Air Force vs. Navy Betting Odds & Trends: Service Academy Over/Under Trend Put to the Test on Saturday (Oct. 3)
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- Service academy teams feature the triple-option offense, which is extremely run-heavy and keeps the clock moving.
- In addition, these teams are uniquely qualified to stop other teams that run the option.
- With this in mind, Danny Donahue details a betting trend for Navy vs. Air Force with a 79.5% win rate over the last 15 years.
Air Force vs. Navy Odds
|Air Force Odds||+7 [Bet Now]|
|Navy Odds||-7 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||47.5 [Bet Now]|
|Time||6:00 p.m. ET|
With the Mountain West’s cancellation of fall sports, Air Force’s football season consists of just two scheduled games — and both will be worth taking note of for betting purposes.
Why? Because both will come against fellow service academy opponents: Army (Nov. 7) and Navy (this weekend).
If you’re still wondering why that matters, let me introduce you to a not-so-well-kept secret of the sports betting world.
Service Academy Over/Under Betting Trend
As you may or may not know, service academy football involves a whole lot of running. In 2019, for example, Army, Air Force and Navy ranked 128th, 129th and 130th, respectively, in passing play percentage. And yes, that’s out of 130.
Of course, the ball staying on the ground — provided runners stay in bounds in the later part of the halves — keeps the clock moving almost nonstop, which is naturally going to make it harder to rack up a high point total.
But what makes it truly special when two of these teams meet is that since they all play a similar style, they’re all well-practiced in defending it, so big plays become even more hard to come by.
You probably get where I’m going, so here’s the data:
Since 2005, games involving two of the three service academy teams have gone 35-9-1 to the under. That ridiculous 79.5% win rate has brought in 24.2 units of profit for a 53.7% return on investment.
Saturday’s over/under has seen a bit of back-and-forth movement early, opening as high as 48.5 before being bet down to 47, only to settle in the middle at 47.5 as of Tuesday morning.