards and Success Rate against the rush, dominating teams that run power and outside zone.

Louisiana started a number of quarterbacks under center this season, settling in with Chandler Fields as the starter in Week 11 against Southern Miss. The fifth-year quarterback has logged seven touchdowns to just a single interception in three games as the starter, dominating Louisiana-Monroe in the finale to become bowl-eligible.

Similar to Jacksonville State, the Ragin' Cajuns are a run-first team on offense. Running back Jacob Kibodi has produced 19 explosive runs while being targeted 13 times out of the backfield.

Louisiana has dominated in all run concepts from inside to outside zone, along with man-blocking schemes.

The Cajuns need to stay in standard downs because that's where they own a rank of 17th in Success Rate. When they get off schedule, that number plummets to 74th.

While the offense has been successful on the ground, the opposite is true for the defense.

Louisiana sits 121st in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, ranking near dead last in Stuff Rate. Nearly every run concept attempted by the opposition has succeeded against the Cajuns defense.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Jacksonville State and Louisiana match up statistically:

Jacksonville State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	44	121
Line Yards	99	120
Pass Success	105	70
Havoc	48	101
Finishing Drives	86	114
Quality Drives	104	84

Louisiana Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	28	4
Line Yards	14	5
Pass Success	23	71
Havoc	85	30
Finishing Drives	43	25
Quality Drives	48	9

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	79	73
PFF Coverage	57	65
Special Teams SP+	80	21
Middle 8	63	12
Seconds per Play	21.2 (1)	27.2 (72)
Rush Rate	64.5% (6)	56.1% (41)

The biggest gap in the 2023 New Orleans Bowl is Louisiana's inefficiency at defending the rush. Not only are opponents successful in that area, but the Ragin' Cajuns are bottom-10 nationally in allowing explosive runs.

The saving grace for Louisiana might be an improved tackle grade, along with Jacksonville State's issues in the red zone. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 14th in broken tackles allowed, indicating the Gamecocks will not accumulate many yards after contact.

Meanwhile, Finishing Drives has been a consistent issue for Rodriguez's bunch, as Jacksonville State averages just 3.7 points on 82 drives that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.

Other circumstances may limit the number of points on the board for the Gamecocks, as kicker Alen Karajic is the only transfer portal entry for Jacksonville State.

Rodriguez had 21 fourth-down attempts this season, converting only nine. Without any experience at placekicker, expect to see plenty of fourth-down attempts to gain a first down or score a touchdown.

The Action Network projection on this bowl game landed Louisiana by a field goal, but the opening market saw nothing but steam on Jacksonville State.

Even with two possible injuries on the defensive side of the ball, Louisiana has seen a six-point swing in the market.

Look for the Gamecocks defense to limit explosive runs for the Cajuns, while the Louisiana defense tackles well enough to prevent explosives and generate fourth-down stops.

Pick: Louisiana +3 or Better · Under 59.5 or Better

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