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The Michigan Wolverines take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Oregon is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +330 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The total is set at 38.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Oregon prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
Michigan vs Oregon Prediction
- Michigan vs. Oregon Pick: Under 38.5
My Oregon vs. Michigan best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Michigan vs Oregon Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +330 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Michigan vs Oregon point spread: Oregon -10.5 (-110), Michigan +10.5 (-110)
- Michigan vs Oregon over/under: 38.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Michigan vs Oregon moneyline: Michigan +330, Oregon -450
Michigan vs Oregon College Football Preview
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Utter Disarray
To be honest, I'm still a little flabbergasted by how bad it's been in Ann Arbor. To see Kyle Whittingham, who had an esteemed career in Utah for 20 years, go out like this is upsetting.
I just don't see how he stays on after this season. It's been madness. And seeing how he fired a guy he brought with him from Utah, offensive coordinator Jason Beck, midseason, it just feels like there's no order here.
Because Beck is now gone, offensive line coach Jim Harding is taking over. The problem is, Harding hasn't called plays before, and Whittingham acknowledged that he's not going to be involved. So, would it have been better to just stick with Beck? Too late now.
To Whittingham's defense, his offense had all the talent in the world, but zero execution.
Quarterback Bryce Underwood was such a disaster that the Wolverines had to turn to Tommy Carr. Wide receiver JJ Buchanan is the only player worth anything, while running backs Savion Hiter and Jordan Marshall average under four yards per carry.
So, would you be surprised, after telling you all that, that Michigan ranks 128th in standard down Success Rate and 109th in Havoc allowed? Of course you're not.
Luckily for the Wolverines, the defense has been this team's saving grace.
Defense has always been Whittingham's forte, so Michigan ranking 12th in the FBS, allowing an average of 16.2 points per game, is par for the course.
The Wolverines have managed to stifle both the run and the pass, ranking in the top 10 in Success Rate allowed.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Bouncing Back
Michigan followed in Oregon's footsteps because the Ducks fired their offensive coordinator, Drew Mehringer, a few weeks ago.
The Ducks, who had National Championship aspirations this season, sank early on and lost their quarterback, Dante Moore, who suffered a concussion but is now saving himself for the NFL Draft. So, it's been Dylan Raiola taking over under center.
Since Oregon fired Mehringer, assistant quarterbacks coach Jay Johnson has been calling plays, and his connection with Raiola has been palpable. Raiola's first action after Moore went so bad that third-string Brock Thomas started against Nebraska, but he ended up bouncing back.
Raiola's main target has been Dakorien Moore, who's been generating a ton of volume, including a two-touchdown game with over 120 yards two weeks ago against Northwestern.
We've also seen a major uptick in the run game. Jordon Davison is likely going to miss this game after hurting himself last week, but Dierre Hill Jr. has picked up the slack. Hill rushed 13 times for 75 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a 48-yard house call.
Despite all the flaws this team has, the defense has largely been a success. Chris Hampton seemingly has a solid grip on this unit.
This is still one of the best pass rushes in college football, led by Matayo Uiagalelei, Teitum Tuioti, Bear Alexander and A'Mauri Washington.
Michigan vs Oregon Pick, Betting Analysis
This is going to be an interesting duel. Oregon's offense has had a boost since the Mehringer firing, but I can absolutely see Michigan's defense control the pace of this game.
Don't worry about the Wolverines' offense; this won't be much of a fight on that end.
I mentioned earlier that Michigan is one of the worst teams in Havoc allowed. Well, Michigan's offensive line has been absolutely brutal, allowing 2.1 sacks per game, so I can absolutely see Oregon's defense feasting on Carr, or stuffing Hiter and Marshall.
This total is rightfully low at 38.5, and I tend to avoid going under when the total is lower than 40. But let's look at the numbers here.
In Michigan's nine games played, it has gone under 38.5 five separate times, and that's not including twice when it went to 39.
Because Oregon's offense is potent, the Ducks have only gone under 38.5 on two separate occasions, but one of those games came against UCLA, whose defense has been elite all season. The other went against Illinois, who oddly has been a sieve defensively.
I like this game to go under.
Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)
